SPY — knowledge base

Overview

SPY posted its second consecutive red week as of July 24, 2026, failing to reclaim the 10-week MA and losing the 8-week EMA on the weekly chart. Daily price action formed doji and Harami patterns with widening DMA spread. A gamma inversion now exists across all expiries, establishing a 738-740 magnet range. Significant new dark pool support sits at 738.44. Call wall at 739 and larger put wall at 730. VIX remains in a holding pattern ahead of potential inflection. Key near-term catalysts include FOMC, PCE, BOJ decision, and major earnings.

Key facts & figures

SPY lost 10-week MA and 8-week EMA on weekly chart
Key support level holding since May 11 [[s:98@00:00:43]]
New dark pool support level at 738.44 (2 billion shares)
Gamma inversion across all expiries; 738-740 range acts as strong magnet; call wall at 739, larger put wall at 730
MSFT, QCOM, META report Wednesday; AMZN, AAPL report Thursday
FOMC meeting Wednesday with 25 bps hike odds at 37.9%
June PCE and BOJ rate decision on Thursday; UMich expectations on Friday

Thesis & bull case

No explicit bull case presented. Narrator maintains short holding periods (no positions beyond two sessions, often going cash at close) due to instability. "I am still not holding positions for more than two sessions" — Michael Bento [[s:98@00:07:21]]

Risks & bear case

Base case is chop followed by potential selloff. Rough Q4 for stocks remains the likely scenario. Gamma inversion signals potential instability. VIX either crushed below 17 or overshoots normal range, serving as harbinger of large spike.

Timeline of developments

2026-07-25: SPY records second consecutive red week; loses 10-week MA and 8-week EMA; daily doji/Harami forms; new dark pool support at 738.44; gamma inversion across expiries creates 738-740 magnet; VIX holding pattern ahead of FOMC/PCE/earnings catalysts
2026-07-25: Additional details include call wall at 739 and put wall at 730; support held since May 11; widening DMA spread; last instance of losing 10-week MA with two red weeks and EMA8 breach occurred late February into early March [[s:98]]

Open questions

Will VIX remain below 17 or spike following next week's data releases?
How will gamma inversion resolve relative to 738-740 range?
What is the market reaction to FOMC decision and PCE print?

Notable predictions to track

Base case of chop then selloff into rough Q4 for stocks
VIX either crushed below 17 or overshoots normal range next week, signaling large spike
"Volatility will likely start to rise" — Michael Bento [[s:98@00:06:42]]