$IREN Weekly Space 4/26

Hosted by @Frans Bakker · 2026-04-26 · Tags: IREN

TLDR

The discussion centered on IREN's strategic advantage in securing grid-connected power, its potential 10–12 GW development pipeline, and expectations for continued AI data-center expansion at Childress, Sweetwater, Canada, and possibly Australia. Participants were broadly bullish about execution, Microsoft expansion, and Vera Rubin deployments, but cautioned that utility labor shortages, hardware delivery constraints, near-term revenue softness, dilution, and unclear guidance remain meaningful risks.

Speakers

Notable quotes

Transcript

Speaker 1: The. The.

Frans Bakker: Hey guys, good evening. Welcome to our Sunday night iron space that we try to organize every week. This week's a little bit later because I had some things I had to take care of 1st and I wasn't counting on Bitcoin Butcher to join me, but here we are. He's he's with us already. Welcome Butcher, how you doing?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Thanks for having me, Franz. Good to see everyone. And just in a hotel room in Cayman.

Frans Bakker: Yeah, I figured you're probably not outside in the pool right now, but you did a lot of hard work for our share price sitting in the pool all week. So thanks for that. And well, actually judging the overnight prices, kind of looks like you're in the pool right now anyway. But yeah, so for those of you who don't get it, Bitcoin Butcher is on a holiday with his with his wife for a week in Cayman Islands. And every time when it appeared that every time when he was sitting in the swimming pool, the share price of iron went up. At least that was what we concluded may or may not be true, but so basically that's the the gimmick. But anyway, I am not sure if if it's just overnight algos reacting to the Bitcoin surge, but you know, at the end of the day, risk on is all connected. So I usually judge Bitcoin as an indicator of the sentiment rather than a, you know, a real driver of of the share price of the the high beta stocks. But anyway, Friday was a little bit of a sell off, which I think Iran, you know, weathered pretty well relatively. I think we can be actually quite content with the the way the the stock performed on Friday. Some of the other names in the same industry like Core Weave and Ebus did pretty poorly. I, I had a discussion with someone, I forgot his name, but basically it was AII placed my bets that Nubius will never reach $200 or more per share. And he said that it will just need one anthropic deal and and they will be there, but it's doesn't look like they have any capacity left. So, yeah, to piggyback on that topic, I think the main topic this weekend was the delays in data centers, the whole topic around the grid. There was an article from the White House. Let me just put it in the nest. I wanted to talk about this post actually, I I hope that Mike Alfred would talk about this post during his space yesterday, but it was he didn't see my comment or it wasn't worth the his time. But I think this is a very interesting one to talk about today, as well as the the tweet from Dan Roberts and the article that he was reacting to that he feels to include in the Twitter version. But so, yeah, the, the general thesis of, of Iran is, has always been grid connected power is the most valuable kind of power and it's also the most scarce one and most difficult 1 to obtain if you're not taking years ahead to reserve capacity or form studies or anything of such nature. And well, already during the Bitcoin mining area era, we, we kind of figured out that Iran had this mysterious pipeline that they were always talking, talking about already in 2023 and 2024, I saw some of the pre IPOC decks where they had, you know, these unnamed sites all across the globe. Like there was a picture of Australia with one site at least that was pictured there. And over the time it slowly became clear that they have always been sort of sandbagging their pipeline. Initially it was we have over, we have over a GW more than what they disclosed. And that was before they announced Sweetwater. And then they came with Sweetwater, which was 1.4 GW and they still said we still have more than one GW in our pipeline on top of that. And then they came with Sweetwater 2. And then it was still, we have more than one GW. And then recently they changed to we have multiple gigawatts in our pipeline. And then they announced Oklahoma and they still have multiple gigawatts in their pipeline. So we're, yeah, so quick mass brings us to 4.6 GW of grid connected power with a firm interconnection agreements and yeah, energization dates. And then on top of that, they are saying they still have multiple gigawatts of grid connected power. So I will go on record here saying that I have basically gathered enough evidence in my Discord and subscriber channel that this pipeline and everything that they have announced already combined will easily surpass 10 gigawatts. And I think that it is most likely between 10:00 and 12:00 gigawatts that I can, you know, sort of pinpoint right now. And that would be power which they, you know, can draw from up to 2035, I guess. So it's not like it's power that's going to be available next year or something. I'm talking about their pipeline. So just to you know, I think it's some of this power will be 20/30/2029. For example, Oklahoma Aaron hasn't really talked about the the two faced part of the the the project. If you look at the filings that they did or at at least at the county documents that they have discussed for the tax abatement, it is 600 MW is the first phase and then one GW is the second phase. And with the utility they have two separate interconnection agreements and I think the 600 MW is a bit more firm and clear on the energization data. The one GW form phase two, but it's I think it will be 600 MW 1st and then a GW later. I think they're going to start building next year or at least like side civil works for the 600 MW and then the one GW will be rolled out I guess towards the end of the decade. So it's probably going to be be a phase project where they keep keep building and keep expanding the capacity. So this is also something which is why I I'm convinced of their 11:50 GW pipeline is iron isn't interested anymore in small sites. They've never really been interested in sites below 300 megawatts, but more recently they have just straight up said that they only looking at a GW and above, even for Australia for example, which is obviously pretty tough to, to realize. So I, I think at most it will get one GW size in Australia. I'm not like saying that it's going to be multiple GW sites over there, but just to give you an idea, there are probably like over 10 sites that we have, you know, in our in our focus for the long term. And let's just say if half of those are gigawatts and the other half is like between 300 and 500 gigawatts, you easily get to 12 gigawatts. So that's a little bit about how to how I get to these calculations. For example, there is one side that's not too far from Childress where they apply for 600 MW, which is very early stage, like pre study stage or at the study stage. So you know, we're probably talking about 20-30, but just to give you an idea, that is probably going to be 5-6 hundred MW and up and most like mostly a GW and up. So anyway, just to talk about, you know, the the strong suit of iron, they got their power secured for the coming 9 to 10 years. And I think if some of you may have recalled Dan Roberts saying in 2024, I'm already thinking about 2029. I've quoted him a couple of times, but this is what he's been doing for the last five to seven years is securing grid connected power well into the future. So we are all reaping, you know the benefits of that now with the Sweetwater and you know Oklahoma's of of their portfolio. So anyway, so Iron is doing really well on this front, but there are a lot of other companies that are, you know, having some issues with getting grid connected power and a lot of them have diverted to behind the meter. And well, we've heard Dan Roberts on our space talk about behind the meter and I agree with him that grid connect power is way superior. But also the whole problem with the behind the meter power is that it's, you know, is the drawing from a pool of long lead time items that are in high demand, especially the turbines. And even having secured some turbines doesn't mean that you can just go ahead and power them because, you know, there are certain permits that are required. And it is also not easy, just as simple as a firing them up and connect the the racks. You know, there is a, a different process going on with these things to maintain your uptime. So I'm not extremely well educated in the behind the meter, you know, power. But I'll just say that I think there's a big part of the whole talk about delays for data centers. It's going to, you know, be around behind the meter. I think well, you know the the projects that we know about that have firm power grid connected power with energization dates, they are going ahead. As we saw for example Stargate phase one is grid connected and they have delivered that. But now they are running into the issue that the substation that they have and the line that's running into the site is only 138 kilovolts. And you know, you can only draw so many power from that and it's certainly not enough to power the whole Stargate site. So I think they diverted to gas turbines as well. And I was informed that they sort of received the wrong ones or I'm not entirely sure how it went. But just to give you an example that if you don't perform your right due diligence and your studies in advance and your research and you go ahead and you start a 1.2 GW project on a 138 kilofolt substation, you're going to run into limits and constraints. And I think This is why it's interesting to see that iron has done a 750 MW size at Childress on a 345 kilofolt line and substation. You see that there's less capacity, but higher voltage line. So you know, the the vision of the iron guys versus the Crusoe and Lancium guys is very different. You know, iron is always targeting 345 kilovolt lines. They're not going with this smaller substation, these lower voltage lines, because ultimately that just means that your capacity is, you know, you're you're more capacity limited going into the future. So I guess I could run a whole monologue about why grid connected power is superior and why I think iron is positioned, you know, very well in this regard. But I think it is, there are more things to talk about when it comes to delivery of data centers. It's not just about power, even though power is becoming trendy again, like last year, I think the first half of 2025, the big buzz was around power, power, power. And then in the second-half of last year, it turned to chips again and memory and, you know, other components in the in the chain. And now I, what I'm seeing in the first half of this year so far is that despite the constraints around chips and memory, the number one being mentioned by stakeholders is power again. And yeah, I think that a big part of the delays is most likely actually attributed to the lack of firm power. So, yeah, maybe I'll pause there and give maybe Butcher, maybe you can talk a little bit about that. How did you read Dan's tweet? Did you think he was talking bullish about Iran and just forgot to link the article talking about delays and or do you think that he was trying to temper expectations? Maybe we can talk a little bit about his tweet and because it's in the light of this subject, so like to hear your thought.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Yeah, Full disclosure, I scratched my head initially when I read it, but I was also at a dinner with a wine tasting that was like 4 or 5 drinks deep. So I think it probably overreacted a little like some of us if you did because we're all human. But I took a step back this morning and I viewed it more as a soft flex on his part. We could talk about semantics and was it effective messaging or whatever it is. But I think given the context of industry wide delays and then considering that just a few weeks ago he was echoing that Horizon one through 4 remain on track. So I think it's more him speaking to when we interviewed him how they're putting out hundreds of fires simultaneously and it's a challenging job. But in spite of that, they continue to deliver or deliver at least better than their peers. So I think it was more him saying that we have a lot to look forward to with respect to the pipeline you spoke to. But I think just the existing sites and being on time. And I, I think what I want to see at earnings specifically is I wish they would give more color on I think people still and we're going to see we've estimated 60 to $80 million from Canada with Prince George on AI revenue. So revenue aside, I think it's just more this theme of time to compute, time to compute. Well, I think it's possibly just them like creating a timeline and just saying day one we start the retrofit, Day 60, we're plugging in GPU's, Day 90, they're burnt in and they start producing revenue. But some sort of visual to help Southside actually understand why having those air cooled DC's are a competitive advantage not only in Canada, but also it appears in Childress that they're leaning in that direction. So I think for the foreseeable future, certainly we see progress with the Sweetwater site, but it's also understandable if they're holding off for Reuben. I'd personally going into the next few weeks here, I'd like to see with children specifically, I think that's the lowest hanging fruit where we can produce revenue quick enough and also at a fraction of the price via retrofitting as opposed to doing Greenfield site development. And then you talked. Earlier about the whole pipeline, I I was interested in your view, I put in the nest. It appears there might be additional power in Canada, whether it was new sites or if it was additions to existing sites. It appears Canada power comes at a premium, which might be valuable for inference from a hyperscaler or an enterprise. And then lastly, the the marketing spend that we've seen, it appears to be millions of dollars being spent in Australia, whether it's sponsoring the Sydney Swans or having marketing dollars spent on the trams that the public transportation. So they're clearly trying to make their presence felt in their home of Sydney. But the question is why? And but I again to full circle, I think the biggest opportunity for them to show incremental progress while the rest of the pipeline kind of, it might take longer and it's not tomorrow, but they have a vision for the next 10 years as you were speaking to. But my immediate focus is on Childress for the reasons I've stated.

Frans Bakker: Yeah. So I've made some theories about extra power in Canada. As you know. You know, there are a couple of sites that we've also been looking at that have not been disclosed. But you know, I don't see that as something that's going to happen anytime soon. I think the additional capacity would have to come from expansion projects, like, for example, the 30 to 35 megawatts in Prince George or the 20 megawatts in Mackenzie. I have, yeah. I've kind of given up on that since, you know, they've started to become extremely fake about the data center they build in Prince George when Dan said it was immaterial, 10 megawatts immaterial. I also kind of revised my look on the on the layout of the data center. If you remember initially they added the extra data center in a earnings presentation where it was comprised of eight squares and two of them were colored as to be the 10 MW proof of concept for liquid cooling where they would deploy the GB three hundreds that they acquired. But I think looking back and after my careful consideration and analyzation of the size, I think those were not, you know, 5 MW quarters making it like a, you know, like a 40 MW building. I think it was just a 2.5 megawatts compartment like that would make it like still 10 MW overall. So I, I kind of gave up on the whole extra power coming. I know that that the former VP of OPS for Canada, who is now VP of of OPS globally, Glenn has mentioned in an interview that there would be 30 megawatts coming to P to PG and 22 Mackenzie. I still have a clip somewhere to where he's saying that, but it's just, you know, it's never been mentioned again. No one talks about it. Maybe it's just very difficult right now in in Canada where I think new projects need to apply for some kind of tender or I don't know, like they need to get allocated capacity for a certain amount of time, like for one or two years. And yeah, I mean, I guess there are other interesting things. I don't know, maybe Canada will come at a premium, but I think there we should rather look at Kennel Flats for something, you know, material. I think it is obvious that they left Kennel Flats out of their 2026 guidance. It's 30 MW. It will be mining Bitcoin until September. That was at least what they initially said, but it seems to me that, you know, if you have a retrofit of a couple of weeks, which have been, you know, pounding the table on like, oh, we just roll out the Bitcoin mining ASICS and then, you know, we do a little bit of work here, add some generators and then roll in the GPU racks. It's yeah, nothing has actually been, you know, shown that it's, it's, it's that quick. They can retrofit in a couple of weeks, sure, But if you're waiting for generators that take a couple of months and for GPUs that take six months, then what? What is the, you know, what is your strength here in retrofit time? So honestly, I, I think that candle Flats is a part of, you know, a 2027 delivery for compute and that would most likely point at Rubens. So I kind of, that's why I always kept kind of flats as a part of the earnings report. I'm, I'm putting Australia a little bit lower on my priority list or slash wishlist if you will. I know that Australia has seen a lot of advertising and they've had obviously been into conversations with Microsoft and Tropic and there's been this new entity that they created in New South Wales. And I think the most recent thing that we saw is they are hiring a substation engineer or substation designer for for their Sydney office. And you know, I know that it's initially we thought that these would just be like remote workers that would work from the office and provide support around the clock for the time zone difference to, to work with like engineers in Texas or Canada. But we've now actually seen the wording data center sites, Australian data center sites and boots on the ground and what not. So I see we have a speaker who is from Australia. If I, if you're an Adelaide United fan, then maybe you're from John. Do you have any thoughts on Australian projects or iron in general your first time come to speak with us? Let us know your thoughts. Go ahead or not. If you want to speak then just raise your hand going forward. I thought I'd just give you a chance to speak now. But anyway. So yeah. So despite all the advertisements and tram sponsors and whatever we've seen in Australia from iron, this one's sponsorship as well, I don't think it is like imminent for a commercial deal myself. I think personally there are other projects that are, you know, more urgent, as you said, Butcher Childress is most likely, you know, more imminent obviously because there's already data centers there and power running. And then of course the Sweetwater side and the whole things, you know, the things in Canada are probably more easy to contract as there's already power flowing. But nevertheless, I still think Australia is on my list. I just would expect that if they announce something, it is most likely a site.

Speaker 4: Project with a tenant or a customer or a joint venture partner. So I think it's probably more complex. I think you know, could be this earnings or could be the next. At the very least I think they'll mention something around Australia during the earnings. It's pretty material if you're starting to hire like a twenty 3050 people and spend a couple of million on advertisements in in the country, Maybe it's worth a question from an analyst at least. So let's see if.

Frans Bakker: I mean, I, I posed a question to Dan and myself like what's going on? Why, what's up with all the sponsorships? And then he just started to talk about we have a global focus, but also a focus on Australia. I think that now, I think it's been like a month or a month and a half since we had that space. I think now it's, you know, they probably have something more to talk about now, especially since the creation of that subsidiary and a bunch of other rumors that have come from SA. So let's see. But my personal expectation is #1 will be the announcement of Horizon five and six. That is the absolute number one that I expect to happen between this very moment and May 7th on or before May 7th. So I think they're going to talk about that because it's going to happen. I think they're going to talk about, you know, displacing some miners in Childress, potentially clearing some area, maybe demolishing a couple of mining buildings in the process. I think right now these things are still unconfirmed, but it's very likely to happen. And this is also a bit of a confusing topic within the IRN investors on on Twitter. Why is IRN talking about air cooling, air cooling, air cooling, and then they start to talk about Horizon 5 to 6 being liquid cooled again. So I think this could only be indicative of a, you know, strong customer demand and potentially better deal terms because, you know, for iron to go back into the 10 to 12 million a megawatts in cutbacks for data centers, they probably need to have a much better top line to justify that. So I'll add to that expectation of Horizon five and six that it's I, I, I'm going to go on a record here and say that it will also be with Vera Rubens. So I think, you know, obviously Microsoft would be the most easy customer and I think it makes sense if it's called Horizon 5 and 6. I cannot 100% say that it will be called Horizon 5 and 6. I just, I'm pretty sure about there will be 100 MW of IT load coming liquid colds in Childress. And I just think it will make absolutely zero sense to start construction for data Center for for two data centers well or six buildings I guess in the middle of 2026 when Ferro Rubin's coming in around the time those will be finished. So I think it will be for Ferro Rubin and I think.

Speaker 4: We will also hear something about conclusion of the substitution clause for horizon 3 and 4. Horizon three and four look very different from horizon one and two. I think tomorrow I'll I'll get a new satellite image from Childress which could maybe give us a a few hints.

Frans Bakker: But to give you one example, there are no roof fence on Horizon 3, which is very weird because Iran has always build data centers with roof fence. And the newest three buildings don't have any fence on top there. There is no inlets. There are no, you know, it's like a solid roof. And there are also no side inlets. There are, you know, no filter bags have been spotted. It's a it's a different design again. So first we see Horizon one with a liquid cooling facility or, or liquid cool cooling plant, I guess with the fans hanging down. And then Horizon 2 sees a completely different design where there are like fins on top, even though the data centers and everything is the same as between Horizon 1:00 and 2:00. But they changed the design of the liquid cooling plant. Maybe it's a different supplier or maybe it's a different version or I don't know, iteration. And then Horizon 3, all of a sudden they have changed the data center itself and they have decided that, OK, now we're going to stop using roof fans and side inlets. I guess it's part of the whole best practices and refinement process that they run. But it's, you know, interesting to see that within a set of four, Horizon one to four, they've already made three changes in the first 3. And you know, obviously the wells, those big rounds towers where they store the water have been built for all four of the data centers. But for example, the liquid cooling plant for Horizon 3 has not been built yet. So the, and the the fourth data center, Horizon 4 is also seeing something new is where they are doing all the underground work first and doing the concrete shells, I mean the concrete and the shells later. So I think, you know, we talked a lot about what, why is Horizon one to four and the Microsoft contracts, you know, why does it have a negative, you know, NPV, why is it a single digit IRR and levered? Why is it a bad deal? You know, but at the end of the day, you're going to see that this is a, you know, it's a first project. It's like a test tube baby. And it's, you know, let's not forget that Iron and Microsoft are not just customer and supplier, they're also partners in design. And I think that that's, that's why you see these refinements through the process of the construction. And I think it's going to look really funny. If you see a satellite image in a year from now, you're going to see the top few of the Horizon 124 and it's going to look completely different like 1234. It's like, you know, pick your flavour. But you know, this was the same thing with the mining buildings. After all, like Block 1 was 20 MW buildings with these massive roof fans. And then Block 2 going forward had like these smaller roof fans and were 25 MW buildings. So I think, you know, going forward I think we're going to see a more unified design or like a standard design of a liquid cooling shell where they will apply all the best practices. So most likely Horizon 5 and 6 for example will look very much similar to horizon three and four rather than to horizon one and two. And I think.

Speaker 4: We'll see the same thing in Sweetwater where they will obviously not start over again with learning, but they will apply all everything they learned from the Microsoft deal. So I think the Microsoft deal is just a very fancy R&D project at the end of the day. It's not a cash generating project. It's, you know, it is, it's validation. It's a food in the door.

Frans Bakker: And it's a start of a partnership and it will give iron a very rich, you know, experience and skill set of delivering, you know, 200 kilowatt rack density, liquid cool data centers. And hopefully they will be able to deliver them at pace, a high pace. So that's how I see Childress, I expect. So I expect Horizon 5 and 6 announced with Fiora Rubin's decision around Horizon 3 and 4 substitution clause and potentially the announcement that they delivered the first data center of Horizon One. So the first building of the three to Microsoft. The GPU's are already on site and I expect them to be installed by now. The Horizon One first building has been fenced off, so it's now a security clearance event. So if you want to go inside, you need to show a badge. So it's like now it is really a Microsoft environment. So if you're not on the list and you're not getting in anymore, so that shows that it's in the hand over face. And I guess maybe Microsoft will be, you know, involved in the burning in process. But you know, we still have a 1 1/2 weeks until earnings. I think it's quite obvious they're going to announce, you know, a very triumphant handover of the first building, which is a bit meager. I can understand most of you were, you know, expecting all of this to happen 1/4 ago, but you know, to go back to dance tweed, the real world can't always keep up with the digital world and the the same thing applies to iron. But you know, on the one hand, we are investors and we want revenue to hit as soon as possible, but on the other hand, what is more important?

Speaker 4: If you look.

Frans Bakker: At Microsoft, the Microsoft contract has a liability. Then all you want is them not to.

Speaker 4: You know, get delays and penalties and just deliver within a certain grace period or you know, so let me just say that I would love to see the revenue hit earlier, but at the end of the day, I just want them to deliver on time. So since we don't know, what are the ultimate deadlines for the for the first three buildings?

Frans Bakker: All we all I can say is if they don't get any sort of delay or penalties, then it's fine for me, you know so and the biggest hurdle will always be the first building and then the second hurdle will be the first three buildings and then the third hurdle will be the first 100 MW cluster. So it will get easier, you know, I think it will get a lot easier.

Speaker 4: After the first building is delivered and then you know, going forward, it's just going to get to go a lot smoother. So yeah, if I look at the the quarter that they're going to talk about on May 7th, it's also most likely the last quarter where the revenue expectations will be, you know, a bit higher than what they're going to deliver. Obviously it's going to be a bit of a, you know, soft quarter in terms of AI revenue and in terms of, you know, overall revenue. I think Bitcoin was performing pretty poorly during the quarter. Not that it should be material, but you know, from a cash flow perspective, it would be nice to have a bit of mining revenue, but it was we've seen a lot of hash go down and Bitcoin being down South.

Frans Bakker: I think the best metric will be and I think they're going to milk that is the quarter of a quarter metric. So it's from $17 million to like say 60 or $65 million, it's going to be a 4X. So they're probably going to make the headline for 400% increase in AI revenue or something like that. You'll probably.

Speaker 4: Think back of this space when you see their earnings report, because I think it's going to be on the first page in big letters outside of obviously any other big announcements like, you know, Vera Rubin or Australia or something. But so, yeah, so I think that the May earnings will be the last sort of underwhelming earnings report in terms of the actual P&L. And so I think you know, it will be the one where they have to talk, where they will have to announce, where they have to guide, where they have to explain their ARR guidance with regards to the new purchase of the B3 hundreds.

Frans Bakker: It could be the earnings where they announce a new GPU purchase. I think it's about time that they start to do this, particularly if they've raised money through the ATMI. Think it will be wise if they will pair that with a announcement of GPUs because not not to say that I want them to pay for the GPUs with the ATM, raise money, but just to lever the you know.

Speaker 4: The equity in terms of adding depth, so I see new GP US as a form of debt because I think that they are you know bankable in terms of you know acquire them and then 30 days later you can pay for them, but you can finance them with a GPU. Debt finance, I think if iron raises equity for the purpose of leveraging.

Frans Bakker: The balance sheet, I think I'm OK with that, even though you know, obviously the, you know, the past months the price has been absolutely horrific. So I would be slightly, I would, I would be disappointed if they have raised in the 30s honestly. But you know, since we know.

Speaker 4: The Dan likes to tap the ATM at $6 as well. Who knows, they may have raised at 3030 one $32. You know, at the end of the day, it's accretive, right. So yeah, I, I see we have a a new speaker.

Frans Bakker: Bitcoin, you butcher, you let him come up. Maybe you want to introduce Chase and have a little chat with him. I'm going to grab something to drink.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Chase, come on up. How are you this evening?

Speaker 1: I'm good, I'm good. How are you?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Doing wild, you got the floor. What would you like to talk about?

Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. I just wanted to add a little insight in regards to the power secure process. I, when I first started my career, well, couple of years ago, I used to work for a major utility company in the South of the United States. And there was just constant discussions about headcount issues in regards to what it means to, to, to train their, their lineman or the people that work that are working on substations, right? The Apprentice program is roughly 3 to 4 years. And there's a really high turnover rate. That's just public information as well. And what, what makes it really grueling is that they have to wear these, these like PPE clothing. So it's like these like thick, thick, you know, long, long sleeves, long pants, material that's supposed to protect them and they're dealing with electricity or on these construction sites. And so there's just a low pass rate when it comes to The Apprentice program. So, you know, we have all you're hearing about all of these plans to, I guess, secure power for these companies, but it's just not as cut and dry now. I think it's important to be mindful that the company that I worked for was very had strong like operational excellence piece to it. But essentially there's a, there's, there's like a headcount issue. And I can imagine it's only increasing because the energy demands also increasing. And then I used to have conversations with just some of the engineers as well. They're, they're stressed out, they're overworked. So it's on both sides. I know a lot of companies are announcing, you know, what they want to do and so forth, but I think the timelines might be optimistic. But that's just my perspective.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: So if I'm understanding it correctly, you formerly worked in the utility sector? I'm kind of reading this back just to make sure if anyone missed what you said. You worked in the utility sector and given the labor requirements for lineman, I think you said and it's a high turnover apprenticeship program that leads you to believe that some of these timelines for the utility delivering the requested capacity you find you are I, I would say skeptical. Is that a fair assessment?

Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. I think, you know, they're, they're giving the, they always give the conservative case whenever they're doing projections, but I am skeptical on whether or not they will consistently hit their mark. So it's just something to be mindful of when people are super excited about, you know, future demand coming online and so forth. But it's just not cut and dry. But I think everyone's aware of that, so.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: What would you say just playing both sides of it? I think it's a good point for the industry, but I think I would playing devil's advocate after hearing Franz speak earlier if you weren't on, he's estimated we've announced 4.5 gigawatts of power through let's say 20272028 with Oklahoma. But with the remaining pipeline, it might end up being 11:50 gigawatts. And given the company's ability to build that might cover them through let's say 20-30 or 2032 does that. And I didn't ask are you a shareholder or you just interested in the topic? Or maybe that would help too?

Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, Iron, yeah, shareholder, but no, I, I, I, I can't really speak on or I don't really have much insight on like what how people are going to hit their targets or if it is achievable. You know, I feel like, you know, Iran has displayed that operational excellence piece and they're pretty good at projecting timelines, but I'm not sure when it comes to the other companies and those discussions. So but yeah, that's pretty much it. I just wanted to get.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I think that makes me more sorry to interrupt. I would, I guess my point is that makes me bullish assuming they can deliver on time, which so far we have and I think that's the point of differentiation. I guess that's the whole point of Dan's relaying the delays in the industry is to differentiate Iron amongst its competitors. And you have newer behind the meter participants that haven't built the data center yet or legacy Bitcoin miners. They've signed a deal and they actually signed deals prior to Iron yet Iron's delivering Horizon one before they've completed their first data center. So personally that gives me confidence I'd, if I'm being, I think what I would want to see from Iron, there were acceleration fees that was $2,000,000 per MW that are part of the reason why Horizon one through 4 cost roughly 15,000,000 per MW. So a little ran a little higher than everyone was expecting, which I think was initially a shock. So I hope Kent and Anthony and Dan are able to convey whether we should expect to see that going forward. Like if they're, if they are locking up deals with some of the parties, we hope that they team up with is them, are we expected to pay that acceleration fee going forward or is the client going to start paying a premium because they're realizing no one else can deliver at the pace iron can? So those are, you know, I, I remain bullish, but I try and be self critical of my hypothesis. And that's one thing that I noticed last time that I would like to see as it pertains to DC construction related to Horizon 5:00 and 6:00. What I wasn't able to comment earlier while Franz was discussing it everyone is if Horizon one through 4 if you guys remember was 300 gross megawatts out of 750 at Childress, but it was 200 megawatts of critical IT which is you have the critical, IT is what you can run the GPUs on, whereas the rest of it supporting infrastructure for cooling and just background power and kind of support for the DC. So if we assume Horizon five and six are half the size of Horizon one through 4, conservatively that project horizon one through 4 was $2 billion annually of recurring revenue or 1.9. So on a terrible day, I think we can expect an additional $1 billion of forward ARR. But given that it's Ruben, I kind of, I'm not sure if Franz is back yet, but I would be interested in his perspective on this. But we're running GV three hundreds at Horizon one through 4. He's talked about how there's a clause in the contract where they could negotiate with Microsoft and Microsoft could upgrade to Rubens, which is part of the reason why Horizon one through 4 had flexible racks where they could shift from. I believe it's 130 kilowatt rack density for GV three hundreds and now up to 200 for Verirubin. Now with five and six. If there's studies that show that Ruben will be three to five times more effective than the GB 300 for inference, why that matters is those are more tokens it can produce and tokens our consummate with revenue. Now the cost of the token will go down overtime, but I find it hard to believe that we're only going to get a billion dollars out of Horizon 5 through 6. And I would think it's closer to 1.5 billion to $2 billion, which given that our current guidance is $3.7 billion. If you can add an additional 1 1/2 billion dollars that gets you over 5 billion and you know 2 would get you closer to 5.7 or just shy of 6. So I think that even though it's only two data centers per SE, that just speaks to the power of Ruben and I, I think that's an opportunity for the guys on the call to speak to is how they are maximizing the value per MW. And that given that there are delays in the marketplace, they might not sign something immediately, even if it's for air cooled DC's because they're waiting on GPU delivery. And if there's a shortage of data centers and a shortage of available GPU's, then it's quite likely that the price is going to rise and they're going to agree upon contract terms right before they install it to optimize the amount of revenue that they're generating per MW. So those were just a few thoughts, friends, that I had from earlier that I couldn't get in. But Chase, thanks for coming up. You're welcome to raise your hand if there's anything else you want to speak on. But related to your question, like I think your skepticism of our competitors is not only is it healthy, but it actually makes me more more bullish about the company that we own.

Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah. No, I totally agree. And I think, I think what's interesting as well is that before this whole, before the entire AI discussion, tech companies were having regular capacity issues when it came to data centers. And of course, the whole AI made that even worse. But no, overall, thanks for bringing me up. I've been listening to you guys for a long time now. So it's nice to be on stage and just kind of hear you, hear your hear everyone's thoughts.

Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah. Thanks for coming up, Chase. I didn't hear everything you said, but for the most part, I got it. So you're welcome to join us in the future. So yeah, I I'm not going to go into delays at competitors now because that will turn into one Big Bear talk about Nibius, most likely. So I'm not going to go into that right now. I want to stay positive and focus on iron. So yes, Butcher, I have some thoughts on your thoughts. So let's take it apart and look at a few things that Iron has said and then we can go back and apply that to Childress. So first of all, we know that Iron has not oversubscribed their megawatts for Horizon. That means they have allocated 300 megawatts of gross IT, sorry, gross power to 200 MW of IT load, but it doesn't mean that they're going to use 300 MW. And actually it also means doesn't mean they're going to use 200 MW of IT load for Horizon one to four. They are applying this as sort of as a buffer and within those megawatts they're going to deliver the Microsoft contract, whatever that may be. So either it's GB three hundreds or it's a mix of GB three hundreds and Fiera Rubens. This, you know, that will depend on the substitution clause where I think they will have to make a decision for in May. There are a bunch of other things that Irons also said that I think initially when they were talking about the last 75 megawatts that was available. If you remember, originally Block 6 was placed right around the place where there was a, a parking lot now, so, so if you remember, they used to have these drawings in the monthly OP reports where you would see block 12345. And then block 6 was placed like right below block 5 where there is now, you know, web station and some other things. But back in the day, there was only 100 MW left after the 650 MW of Bitcoin mining. And they had said that they would build you, you know, they would go to 52 exa hash and for this last two exa hash, they would build 125 MW building right below the substation for that. That's primary substation 6, which is actually that substation is still there. It's now powering Horizon 123 of a willpower Horizon 123. But my point is there was 75 MW left that they were were discussing what to do with it. And then I think there was an analyst question during one of the earnings calls where they said that would you repurpose these buildings? And then the whole, you know, would you repurpose these mining buildings? And then I think then start to talk about, you know, like children's being an AG or something. Anyway, the bottom line of the whole conversation was that they said that they would rather just build a bunch of new Bitcoin mining buildings. You know, I think that yes, the the question from the analysts was in the future if AI would die, would you be able to repurpose those? AI buildings to mining again and then that's when he said we would rather just build a bunch of Bitcoin mining buildings again. I think that was the the thing. So why am I saying this now is because I think that they are going to potentially, you know, take down a couple of mining buildings for liquid cooled AI buildings now. And I think that this speaks volume of the, you know, incentive from the customer to, you know, because, you know, they have been boasting about, oh, we have so much space in children's, we could expand to the east and to the South. And it's true that the footprint of the side is huge and they have a lot of unused ground that they could build on. So, you know, why do they decide to, you know, physically build Horizon 5 and 6 next to 1 to four? That's most likely because they are going to, you know, sell it to the same customer. So I kind of got this thought while I was, you know, reacting to your your thoughts, Butcher. So I think 5:00 and 6:00 will most likely go to Microsoft as well. And you know if substitution clause will go to Ferro Rubin, that means that you will see Ferro Rubin in three and four and then also in five and six. And with regards to your acceleration fee, I don't think that's going to be applied because the acceleration fee was for Microsoft. I know Jim, Jim Liu has some different thoughts on this. He says it was just to pay for getting the long lead time items quicker. And you know, Irene had to pay a surcharge for that. I think it was more related to, you know, the staff, the the night shift workers and, you know, just get all the equipment faster. So not particularly just for for long lead time items. I think it's just an overall increase in workforce getting all the materials and all the cranes and everything to the site build out the workforce. I mean like they, they've hired like a / 100 pipe fitters in the last couple of weeks. They are really ramping up the workforce like crazy. Like hundreds of people are being added to this to the team per month. Like so it's so you know, it's it's going, I think that for a horizon five and six, they won't need to have an acceleration fee again. Why do I say that is because I think it's going to be for fewer Ruben. So I think the buildings can take a little bit longer to to be constructed because the chips will be only ready like let's say a year from now. So I think that with all the experience they got from Horizon one to four, I think they will be able to construct two more in a much faster fashion. So I think it's, you know, if they take their sweet time to build a very good Horizon 5 and 6 to be ready by H12027 with Vera Rubens for Microsoft, you know, there is no need for an acceleration fee because they can just keep doing what they've been doing, keep the same subcontractors, you know, apply best practices and all the refinements from Horizon one to two and just keep going. The only thing they needed to add is maybe demolition charges, maybe instead of an acceleration fee is a demolishing fee or something. So yes, so I think the focus will be on revenue per MW. And this is also our bread and butter from Bitcoin mining, obviously with the, you know, shoes for Terra. Hi Ash. Efficiency was always the number one thing what what attracted me in iron, you know, in regards to their Bitcoin mining economics. So I think that we're going to see this again in terms of the, you know, tokens per MW, revenue per MW. I think it's going to be what sets them apart from their competitors besides of course delivery and execution. So yes, I agree with you Butcher. I think they're going to squeeze out a lot more tokens, a lot more revenue out of the megawatts to have a children's then that they are currently guiding for. I think they are sandbagging. I think they are the way that Iran established their guidance is looking backwards and I think that is knowingly sandbagging. I think they are knowingly telling the market they're going to deliver poor results and then they when they actually do deliver, they want to surprise to the upside. I think that's the whole thing that they're doing. I can only say this obviously for so long because if they keep under delivering like with the $17 million of AI revenue in the last quarter, you know, at some point I I'm going to look like a fool. So obviously they have to surprise to the upside at some point. I don't think it's going to be this quarter though, but you know, going forward, I think that that's what's going to happen. So, but sure, go ahead.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Given the emergence of Horizon 5:00 and 6:00, that's 150 megawatts gross. You spoke to Horizon one through 4 being undersubscribed I think was your the terminology that you used. So there's certainly an opportunity to maximize revenue and Horizon one through 6, but that still leaves 300 gross megawatts and they previously allocated 17, 1000 GP US to Childress in their AK filing from March related to the 50K MW purchase. And I agree that that if you take the 1.3 million, excuse me, billion dollars and divide it by the 50,000 GP US comes out roughly to $3.00 per hour, which is roughly 25% increase versus the increase of the GP US and cost about 50%. So I agree with you Franz that they're sandbagging and I'd like to see that come to fruition at some point in the financial statements, whether it be May or August. But my follow up question related to your explanation on five and six is what about the remaining 300 megawatts? Does this change your opinion on what they're going to do with the rest of that site? Do you think it's still possibly Ironcloud being used for inference using air cooled data centers to retain the existing infrastructure? Or do you think now there's signal that whether it's Microsoft or another potential hyper larger enterprise may given the demand that Kent's spoken to and liquid cool, they might just say screw it and knock them all over. And then it might in the short term be viewed as a wasted data center. But they could build something that has a 20 to 30 year life as opposed to air cooled data centers that might realistically have a 5 to 10 year life. If you have any thoughts on that, I would be interested in hearing more.

Speaker 4: Yeah. So I think the time to data center time to compute and air cooled was indicative of customer interest and you know you can apply that as a sort of a BATNA I guess. But I think going forward I think that this is a consideration for IRN. You know, will we accept B3 hundreds to arrive in late Q4 or in Q1 of 2027 or do we just build VR200 data centers instead that we can deliver 1/4 later and get the chips then as well? You know, if the, it is like a, a chart where you know, first the, the, the, the Y will, will, the Y axis will go up in terms of deliver B3 hundreds, but then it will go down again in time where the VR2 hundreds is coming around, you know, around the corner. So I think that iron is now in the phase where they have to decide that, yeah, you know, will we take the lower CapEx and the lower revenue per megawatts from the B3 hundreds or do we just let those data centers be idle for two, 3-4 months and then slam dunk VR2 hundreds in there with a much higher revenue per MW? I think that the IT is likely that the B3 hundreds that they've ordered the 50 thousands where they directed 17,000 ish to Childress. I see a world where that those were the last B3 hundreds that they will ever order for Childress. I think that if the customer demand is so strong that they've already decided now that they're going to go ahead and you know, direct another 150 megawatts of gross power towards 100 MW of IT load. You know that now you're talking about 450 MW out of the 750 and then they have 50 MW already for the 17,000 B three hundreds. That leaves only 250 megawatts of gross power that is still left there. You could wonder if it is, you know, this is really worth to retrofit them only for B3 hundreds and go with these chips that are you know, if they'd if they haven't ordered them by now, Do you really think that B3 hundreds that will be ordered this this month or next month will arrive in 2026? I think it's unlikely. I think that this is also the reason why irons now, you know, looking at VR2 hundreds and especially given that Jensen has said that they will prefer delivering to customers that have, you know, capacity to run these GPUs for VR200. I think that, you know, there is a a likely situation that Irene will announce, you know, VR2 hundreds for the remaining capacity of Childress. I know that this is this sounds again like I am flip flopping and changing my mind completely, but I'm just following what I'm seeing. I mean.

Frans Bakker: If the B.

Speaker 4: Three hundreds would be the ultimate solution for ironed and they would have, you know, bought more by now. But instead what we hear is they have most likely decided to go with more liquid cooling there. So you know, if following the the facts on the ground, it appears that for now they are looking more at Ferro Rubin. And I think that outside of GB three hundreds for Microsoft and what they've ordered so far for Canada, I think the the main theme going forward is going to be Ferro Rubin. I think the IT makes the most sense. It is the best model to squeeze the most tokens and revenue per MW out of their existing data centers. I mean, out of their existing power infrastructure is a better way to say it because obviously if they knock down mining buildings, they can't you repurpose those. But yeah, so I am watching this closely. Another thing I could probably tell the tell the crowd here is that Iron's now deciding decided they're going to construct a man camp in Childress, which is another demonstration of Iron's finally thinking of where to sleep. These people that they are, you know, letting park outside of the parking lots because they are full, You know, the there are real world, real world constraints with having more than 2000 people on a on a data center site. So these include food and parking spaces and, you know, also accommodation. So I think this is a very positive development, but it also shows that Iron is not just here to flip the side into B3 hundreds. I think it means that they are going to continue long, a long cycle of liquid cool data center construction in children's. I think they're going to yeah, it's going to go in that direction. And I think that's indicative of both customer demand and Ferro Rubin demand. So Butcher, you want to comment because you got your hand up.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I think that was from earlier. If it's all right, Franz, we'll go to SI and then Michael was next. SI, good evening.

SI: Hey, good evening and thanks Franz and Richard for all this information. So I have a technical question. I'm not sure whether you have the answer yet or not or this weekend I'm researching in a topic of some of the Vera Rubin configurations and the 2027 Kyber chips Michael and in 600 Watt to one MW track densities and it appears that the industry is moving towards 800 Volt DC. Did you guys see any any clues into the way they are ordering their substations or any other? I'm not sure if the analysts have covered this before. Any clue into if Iron is adapting the sort of architecture or they're still sticking with the traditional 400 Volt 400 Volt UPS and whatnot?

Speaker 4: I I know that Horizon has 405 volts DC Transformers, so I guess that is the 400 that you're talking about, right? I think. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Frans Bakker: I think this is the.

Speaker 4: Microsoft required voltage standard for for their GB 300 OK clusters. Other than that, you know, I, I have no clue honestly. I I have a super high definition Sweetwater satellite image in front of me and I can completely follow the wires all through the the the bulk substation into you know the utility substation and on the other side towards the primary substation, but.

Frans Bakker: I have.

Speaker 4: I have no idea about, you know what, where is the, the, the decision to go with eight hundredfold. I mean, obviously a primary substation pumps out 34.5 kilofolds. I guess this is still AC. So I think if you're you're going to decide that you're going with eight hundredfold DC, it's going to have to come somewhere after that. So you're going to have like.

SI: A yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 4: Like APU or something like some kind of a step down from there and then, you know, this is not something we can see from satellite imagery or you know, can we can only anticipate it. But you know, you have to remember. Can you use 800 full DC with the favorite Ruben 200? I don't think so, right? I think this is for Kyber.

SI: Right.

Speaker 4: Yeah. So I think Kyber is for Ruben Ultra and I, you know, I don't think Ruben Ultra is on the menu right now. So, you know, I guess that that sort of answers your question if, if they expect to deliver Sweetwater compute in 2027, I think we have to, you know, focus on VR200 rather than VR300. I think that makes sense.

SI: Yeah, I got another question.

Speaker 4: Go.

SI: Ahead.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Sounds like you had your next question. What were you going to say? Say.

SI: Yeah. So do you, do you think, you know, considering that we started late in revenue recognition last quarter and 17 mil is what we have recognized, do you think they're going to catch up and meet the 2026 guideline 26 guidance or do you think that we're going to, we're going to fall short by the end of this year? And also recently, you know, I've gone, I haven't gone through the numbers, but there's a foot going around saying that Iron has guided down there a revenue. I haven't seen anything like that. So just wanted to clarify with you if you guys have seen anything like that.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: The only thing I can think of on the ARR guidance deliveries and I think France can speak to the delivery of the DCS and connecting better than I can. But from a number standpoint, I had made the comment earlier that if you take the there's $1.3 billion of revenue. If you exclude, let's see, Prince George was 500 million and then Microsoft was 1.9, that's 2.4 billion and then you get to 3.7. That's where I'm getting the 1.3 from the difference and I think where some people have been critical of iron including myself and guidance is that 1.3 billion only shows an improvement of 25% in pricing, even though we're seeing way higher increases in spot prices in the GPU market. I can understand that the contracted rates going to be lower, but my concern with how they're guiding is that it implies that they're not recovering the increased CapEx numbers for, as an example, B3 hundreds. Last year the company was paying anywhere from 40 to I think it was closer to 50,000 per GPU, while now they're paying 70,000 per GPU. So 20 over the 50 is an increase of 40%. So that might be what it relates to Sai.

SI: OK. Isn't it, is that the difference? I know that you know the prices have increased on on the CapEx side, but does that imply also that they're gonna they have started a bit late, maybe it's a catch up of the earlier batch. There's a reason why they they won't do want to cross a fixed number. I mean that number a lot.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I'm not sure I understand. Can you repeat that one more time?

SI: So I was thinking that the reason they did not guide it, they did not guide as per the increased rates reflecting the CapEx and whatnot is because they wanted to do a catch up of revenue that because they have started late with this fresh batch of GPUs or did I get that wrong?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I, I don't think it, I think it's more just Franz can speak to the history better. But my understanding is when they initially got, they invested in hoppers initially and the price of hoppers crashed where that's why we saw underwhelming Ironcloud numbers for a number of years before they made their push into the newer B2 hundreds and B3 hundreds last year and now got particles in here. And we've seen I think starting last October or November, it's gone straight up into the right for the past 6-7 months, which is a more optimistic pricing environment. But I also think given that, I think it gets back to the 17 million last quarter when they were initially guiding for 200 to 250, so let's say 225 for year end. They weren't necessarily saying they were going to have 225 for the prior quarter, but that they were going to have everything installed. But then we got more information and realized that those deliveries weren't on time. And I think that's part of the reason why they ended up partnering with Lenovo, an additional OEM besides Dell, so that they could make sure that that delay was no longer a concern. So I think as part of their guidance to manage that going forward in case there were GPU delays, I think they purposely kept it low so that as they're signing contracts with higher rates, even if they don't necessarily install the GPU's on time, the higher rates will cushion that along with, you know, when you combine that with lower guidance. So that's just kind of my take on it. But Franz, if you have anything to add, otherwise, we can go to Michael.

Speaker 4: No, I have nothing to add on guidance. I just like generally I said that I think they are applying past metrics and known customer contracts with the future guidance which is purposely you know low balling the actuals. I think there is no way that you know they can increase the CapEx and decrease the revenue guidance. I think there is some sort of, you know, everything basically that iron does is fake and it's always, you know, they give you data points, but you have to apply common sense to interpret it. Like the same way that they have said we are going to deliver 76,000 B three hundreds out of 200 MW IT load with a PUE of 1.5. It's it's not really like that they have allocated 300 megawatts and out of that they are going to reserve 200 MW of IT load. But 67,000 B three hundreds don't draw 200 megawatts of IT load no matter how many supercluster cables and network core buildings you attach to them. It's just not going to do that. And the reason is that they don't want to tap into the into that free IT load that they will have if they run only B3GB3 hundreds. It's because the purpose of the building says VR200 and a substitution clause will be applied within the 200 megawatts of IT load. And future swaps from whatever GB 300 to VR200, you know, during or after the Microsoft contract will also still be within that same IT load allocation. So I think that iron is sort of like, you know, reserving this capacity indefinitely for Horizon one to four. And so if you are looking just at the numbers as they are, it looks terrible, right? Everyone has said that Microsoft contract looks really bad. And why is the top line so good for Nubius who has the same megawatts? Because it turns out and that's what no one is talking about is that it's actually matters how many GPUs you run in there. So, you know, iron is sort of under under utilizing their data centers if they are going with GB three hundreds because it was designed for higher rack density chips. And you know, so at the same the same thing applies to their guidance as well in terms of ARR. If you just look at what they are saying, it's probably because they it's, you know, using as a methodology that makes no sense if you apply common sense. So, you know, it's just some people call it autistic, some people call it Australian culture, but it's just straight strata retarded. And you know, investors are global and we all have our own way of looking at these guidance numbers and the common consensus is it's makes no, absolutely no sense, right. So they have the the floor in 10 days from now or what is it 12 days from now and they going to have to deliver, they're going to have to talk about yeah, look, we guided for 3.7 billion. But yeah, sorry guys, we made a little bit of a mistake here. We forgot that we look back and it's we have to look forward because it's forward-looking guidance. So we're going to increase our guidance to four point X billion, you know like this, this would make the most sense because Dan was saying on our space that they that they have expect prepayments for capacity coming from the 50,000 GB 50,000 B 300. That means customer contracts are already being negotiated for capacity that's coming online later this year. So if customer contracts are being negotiated because prepayments are being you know prepared, that means rates are also locked in. And if rates are locked in, you're going to have to increase your guidance if the rates are better than what you told us previously. So I think that, you know, there's a time for sandbagging and there's a time for playing, you know, opening your carts to the market. Because if your, if your quarter is underwhelming because you had only four axed your $17 million from last December, I think you, you would really have to talk some shop with the, with the, with the investors, right? I mean, I am, I'm all for surprising to the upside, but you got to come with a surprise and not announce the announcement every time. So yes, I think that's how I look at it and I, I really expect something big from them at or before earnings. I'm still clinging on to my 75% probability of a deal before or at earnings. And the deal would be something in, you know, something with either the announcement of Microsoft 5, Horizon 5 to 6 and or something maybe Entropic, I don't know, possibly a kind of flats or or something like that. There are a couple of things that I think are very likely. But let's say worst case, none of these things materialize. Like there will be no announcement of a customer. They just deliver on their contracted revenue. And they say, yeah, we had $400 million last earnings contracted ARR we have now you know we signed $535 million by March 30, 1st. So we have beaten our own contracted guidance. But then if they are going to say, but actual AI revenue was only $60 million, you know the market's going to be unhappy. So you have to counter that with a proper guidance like now is not the time to send back because if your numbers are underwhelming and all your contracted revenue is pointing to the future like a yes, now we have it signed, but they are coming in the next quarter. I swear you guys it's kind of gum. Then you're going to have to be more open with your guidance for the end of the year and maybe start to talk about 2027 and favorite Ruben and expected revenue coming from that. And you know, just don't be like some of the our peers that don't say anything about commercials and just show train wreck of PNL and then talk about massive end of year guide ARR numbers. I think it is time for iron to choose a path and looking back and sandbagging your way out of this and just keep building and putting your head down and executing. It's, you know, of course I like this. But you know, given the $6 billion ATM and what's at stake here, I think they have to be a bit more conscious of, you know, your, your guidance is, is really your lifeline in terms of, you know, your share price. I think if you're going to fumble the football and give shit guidance with regards to, you know, your, your CapEx and the market's expectation, just because you are not 100% sure. I mean, all these legal disclaimers that are baked in all these filings and announcements, just just use them and just, you know, be a bit more bullish on your own business, right? I think that's what I want to see.

SI: Yeah, I have the same line of thinking France honestly, honestly, I don't care about Sweetwater announcements or Horizon announcements or any other things. At least show us the guidance card properly. That's that's something is in your hand. So if you have sent back that guidance at least, I mean, I mean, at least they can show that card at least they owe us that much as what I'm thinking about. Yeah. But thanks for answering all this patiently. Thank you guys.

Speaker 4: No worries, Michael, you're up next.

Speaker 1: Hey guys, yeah, I'm sitting in a sauna and my phone battery is like dying by the 2nd, so there's a chance that I get knocked off of here, but couple comments, one on like the demand environment and then the second on like management and shareholder sentiment, so.

SI: The first up, I've got like a few $1,000,000 of exposure. So I'm definitely, you know, exposed to iron and, and I've been in it for over a year, you know, started buying when it was about 10 or so, you know, on the demand side, obviously a lot of people have been talking about Anthropic. I get, I see a lot of like SPV secondary deals and stuff just being kind of in the startup tech world. I, I heard that they were going to raise at 800 billion and they've tabled that and they're moving the valuation up to 1.3 trillion. We'll see if that 100% materializes. I heard is opening up this week at 1.3 trillion. You'd imagine they're going to raise at least 100 billion. And obviously the big issue that they have right now is supporting demand and, and the product is really degraded because of the lack of your compute infrastructure available to them. And obviously there's like an arms race going on with open AI in them and open AI is taking some of their their market share right now. So they.

Speaker 1: Clearly are going to.

SI: Need to spend a ton of money I'm not sure exactly where they're going to get that capacity and this year and next year outside of companies like like iron. So I thought that was interesting. And then the second to some like the, you know, I, I saw people calling for like this, you know, Dan the CEO to step down today and stuff like that. The investor base is is super.

Speaker 1: Impractical and impatient. You know, generally not everybody, but generally I mean at the end of the day, there's been a six month kind of consolidation period after the stock ran up what 10X from 4-5 dollars or something even more than that up to the the peak. And in the management team has been pretty clear from the start that, you know, they're going to be patient, they're building these things out, they're going to be prudent about signing deals.

SI: And, and they think that the demand environment is going to only get bigger and, and prices are only get higher. And obviously it seems like that's that's happened. So I mean, if we would have signed a bunch of shitty deals, you know, people would have been, you know, saying, saying bad shit about the management and, and the company. And then if we don't sign the deals, people talk shit. And I think people should just.

Speaker 1: Kind of sit back for a little bit and and kind of decide is this the company that they want to be in and is this the leadership team that they trust and if so, then.

SI: Trust it the same way that people did with, you know, Jeff Bezos and whatever 979899 when he said, you know, we're going to lose money, we're going to take, you know, it's going to take a lot of time to to get where we want to be. We're playing a bigger game. And obviously the management team could probably do a better job of articulating that. But I think that they have done and they just don't, you know, they don't care that much. They're a little brazen. They don't care that much about like the sentiment a little bit, but it obviously matters for like raising money and and and stuff like that. So just a couple points I want to bring up.

Speaker 4: Yeah, but it's, this is exactly, I don't know if you heard how you are articulating it yourself. It's you're, you're basically providing counterpoints to every point you raise. And that's why this is so sensitive. You know, like I I haven't seen myself that's people ask for Dan to step down. But, you know, his tweet was kind of controversial, you know, because on LinkedIn he replied to a post and that that was his comments. And then on Twitter, he didn't include that quoted post that he was replying to. So there was no contact. So the, the tweet read, read really weird. Like I, I honestly thought it was looking kind of bearish as well because, you know, without the context of the of the post that other companies are having delays. You know, instead of pounding himself on the chest, he just provided like a macro overview post. But that doesn't make any sense If you don't have to quote a post, you know, it it without that post, the CEO of a company is talking about something that he's, he's doing himself, right. So that's why people were applying, you know, is he is he setting us up for delays or so, you know, an honest mistake from a great guy. I mean, I, I really like Dan. I think he's a, he's a class actor CEO and you know, I, I put all my money on him as well. So, you know, I, I get it that people should not jump to conclusions, but you know, we are not all of us are on LinkedIn all the time. And I think it was a, a bit sloppy to not include that, you know, post. So I think I understand the sentiments yesterday or today for some of you that's around that tweet because, you know, it was just a bit poorly executed. But on the other hand, I'm not one of the one deal crowd. So I, I do agree with you there that that that is coming over across this very impatient. And I think that's management deserves more credit when it comes to delivering, even though the, the one deal that they did deliver wasn't really impressive if you look at it at face value. Because like I just explained, the, the numbers are, are not what they appear to be. And the the market's just not that smart, you know, especially when you're dealing with algorithms and then with sell side analysts with different agendas. You know, the, the people that are the most in the weeds with this company are, are basically on Twitter. So you know, I it's not for no, I mean, I don't want to brag or something. It's not for no reason that you know, my post about the arrival of the Transformers was quoted by Roth Capital Partners, right? I mean, it's just it's an example of how how you know, deep we go into due diligence here with satellite imagery, drone videos, people doing like drive by photo shoots at the data center sites of iron. And you know, there's a lot of other things that are happening, you know, like networking here and there. So I don't, I just don't think that the the Southside and you know, the big boys in Wall Street have the same access to all these things. I do know that obviously there are, you know, a lot of financial institutions that do get to hear a lot of these things. You know, they are Privy to some Intel that we are unfortunately not don't have access to here. But I think going forward, I think it would really do iron well to just take AR guidance a little bit more serious. And I'm just going to use this as a little slap on the wrist because I think we know about your execution and we very well know about your supply chain and the procurement team. It's, it's, it's great, right? So if we want to extrapolate all your great efforts coming to fruition, at least give us something to you know, do a little bit of a sensitivity guidance or you know, if you remember in Bitcoin mining, Aaron had this table where they said if Bitcoin is 60,000 or 70,000 or 80 or 90 or 100, we will make this much EBITDA. And you know, they even forecasted their overheads and stuff like that. Electricity cost. I know it's not all that black and white or, or, you know, easy to do for GP us, you know, we buy 50,000 and we expect this much revenue, but at least make it fit the real world, right? I mean, the real world is showing increased pricing and for some reason iron has guided down their revenue mix in GPU, our revenue. So I think that was a bit of a weird one to say the least. So I guess we lost Michael due to the sauna because he's, he's no longer with us. Or maybe he left because I was going on too long. But I just think I, I do have patience. I have conviction. I just think they got, you know, up their game a little bit, especially with around earnings. I mean people, all the people I talked to were not too happy with the last earnings, not because we dropped to 28th during the three CS, but just the whole delivery was just poor. They they gotta increase the traffic that they can accommodate to their own website. You know it is absolutely retarded. I'm sorry I can't find another word for this. That you are an AI company with data centers and you can't handle traffic going to your site. I mean if you are talking about yeah we are in control of our own destiny. We don't have customer service of Co located data centers that we need to call. I bet you that they had to call someone to fix their traffic to their site and it wasn't iron hosted. You know, if it was iron hosted, you know, how bad would that would even be? So, you know, I mean, it's just a detail, but these earnings calls need to be something to look forward to. And I think a lot of people that are on this call and that are in my subscribing group are dreading earnings now because of, you know, crashing, crashing podcast or, or, or crashing web costs and free falling music. And, you know, I think paired this with the sandbagging, it's just, you know, it's time for a little bit of a change. But I'm hopeful that this is going to happen because I told this in I think it was in the last space or it was a space I joined with small cap Sniper Iron has hired a lot of PR people and they are going to announce something around marketing as well. I think they're going to really up their game. And I think that's that is a good thing. And I think, you know, ultimately that will also lead to better understanding of their business. I think the most heard comments I hear from institutional investors is that they don't get the business, you know, because it's too complex, it's too multifaceted. I think it will do the stock really well if Irene just talks shop more, you know, like be a little bit more, you know, straightforward with your expectations and rather than sandbagging, I know real world execution is a is a, you know, a constraint and it's probably also legally a limit on what you can say that you will be able to do. But you know, I think if Irene is so confident of their physical delivery and their head start in long lead time items procurement and grid connected power and their whole operational team, then you know, at least pair that with a little bit more concrete guidance. And you know like how we bought 50,000 GP us and we expect them to be delivered in a six month window. You know, like I think that's also too fake. It doesn't really speak into having a very solid supply chain at all. I mean, honestly, if you don't know when your GPUs will arrive in July or in December, then how are you really on top of your procurement? You know, I mean, is that fair or am I being completely irrational here? What do you think, Butcher?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I think it's rational in that see, I wish Michael was still up here because those unfamiliar with his background, he's got a $200 million startup and I would imagine that he didn't sell fund that. I again, I have a lot of respect for Michael and what he accomplished. But my point is, if you're seeking outside capital, whether it's the debt market or equity investors, you have to be able to tell your story. And I just always find myself wanting more to be honest. And anecdotes of just even that tweet last night is just a microcosm of I think that Dan means well and directionally he's correct and had the him and will are very prescient and bright guys. But I think sometimes it comes down to just telling your story better and showing for this site. We're waiting for Reuben. You know, like Sweetwater is not signed. I don't necessarily need to hear a deal, but I want to hear, OK, the we have liquid cooled infrastructure in place. We plan on using their Reubens there. There's plenty of demand. We have a partner in mind that we're starting to work with, but we haven't finalized deal at this time. It just like seems like there's some really low hanging fruit for communication that most of us, you know, I could understand someone here saying we're overreacting, but Franz has been here since it was, you know, 2-3 dollars. I've been here when I initially got in at $8 and bought as low as $5.00. So I think we've taken our fair share of licks in the marketplace to have an opinion on just that. They can do things a little better. And we are, you know, $15 billion company or depending on the share count, maybe it's closer to 18 or 20 billion now. We'll figure that out soon, but that comes with expectations and that doesn't make me any less bullish about the company. But I just think we have to hold as shareholders, we hold our leaders accountable. And I always tell people in my business, I wouldn't ask you something if I didn't think you were capable of it. So if Dan listens back to this or Mike listens back to it, like we're providing constructive feedback of what we'd like to see. And no, we don't run multi billion dollar businesses. And I know there's challenges that we're unfamiliar with, but it does appear on the surface that there are items that are pretty easy that would help them going forward 'cause if you're going to build Sweetwater, and that's one GW, that's roughly a forty $50 billion project. You have a $6 billion ATM. You know, I don't think they want to sell shares in the 30s, which I think if this call were to go poorly, there's the potential. I don't, I want to make it clear, I don't think this is what's going to happen. But if they didn't execute this upcoming call, well, there's the potential to revisit the 40s and kind of just linger and have the same questions about their execution, despite the anecdotes. So I just, I really hope they savor this opportunity because ultimately they've shown the ability to get good GPU financing. That's encouraging. But they have to build all this infrastructure. And since they're doing Greenfield sites, eventually once Horizon One through 4 is completed, they could refinance those and recycle that capital. But it's not there yet. So they have to front load all of this capital investment on the front end and the only way to do so right now is via convertible notes in the ATM. And to not dilute us any further, it's more optimal for the share price to be higher and for the share price to be higher, they have to tell a better story. So it might sound like bitching because it is, but it's it's rational bitching. So that's my addition to the rant, Franz. Thanks.

Speaker 4: I see there are a couple of people that want to come up and speak. I'm going to allow them to come up. You know, I'm not only critical of what they've done, but, you know, there's just a couple of things that I agree with you. They can do better. I just, I'm a, I'm a little bit tired of seeing them do things that they haven't told us about. And, you know, this is, this is going across all the operations and sites. You know, we've seen them build a data center in Prince George that they haven't told us about. And then they tell us about it in the earnings and six months later it's immaterial. And we've seen them sponsor the Sydney Swans and run ads on trams in South Australia that make absolutely zero sense. And you know, they are they going to tell us about it this earnings. I mean, sometimes it feels a bit of a curse to be ahead of the curve. You know, sometimes we know about things well before they are announced, and that can sometimes be detrimental to being patient. So that's why it's good to have these weekly meetups here online so we can tell each other that it's all going to be all right. But let's hear it from little Mafia. What's up, Mr. Franz? How are you, Butcher? How's the canyons? How's everything, man?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I need the share price higher so that I can pay to come back here. Mafia. But everything's great. Thank you for asking.

Speaker 4: I I've been in this roller coaster for almost a year. We always have the uncertain with iron, but market did pretty amazing in the last two weeks. I'm amazed with the amount of volume. And if you see the chart of the last six months every every time we have this accumulation of volume, it's because you know, market knows. Like I said to you friends in the chat many times, I'm a little worried about the delivery of Microsoft. Not in a bad way, just I'm a little, I know we're going to deliver in time, but I, I wish we we could have a little more of what's going to happen or how it's going to happen if we're going to have a testimonial video, because it's going to be, I mean, we are, we are all expecting Irene to deliver Microsoft. It's one of my favorite parts of this earning call. Yeah. Well, I spoke to that earlier in the space. I think they are going to to you know talk about that, how they delivered the the first building and how the rest is just going to be copy paste. So I think they're and that's actually true. I think that's going to be one part of the delivery to Microsoft that they will speak on and secondly, I think they will announce something with regards to the substitution clause because that's also within the Microsoft contract. So those two things could be bundled together. It would it would be very good if they could get a quote from someone high-ranking at Microsoft to say something about, you know, the project. Obviously we know that these guys visit the site regularly as I it's also something I saw in the comments. Or why are they demolishing mining buildings to, to produce liquid cooled capacity in Childress as opposed to just build new data centers in Sweetwater. I think that is entirely customer driven. So I think customers in this regards, Microsoft would rather have their data centers clustered together for obvious cluster reasons or for, you know, the fact that they prefer the future of Children's over having their compute in Sweetwater. I mean, there is something to say about Children's being a better location than Sweetwater on paper. If you look at the fiber connectivity, for example, Children's is right on the backbone between Dallas and Denver, I believe. Yes, and there are some projects that Zio is going to upgrade to fiber on that backbone in 20-30, which means that it's going to become like a super, I don't know, I don't know the word for it, but it's it's the the highest bandwidth or the lowest millisecond, whatever. And I think that is Childress is right on that backbone line. So I think that for future, you know, projects, future computes, a player like Microsoft looks into these things because you know in 3 1/2 years you're already there. It's within the contract. It's probably beneficial for their, you know, latency. So I would say that that is. And another thing is there is no airport in the middle of nowhere, but there is an airport in Childers. So a couple of things why reasons why I think they would rather expand the capacity over there if I was Microsoft, but that doesn't mean Sweetwater is a bad side. I have a lot to say about Sweetwater, but I just got this satellite image early this morning so I haven't really processed it yet. But as I can see it now, a lot of cables have been connected but the bulk substation from iron is only partially finished. But I think that that doesn't mean they can't energize it because I think they're bulk substation in children's, for example, was only 50%, you know, occupied originally, but it was running for a long time as well. So I will have to make a complete analysis of this. But there is no construction yet of data centers. But the site looks prime to start construction. So yeah, that's my two cents based on what you said. I don't know if you have any other questions or comments. No, I just want to thank you both of you guys. You do good Alpha, you support us. I think there's a lot of people here that understand that Iron is long term, but in the meantime it could be a very short term because we have too much catalysis in the in the door and I wish Iron team to deliver and. That's, that's the most important thing, you know, because you see all the new views and the core weave and all these guys talking about price action and they know nothing. And I, I really appreciate all, all the alpha, all all the insights you give in the chat and I, I don't know, I, I just want to say thank you. No worries, man. Thanks for your support as well. Happy to have you in our only friends group. Super Saiyan. Are you bullish?

SI: Yeah, I've been listening to you guys again. Thanks for hosting it tonight as well. I mean for me, I mean, nothing has changed for me. I'm I'm definitely still bullish. I mean, I just look at the hardcore facts and the first day almost two years ago when I invested, invested for the fact that I knew that there would be a constraint around this year with AI compute and and iron will be in the middle of everything. And it completely played out. I mean, in North America, we know they're the only one who has 1.4 gigabyte power ready almost for the Sweetwater one. So I'm very bullish. But then again, I, I, I have to also I look, I, I analyze the points that butcher and you made. And it also makes sense that a lot of the delivery and communication could be better, but I just don't think it would it would have a huge impact, right? Like, I mean, I've seen Cypher, Wolf, Hot, they all made deals and they were, they were good deals, right? But it's not something that is like extraordinary, right? For me, what was extraordinary is when the first time Nabius made a deal with Microsoft and I and I, I was in that trade. It went from 45, I believe in the news came out within two days to $90.00, I believe. So for me, that was a good shocker, right? Because I've never seen a deal primed like that. And that being said, I think Irene is still on tracks to to cover what it needs to cover. And looking at Dan's recent tweet, I mean, that seemed bullish to me. I've seen a lot of comments saying that, oh, like he could be hinting there could be delay, but I just don't see how it just seemed like he shared a link where it says that there's delays with data centers, right? If I'm ACEO and I'm going to post something like that, that's me basically saying, well, there's delays, But guess what, you know, just hint in I don't have one that that's how I took that. But if people took it the other way, I have no problem with that. So that being said, I'm, I'm pretty much bullish and I do think my gut feeling is saying again, it's, it's not, it's just a fun guess. I, I think by next week we should hear something from them either about the Sweetwater one being energized or there, there should be some sort of communication, right, 'cause Irene knows they said it in the past that around April it should be done. And we also remember them doing monthly reports. So they are very big on delivery and that's something they are boastful about in a good way. So yeah, that being said, I'm I would say I'm still bullish.

Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm bullish too. I've said that I'm bullish May. That means that doesn't mean I'm not bullish for the last four days of April, but I just think there's a, you know, the people were expecting some kind of announcement on Monday. I think that's not not necessarily going to happen. I think they're the Monday is a public holiday in Australia and I think, you know, they will take these things into consideration even though when the market opens on Monday in the US, it's already, I don't know, very late, I guess. No, it will already be be on Tuesday if we are 4 hours difference. Yeah, it's, it's going to be twelve, 12:30 AM. Oh, hey, look, it is Shawn Swanson who wants to come up and talk. It's our favorite bear. Maybe he has something positive or bullish to say this time. I think we are now running into two hours. Oh no, I started an hour later. So we've only been an hour. Hey Sean, are you bullish or bearish? I'm.

Speaker 1: Probably like the most negative bull out there. I know that we spoke last week and just goes back to like kind of it's kind of ironic that we're talking about communication. Just found one last time. I was just kind of talking about like their management team seeming to be not quite hitting like the opportunities like you said. So I guess my question is kind of going back because it's, you know, one of the things like as I consume other investor books, it's always having the ability to go back to your thesis and kind of stress test it. Not trying to protect it, but always trying to try to like see, like, you know, where am I, where am I being wrong, being bullish and you know, am I wrong and things like that. So I guess my question is 2/1 is let's just play this out as kind of game theory. Like if for some reason, you know, they don't hit their Marks and you're decide to make a rotation, have you already had like considerations of like business sectors that you would go in? Like maybe you would not say, oh, I would go into company XY or Z, but maybe I would go into like photonics or like a different type of like memory or, or something else like foundry. And then this second question is, I've just noticed like one of the biggest kind of bulls on the market was like Hanter. And I've noticed that, and this might be like super old news, but I've seen that their price target has been slashed 3 Times Now from like 1:30 to 82. And I just wanted to kind of get your guys's opinion on that since you guys have been in it. And obviously you guys have been in it so early that, you know, I guess from your lens it's like how much is enough and you know, if they start to not come through.

Speaker 4: OK, so I'll take the second one first 'cause that's easy. I, I strongly believe Southside analysts have multiple agendas and I happen to know that some people high up in Cantor had a bad experience with the IRA management team last year with regards to, you know, I think Cantor was willing to finance something for the Oklahoma side, which didn't happen. And then they got left on Reed or something. It was like a little bit of awkward thing. I think that someone high up at Cantor just said, OK, Brett, slash it, just fuck them over. And that's what they do. I mean, respectfully, sell side analysts are fucking bitches. They will just do whatever their boss tells them to do. And if their boss has a grudge against someone, then you know, they will slash. And I was a quite big fan of Brad because he was, you know, he's made the most sense because I think honestly, I think he's not personally believing in this price targets. I think he's just doing what's been told to him. So that's I think generally I think you should just take sell side analyst with a grain of salt. I know I am probably ruining my chances of ever working together with them but you know I honestly don't give shit because I am independent so I will just be my own sell side analyst and I don't need anyone else to tell me when to sell iron. So that goes back to your first topic. What am I going to sell Iron for if they they mess up? Well, you know, this is again the whole story from last time. You know, do I want to entertain the thought that Iron will miss their, you know, execution for Microsoft and others and fumble the football and completely fail as an investment? You know, I don't know if I'm ready to do that. I do want to take bear cases serious. I want to not don't want to underestimate execution risk and things like that. But it goes a little bit far to talk about rotation when they are in the middle of delivery or not even in the middle. They're in the 3rd or 4th inning. I do can I can't talk to you about diversification. Sure. I mean I have I have some exposure to photonics. I have $17.00 January 27th synthetic longs on POET which I entered when they were seven and $8 around 7-8 dollars and POET is now 15 or $16.00 almost. So you, you can, you know, I am very happy because I got paid like 9 1/2 dollars in credit for the synthetics and I could buy them probably back on the on the market on Monday for like 3 or $4.00 or no I guess maybe even less. Which means I have very nice return on them in just a matter of months 'cause bow it ran up from like 5 or $6 all the way to you know, $16.00 almost now. So, you know, I think photonics is a very interesting market and they are probably not the only or the best choice in in stocks. But I don't want to talk too much about stocks. There are so many choices. I think in the, you know, I think we are entering a very bullish year for stocks. I think the May has just been, you know, revised to be even more bullish than it was. I saw some projection from a quads where May is now in the third quad or something. I don't exactly know how this how this is being measured, but it sounds bullish to me. I think Trump will probably pump the markets going into midterms. If there is anything left to save, we will we will get a better fat share. I think for markets there are a lot of reasons to be bullish and I think you can probably not be wrong with the picking a different stock outside of obviously picking losers. So let's entertain the fact if there would be a forced rotation, if I would see that OK, they have failed on Microsoft Delivery and Iron is a terrible company, then I would probably full port short on an EBS. Because if Iron can't deliver it, then sure as hell a bunch of incompetent Russian software guys cannot deliver AI infrastructure at scale. So you know, that would be the easiest short of a lifetime in that situation. So if there would be a rotation, it would probably be that one. You know, I never seen myself as a full porch short guy. But you know, if we are entertaining the what if, then that would be my first thought honestly. So I hope that just answers your question.

Speaker 1: It does. Do you use a cover, a ladder cover call strategy on all of your on any of your positions to like scrape premiums at all?

Speaker 4: No, I don't really use that's tactic, but I what I do some I, I do have a bull spread, a bull call spreads. So you know, long for example, I have long 34 short 115 or 110 for January on iron, which I initiated when iron was $34. So I kind of bought the call at the money and I sold the call, you know at a very high strike price. So these are these are obviously already very green, but that means that the the short call will you know, it's super red and we'll probably you know, there is a very reasonable situation that IRN actually exceeds $110 by January. If they do what I think they will do, if the market will front run their 2027 results, because they have a very good execution in twenty 26th and you know, by my projections, we could exceed $100 as soon as August, you know, so you know, in that in that situation, those spreads will just be what they are. I will just reap the spread and that's it. But that's a cap upside. But no, I'm not going to cover my calls. Sorry, I'm not going to cover my my core shares with laddered covered calls going into the best year of iron ever. You know, I mean, they are going to announce so many catalysts and you know, in the coming months and maybe in the coming 18 months. You know, that would be stupid to sell covered calls in this period of time. Because I've seen people in my subscriber group selling calls for $50.52 dollars, $51 last week that were like losing half of their hair because it was just how can Iran all of a sudden breakthrough a call wall and then finish the week above $50 when we were all so sure that they needed a deal for that, you know? So I think selling covered calls, obviously I'm not giving investment advice or financial advice, but I would be very wary with selling covered calls in the coming. Because as volatile as iron is going down, we can have the same move going up. And I say that from experience with this stock. So, you know, just to put it out there and everyone is free to do what they want. If you sell covered calls, just be ready to pay the price if we do RIP.

Speaker 1: Are you adding more besides the call spreads that you've done, like to your long position?

Speaker 4: No, not, not really. I'm, I'm, I'm basically fully allocated. I did the last thing I thought was did was a single $75 synthetic long when we were 7047 1/2 dollars. So I, I usually what I like to do is if I have a free margin, I will go long synthetic at the money because those will you can usually buy them for a 0 or or a credit. So that means you, you pay nothing or you get paid to enter the synthetic long. If you have enough conviction that it will go up, you will RIP double hard because you know your entry price is either negative or zero. And then everything that happens above your strike price is a massive upside. So the the returns are like exponentially phenomenal. It's great. But you know, obviously the flip side is if the stock goes down, you're, you're probably forced to buy them at the money, which is sent 47 1/2 dollars. If that's OK with you, then whatever. So that's what I do. I sometimes go synthetic long at the money, but it's, I have a, my, my broker is Interactive Brokers and I have a margin account and they, they punish concentration a lot. So for me, it's not just like, oh, I have some spare cash. I'm going to buy a couple of extra shares. It's I, I am currently allocated to the to the tits. So I'm going to let it roll and I'm going to make my decisions going forward, you know, as the story unfolds this year. So yeah.

Speaker 1: I appreciate all your feedback and creating this this format. I'm not, I don't come here to like be negative. It's just like I'm always like trying to like make sure I'm not incorrect, you know, and I, I really respect everyone's research and time that they put into this. So thank you guys.

Speaker 4: Yeah, you're welcome. And I gladly welcome critical views and negative views. You know, just to make sure that people realize this is not an echo chamber. I won't censor negative views or people with opposing views. It's just, it's, it's good to have a, a bit of an alternative look on things. But I am confident that they will execute on what they have entered into. I just hope that they are going to become a little bit more you know realistic with their forward-looking guidance in terms of ARR and you know I think we will see with the next earnings how they will do that. I just realized we are way over 2 hours. So I am going to close the space here. Now it's time for, you know, for some rest and the market the pre market will open in. A little less than four hours, so it's looking good. I hope everyone had a great space and I will for my subscribers, I will publish a post with the Sweetwater super high definition satellite imagery later today. So something to look forward to. Thanks everyone for joining Butcher. Thanks so much for taking the time to join us from your holiday and it's I wish you a nice last couple of days there and safe trip home and talk to you next week. And thanks for the speakers and thanks everyone for joining. Have a great Sunday night or a Monday and see you next week. Bye.

Speaker 1: The.

SI: The.

Frans Bakker: Hey guys, good evening. Welcome to our Sunday night iron space that we try to organize every week. This week's a little bit later because I had some things that I had to take care of first and I wasn't counting on Bitcoin Butcher to join me, but here we are. He's he's with us already. Welcome Butcher, How you doing?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Thanks for having me, Franz. Good to see everyone. And just in a hotel room in Cayman.

Frans Bakker: Yeah, I figured you're probably not outside in the pool right now, but you did a lot of hard work for our share price sitting in the pool all week. So thanks for that. And well, actually judging the overnight prices, kind of looks like you're in the pool right now anyway. But yeah, so for those of you who don't get it, Bitcoin Butcher is on a holiday with his with his wife for a week in Cayman Islands. And every time when it appeared that every time when he was sitting in the swimming pool, the share price of iron went up. At least that was what we concluded may or may not be true, but so basically that's the the gimmick. But anyway, I am not sure if if it's just overnight algos reacting to the Bitcoin surge, but you know, at the end of the day, risk on is all connected. So I usually judge Bitcoin as an indicator of the sentiment rather than a, you know, a real driver of of the share price of the the high beta stocks. But anyway, Friday was a little bit of a sell off, which I think Iran, you know, weathered pretty well relatively. I think we can be actually quite content with the the way the the stock performed on Friday. Some of the other names in the same industry like Core Weave and Ebus did pretty poorly. I, I had a discussion with someone, I forgot his name, but basically it was AII placed my bets that Nubius will never reach $200 or more per share. And he said that it will just need one anthropic deal and and they will be there, but it's doesn't look like they have any capacity left. So, yeah, to piggyback on that topic, I think the main topic this weekend was the delays in data centers, the whole topic around the grid. There was an article from the White House. Let me just put it in the nest. I wanted to talk about this post actually, I I hope that Mike Alfred would talk about this post during his space yesterday, but it was he didn't see my comment or it wasn't worth the his time. But I think this is a very interesting one to talk about today, as well as the the tweet from Dan Roberts and the article that he was reacting to that he feels to include in the Twitter version. But so, yeah, the, the general thesis of, of Iran is, has always been grid connected power is the most valuable kind of power and it's also the most scarce one and most difficult 1 to obtain if you're not taking years ahead to reserve capacity or form studies or anything of such nature. And well, already during the Bitcoin mining area era, we, we kind of figured out that Iran had this mysterious pipeline that they were always talking, talking about already in 2023 and 2024, I saw some of the pre IPOC decks where they had, you know, these unnamed sites all across the globe. Like there was a picture of Australia with one site at least that was pictured there. And over the time it slowly became clear that they have always been sort of sandbagging their pipeline. Initially it was we have over, we have over a GW more than what they disclosed. And that was before they announced Sweetwater. And then they came with Sweetwater, which was 1.4 GW and they still said we still have more than one GW in our pipeline on top of that. And then they came with Sweetwater 2. And then it was still, we have more than one GW. And then recently they changed to we have multiple gigawatts in our pipeline. And then they announced Oklahoma and they still have multiple gigawatts in their pipeline. So we're, yeah, so quick mass brings us to 4.6 GW of grid connected power with a firm interconnection agreements and yeah, energization dates. And then on top of that, they are saying they still have multiple gigawatts of grid connected power. So I will go on record here saying that I have basically gathered enough evidence in my Discord and subscriber channel that this pipeline and everything that they have announced already combined will easily surpass 10 gigawatts. And I think that it is most likely between 10:00 and 12:00 gigawatts that I can, you know, sort of pinpoint right now. And that would be power which they, you know, can draw from up to 2035, I guess. So it's not like it's power that's going to be available next year or something. I'm talking about their pipeline. So just to you know, I think it's some of this power will be 20/30/2029. For example, Oklahoma Aaron hasn't really talked about the the two faced part of the the the project. If you look at the filings that they did or at at least at the county documents that they have discussed for the tax abatement, it is 600 MW is the first phase and then one GW is the second phase. And with the utility they have two separate interconnection agreements. And I think the 600 MW is a bit more firm and clear on the energization date that the one GW form phase two. But it's, I think it will be 600 MW 1st and then a GW later, I think they're going to start building next year or at least like side civil works for the 600 MW and then the one GW will be rolled out I guess towards the end of the decade. So it's probably going to be be a phase project where they keep keep building and keep expanding the capacity. So this is also something which is why I, I'm convinced of their 11:50 GW pipeline is iron isn't interested anymore in small sites. They've never really been interested in sites below 300 megawatts, but more recently they have just straight up said that they only looking at a GW and above, even for Australia for example, which is obviously pretty tough to, to realize. So I, I think at most it will get one GW size in Australia. I'm not like saying that it's going to be multiple GW sites over there, but just to give you an idea, there are probably like over 10 sites that we have, you know, in our in our focus for the long term. And let's just say if half of those are GW and the other half is like between 300 and 500 GW, you easily get to 12 GW. So that's a little bit about how to how I get to these calculations. For example, there is one side that's not too far from Childress where they applied for 600 MW, which is very early stage, like pre study stage or at the study stage. So you know, we're probably talking about 20-30. But just to give you an idea, that is probably going to be 5-6 hundred MW and up and most like mostly a GW and up. So anyway, just to talk about, you know, the the strong suit of iron, they got their power secured for the coming 9 to 10 years. And I think if some of you may have recalled Dan Roberts saying in 2024, I'm already thinking about 2029. I've quoted him a couple of times, but this is what he's been doing for the last five to seven years is securing grid connected power well into the future. So we are all reaping, you know the benefits of that now with the Sweetwater and you know Oklahoma's of of their portfolio. So anyway, so Iron is doing really well on this front, but there are a lot of other companies that are, you know, having some issues with getting grid connected power and a lot of them have diverted to behind the meter. And well, we've heard Dan Roberts on our space talk about behind the meter and I agree with him that grid connect power is way superior. But also the whole problem with the behind the meter power is that it's, you know, is the drawing from a pool of long lead time items that are in high demand, especially the turbines. And even having secured some turbines doesn't mean that you can just go ahead and power them because, you know, there are certain permits that are required. And it is also not easy, just as simple as firing them up and connect the the racks. You know, there's a, a different process going on with these things to maintain your uptime. So I'm not extremely well educated in the behind the meter, you know, power. But I'll just say that I think there's a big part of the whole talk about delays for data centers. It's going to, you know, be around behind the meter. I think well, you know the the projects that we know about that have firm power grid connected power with energization dates, they are going ahead. As we saw for example Stargate phase one is grid connected and they have delivered that. But now they are running into the issue that the substation that they have and the line that's running into the site is only 138 kilovolts. And you know, you can only draw so many power from that and it's certainly not enough to power the whole Stargate sites. So I think they diverted to gas turbines as well. And I was informed that they sort of received the wrong ones or I'm not entirely sure how it went. But just to give you an example that if you don't perform your right due diligence and your studies in advance and your research and you go ahead and you start a 1.2 GW project on a 138 kilofolt substation, you're going to run into limits and constraints. And I think This is why it's interesting to see that iron has done a 750 MW side at Childress on a 345 kilofolt line and substation. You see that there's less capacity but higher voltage line. So, you know, the the vision of the Iron Guys versus the Crusoe and Lancium guys is very.

Speaker 4: Different, you know.

Frans Bakker: Iron is always targeting 345 kilovolt lines. They're not going with this smaller substation, these lower voltage lines, because ultimately that just means that your capacity is, you know, you're you're more capacity limited going into the future. So I guess I could run a whole monologue about why grid connected power is superior and why I think iron is positioned, you know, very well in this regard. But I think it is, there are more things to talk about when it comes to delivery of data centers. It's not just about power, even though power is becoming trendy again, like last year, I think the first half of 2025, the big buzz was around power, power, power. And then in the second-half of last year, it turned to chips again and memory and, you know, other components in the in the chain. And now I, what I'm seeing in the first half of this year so far is that despite the constraints around chips and memory, the number one being mentioned by stakeholders is power again. And yeah, I think that a big part of the delays is most likely actually attributed to the lack of firm power. So, yeah, maybe I'll pause there and give maybe Butcher, maybe you can talk a little bit about that. How did you read Dan's tweet? Did you think he was talking bullish about Iran and just forgot to link the article talking about delays and or do you think that he was trying to temper expectations? Maybe we can talk a little bit about his tweet and because it's in the light of this subject, so like to hear your thought.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Yeah, Full disclosure, I scratched my head initially when I read it, but I was also at a dinner with a wine tasting that was like 4 or 5 drinks deep. So I think it probably overreacted a little like some of us if you did because we're all human. But I took a step back this morning and I viewed it more as a soft flex on his part. We could talk about semantics and was it effective messaging or whatever it is. But I think given the context of industry wide delays and then considering that just a few weeks ago he was echoing that Horizon one through 4 remain on track. So I think it's more him speaking to when we interviewed him how they're putting out hundreds of fires simultaneously and it's a challenging job. But in spite of that, they continue to deliver or deliver at least better than their peers. So I think it was more him saying that we have a lot to look forward to with respect to the pipeline you spoke to. But I think just the existing sites and being on time. And I, I think what I want to see at earnings specifically is I wish they would give more color on I think people still and we're going to see we've estimated 60 to $80 million from Canada. With Prince George on AI revenue, so revenue aside, I think it's just more this theme of time to compute, time to compute. Well, I think it's possibly just them like creating a timeline and just saying day one we start the retrofit, day 60, we're plugging in GPU's, Day 90, they're burnt in and they start producing revenue. But some sort of visual to help South side actually understand why having those air cooled DC's are a competitive advantage not only in Canada, but also it appears in Childress that they're leaning in that direction. So I think for the foreseeable future, certainly we see progress with the Sweetwater site, but it's also understandable if they're holding off for Reuben. I'd personally going into the next few weeks here, I'd like to see with children specifically, I think that's the lowest hanging fruit where we can produce revenue quick enough and also at a fraction of the price via retrofitting as opposed to doing Greenfield site development. And then you talked earlier about the whole pipeline. I, I was interested in your view. I put in the nest. It appears there might be additional power in Canada, whether it was new sites or if it was additions to existing sites. It appears Canada power comes at a premium, which might be valuable for inference from a hyperscaler or an enterprise. And then lastly, the the marketing spend that we've seen, it appears to be millions of dollars being spent in Australia, whether it's sponsoring the Sydney Swans or having marketing dollars spent on the trams that the public transportation. So they're clearly trying to make their presence felt in their home of Sydney. But the question is why? And but I again to full circle, I think the biggest opportunity for them to show incremental progress while the rest of the pipeline kind of, it might take longer and it's not tomorrow, but they have a vision for the next 10 years as you were speaking to. But my immediate focus is on Childress for the reasons I've stated.

Frans Bakker: Yeah. So I've made some theories about extra power in Canada. As you know. You know, there are a couple of sites that we've also been looking at that have not been disclosed. But you know, I don't see that as something that's going to happen anytime soon. I think the additional capacity would have to come from expansion projects, like for example, the 30 to 35 megawatts in Prince George or the 20 megawatts in Mackenzie. I have, yeah. I've kind of given up on that since, you know, they've started to become extremely fake about the data centre they build in Prince George when Dan said it was immaterial, 10 megawatts immaterial. I also kind of revised my look on the on the layout of the data center. If you remember initially they added extra data center in a earnings presentation where it was comprised of eight squares and two of them were colored as to be the 10 MW proof of concept for liquid cooling where they would deploy the GB three hundreds that they acquired. But I think looking back and after my careful consideration and analyzation of the size, I think those were not, you know, 5 MW quarters making it like a, you know, like a 40 MW building. I think it was just a 2.5 megawatts compartment like that would make it like still 10 MW overall. So I, I kind of gave up on the whole extra power coming. I know that that the former VP of OPS for Canada, who is now VP of of OPS globally, Glenn has mentioned in an interview that there would be 30 megawatts coming to P to PG and 22 Mackenzie. I still have a clip somewhere to where he's saying that, but it's just, you know, it's never been mentioned again. No one talks about it. Maybe it's just very difficult right now in in Canada where I think new projects need to apply for some kind of tender or I don't know, like they need to get allocated capacity for a certain amount of time, like for one or two years. And yeah, I mean, I guess there are other interesting things. I don't know, maybe Canada will come at a premium, but I think there we should rather look at Kennel Flats for something, you know, material. I think it is obvious that they left Kennel Flats out of their 2026 guidance. It's 30 MW. It will be mining Bitcoin until September. That was at least what they initially said. But it seems to me that, you know, if you have a retrofit of a couple of weeks, which have been, you know, pounding the table on like, oh, we just roll out the Bitcoin mining ASICS and then, you know, we do a little bit of work here at some generators and then roll in the GPU racks. It's, yeah, nothing has actually been, you know, show that it's, it's, it's that quick. They can retrofit in a couple of weeks, sure. But if you're waiting for generators that take a couple of months and for GPU's that take six months, then what what is the, you know, what is your strength here in retrofit time? So honestly, I, I think that Candle Flats is a part of, you know, a 2027 delivery for compute and that would most likely point at Rubens. So I kinda, that's why I always kept kind of flats as a part of the earnings report. I'm, I'm putting Australia a little bit lower on my priority list or slash wishlist if you will. I know that Australia has seen a lot of advertising and they've had obviously been into conversations with Microsoft Entropic and there's been this new entity that they created in New South Wales. And I think the most recent thing that we saw is they are hiring a substation engineer or substation designer for, for their Sydney office. And you know, I know that it's initially we thought that these would just be like remote workers that would work from the office and provide support around the clock for the time zone difference to, to work with like engineers in Texas or Canada. But we've now actually seen the wording data center sites, Australian data center sites and boots on the ground and what not. So I see we have a speaker who is from Australia. If I, if you're an Adelaide United fan, then maybe you're from John. Do you have any thoughts on Australian projects or iron in general your first time come to speak with us? Let us know your thoughts. Go ahead or not. If you want to speak then just raise your hand going forward. I thought I'd just give you a chance to speak now. But anyway. So yeah. So despite all the advertisements and tram sponsors and whatever we've seen in Australia from Iron the Swans sponsorship as well, I don't think it is like imminent for a commercial deal myself. I think personally there are other projects that are, you know, more urgent, as you said, Butcher Childress is most likely, you know, more imminent obviously because there's already data centers there and power running. And then of course the Sweetwater side and the whole things, you know, the things in Canada are probably more easy to contract as there's already power flowing. But nevertheless, I still think Australia is on my list. I just would expect that if they announce something, it is most likely a site.

Speaker 4: Project with a tenant or a customer or a joint venture partner. So I think it's probably more complex. I think you know, could be this earnings or could be the next. At the very least I think they'll mention something around Australia during the earnings. It's pretty material if you're starting to hire like a twenty 3050 people and spend a couple of million on advertisements in in the country, Maybe it's worth a question from an analyst at least. So let's see if.

Frans Bakker: I mean, I, I posed the question to Dan and myself like what's going on? Why, what's up with all the sponsorships? And then he just started to talk about we have a global focus, but also a focus on Australia. I think that now, I think it's been like a month or a month and a half since we had that space. I think now it's, you know, they probably have something more to talk about now, especially since the creation of that subsidiary and a bunch of other rumors that have come from SA. So let's see. But my personal expectation is #1 will be the announcement of Horizon five and six. That is the absolute number one that I expect to happen between this very moment and May 7th on or before May 7th. So I think they're going to talk about that because it's going to happen. I think they're going to talk about, you know, displacing some minors in Childress, potentially clearing some area, maybe demolishing a couple of mining buildings in the process. I think right now these things are still unconfirmed, but it's very likely to happen. And this is also a bit of a confusing topic within the IRN investors on on Twitter. Why is IRN talking about air cooling, air cooling, air cooling, and then they start to talk about Horizon 5 to 6 being liquid cooled again. So I think this could only be indicative of a, you know, strong customer demand and potentially better deal terms because, you know, for iron to go back into the 10 to 12 million a megawatts in cutbacks for data centers, they probably need to have a much better top line to justify that. So I'll add to that expectation of Horizon five and six that it's I, I, I'm going to go on a record here and say that it will also be with Vera Rubens. So I think, you know, obviously Microsoft would be the most easy customer and I think it makes sense if it's called Horizon 5 and 6. I cannot 100% say that it will be called Horizon 5 and 6. I just, I'm pretty sure about there will be 100 MW of IT load coming liquid colds in Childress. And I just think it will make absolutely zero sense to start construction for data Center for for two data centers well or six buildings I guess in the middle of 2026 when Ferro Rubin's coming in around the time those will be finished. So I think it will be for Ferro Rubin.

Speaker 4: And I think we will also hear something about conclusion of the substitution clause for horizon 3 and 4. Horizon three and four look very different from horizon one and two. I think tomorrow I'll I'll get a new satellite image from Childress which could maybe give us a a few hints.

Frans Bakker: But to give you one example, there are no roof fence on Horizon 3, which is very weird because Iran has always build data centers with roof fence. And the newest three buildings don't have any fence on top there. There is no inlets. There are no, you know, it's like a solid roof. And there are also no side inlets. There are, you know, no filter bags have been spotted. It's a it's a different design again. So first we see Horizon one with a liquid cooling facility or, or liquid cool cooling plant, I guess with the fans hanging down. And then Horizon 2 sees a completely different design where there are like fins on top, even though the data centers and everything is the same as between Horizon 1:00 and 2:00. But they changed the design of the liquid cooling plant. Maybe it's a different supplier or maybe it's a different version or I don't know, iteration. And then Horizon 3, all of a sudden they have changed the data center itself and they have decided that, OK, now we're going to stop using roof, fence and side inlets. I guess it's part of the whole best practices and refinement process that they run. But it's, you know, interesting to see that within a set of four, Horizon one to four, they've already made three changes in the first 3. And you know, obviously the wells, those big rounds towers where they store the water have been built for all four of the data centers. But for example, the liquid cooling plant for Horizon 3 has not been built yet. So the, and the the fourth data center Horizon 4 is also seeing something new is where they are doing all the underground work first and doing the concrete shells, I mean the concrete and the shells later. So I think, you know, we talked a lot about what, why is Horizon one to four and the Microsoft contracts, you know, why does it have a negative, you know, MPV, why is it a single digit IRR and levered? Why is it a bad deal? You know, but at the end of the day, you're going to see that this is a, you know, it's a first project. It's like a test tube baby. And it's, you know, let's not forget that Iron and Microsoft are not just customer and supplier, they're also partners in design. And I think that that's, that's why you see these refinements through the process of the construction. And I think it's going to look really funny. If you see a satellite image in a year from now, you're going to see the top few of the horizon, 1:00 to 4:00, and it's going to look completely different like 1234. It's like, you know, pick your flavor. But you know, this was the same thing with the mining buildings. After all, like Block 1 was 20 MW buildings with these massive roof fans. And then Block 2 going forward had like these smaller roof fans and were 25 MW buildings. So I think, you know, going forward I think we're going to see a more unified design or like a standard design of a liquid cooling shell where they will apply all the best practices. So most likely Horizon 5 and 6 for example will look very much similar to horizon three and four rather than to horizon one and two. And I think.

Speaker 4: We'll see the same thing in Sweetwater where they will obviously not start over again with learning, but they will apply all everything they learned from the Microsoft deal. So I think the Microsoft deal is just a very fancy R&D project At the end of the day. It's not a cash generating project. It's, you know, it is, it's validation. It's a foot in the door.

Frans Bakker: And it's a start of a partnership and it will give iron a very rich, you know, experience and skill set of delivering, you know, 200 kilowatt rack density, liquid cool data centers. And hopefully they will be able to deliver them at pace, a high pace. So that's how I see Childress, I expect. So I expect Horizon 5 and 6 announced with Fiora Rubin's decision around Horizon 3 and 4 substitution clause and potentially the announcement that they delivered the first data center of Horizon One. So the first building of the three to Microsoft. The GPU's are already on site and I expect them to be installed by now. The Horizon One first building has been fenced off, so it's now a security clearance event. So if you want to go inside, you need to show a badge. So it's like now it is really a Microsoft environment. So if you're not on the list and you're not getting in anymore, so that shows that it's in the handover phase. And I guess maybe Microsoft will be, you know, involved in the burning in process. But you know, we still have a 1 1/2 weeks until earnings. I think it's quite obvious they're going to announce, you know, a very triumphant handover of the first building, which is a bit meager. I can understand most of you were, you know, expecting all of this to happen 1/4 ago, but you know, to go back to dance, tweet, the real world can't always keep up with the digital world and the the same thing applies to iron. But you know, on the one hand, we are investors and we want revenue to hit as soon as possible, but on the other hand, what is more important?

Speaker 4: If you look.

Frans Bakker: At Microsoft, the Microsoft contract has a liability. Then all you want is them not to.

Speaker 4: You know, get delays and penalties and just deliver within a certain grace period or you know, so let me just say that I would love to see the revenue hit earlier, but at the end of the day, I just want them to deliver on time. So since we don't know, what are the ultimate deadlines for the for the first three buildings?

Frans Bakker: All we all I can say is if they don't get any sort of delay or penalties, then it's fine for me, you know so and the biggest hurdle will always be the first building and then the second hurdle will be the first three buildings and then the third hurdle will be the first 100 MW cluster. So it will get easier, you know, I think it will get a lot easier.

Speaker 4: After the first building is delivered and then you know, going forward, it's just going to get to go a lot smoother. So yeah, if I look at the the quarter that they're going to talk about on May 7th, it's also most likely the last quarter where the revenue expectations will be, you know, a bit higher than what they're going to deliver. Obviously it's going to be a bit of a, you know, soft quarter in terms of AI revenue and in terms of, you know, overall revenue. I think Bitcoin was performing pretty poorly during the quarter. Not that it should be material, but you know, from a cash flow perspective, it would be nice to have a bit of mining revenue, but it was, we've seen a lot of hash go down and Bitcoin being down South. I think the best metric will be, and I think they're going to milk that is the quarter of a quarter metric. So it's from $17 million to like say 60 or $65 million. It's going to be a 4X. So they're probably going to make the headline for 400% increase in AI revenue or something like that. You're probably think back of this space when you see their earnings report, because I think it's going to be on the first page in big letters outside of obviously any other big announcements like, you know, Vera Rubin or Australia or something. But so, yeah, so I think that the May earnings will be the last sort of underwhelming earnings report in terms of the actual PNL. And so I think you know, it will be the one where they have to talk, where they will have to announce, where they have to guide, where they have to explain their ARR guidance with regards to the new purchase of the B3 hundreds.

Frans Bakker: It could be the earnings where they announce a new GPU purchase. I think it's about time that they start to do this, particularly if they've raised money through the ATMI. Think it will be wise if they will pair that with a announcement of GPUs because not not to say that I want them to pay for the GPUs with the ATM, raise money, but just to lever the you know.

Speaker 4: The equity in terms of adding depth, so I see new GP US as a form of debt because I think that they are you know bankable in terms of you know acquire them and then 30 days later you can pay for them, but you can finance them with a GPU. Debt finance, I think if iron raises equity for the purpose of leveraging.

Frans Bakker: The balance sheet, I think I'm OK with that, even though you know, obviously the, you know, the past months the price has been absolutely horrific. So I would be slightly, I would, I would be disappointed if they have raised in the 30s honestly. But you know, since we know.

Speaker 4: The Dan likes to tap the ATM at $6 as well. Who knows, they may have raised at 3030 one $32. You know, at the end of the day, it's accretive, right. So yeah, I, I see we have a a new speaker.

Frans Bakker: Bitcoin, you butcher, you let him come up. Maybe you want to introduce Chase and have a little chat with him. I'm going to grab something to drink.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Chase, come on up. How are you this evening?

Speaker 1: I'm good, I'm good. How are you?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Doing wild, you got the floor. What would you like to talk about?

Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. I just wanted to add a little insight in regards to the power secure process. I, when I first started my career, well, couple of years ago, I used to work for a major utility company in the South of the United States. And there was just constant discussions about headcount issues in regards to what it means to, to, to train their, their lineman or the people that work that are working on substations, right? The Apprentice program is roughly 3 to 4 years. And there's a really high turnover rate. That's just public information as well. And what, what makes it really grueling is that they have to wear these, these like PPE clothing. So it's like these like thick, thick, you know, long, long sleeves, long pants, material that's supposed to protect them and they're dealing with electricity or on these construction sites. And so there's just a low pass rate when it comes to The Apprentice program. So, you know, we have all you're hearing about all of these plans to, I guess, secure power for these companies, but it's just not as cut and dry now. I think it's important to be mindful that the company that I worked for was very had strong like operational excellence piece to it. But essentially there's a, there's, there's like a headcount issue. And I can imagine it's only increasing because the energy demands also increasing. And then I used to have conversations with just some of the engineers as well. They're, they're stressed out, they're overworked. So it's on both sides. I know a lot of companies are announcing, you know, what they want to do and so forth, but I think the timelines might be optimistic. But that's just my perspective.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: So if I'm understanding it correctly, you formally worked in the utility sector? I'm kind of reading this back just to make sure if anyone missed what you said. You worked in the utility sector and given the labor requirements for lineman, I think you said and it's a high turnover apprenticeship program that leads you to believe that some of these timelines for the utility delivering the requested capacity you find you are I, I would say skeptical. Is that a fair assessment?

Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. I think, you know, they're, they're giving the, they always give the conservative case whenever they're doing projections, but I am skeptical on whether or not they will consistently hit their mark. So it's just something to be mindful of when people are super excited about, you know, future demand coming online and so forth. But it's just not cut and dry. But I think everyone's aware of that, so.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: What would you say just playing both sides of it? I think it's a good point for the industry, but I think I would playing devil's advocate after hearing Franz speak earlier if you weren't on, he's estimated we've announced 4.5 gigawatts of power through let's say 20272028 with Oklahoma. But with the remaining pipeline, it might end up being 11:50 gigawatts. And given the company's ability to build that might cover them through let's say 20-30 or 2032 does that. And I didn't ask are you a shareholder or you just interested in the topic? Or maybe that would help too?

Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Iron yeah, shareholder, but I, I, I can't really speak on or I don't really have much insight on like what how people are going to hit their targets or if it is achievable. You know, I feel like, you know, Iran has displayed that operational excellence piece and they're pretty good at projecting timelines, but I'm not sure when it comes to the other companies and those discussions. So but yeah, that's pretty much it. I just wanted to get.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I think that makes me more sorry to interrupt. I would, I guess my point is that makes me bullish assuming they can deliver on time, which so far we have and I think that's the point of differentiation. I guess that's the whole point of Dan's relaying the delays in the industry is to differentiate Iron amongst its competitors. And you have newer behind the meter participants that haven't built the data center yet or legacy Bitcoin miners. They've signed a deal and they actually signed deals prior to Iron yet Iron's delivering Horizon one before they've completed their first data center. So personally that gives me confidence I, if I'm being, I think what I would want to see from Iron, there were acceleration fees that was $2,000,000 per MW that are part of the reason why Horizon one through 4 cost roughly 15,000,000 per MW. So a little ran a little higher than everyone was expecting, which I think was initially a shock. So I hope Kent and Anthony and Dan are able to convey whether we should expect to see that going forward. Like if they're, if they are locking up deals with some of the parties, we hope that they team up with is them, are we expected to pay that acceleration fee going forward? Or is the client going to start paying a premium because they're realizing no one else can deliver at the pace iron can. So those are, you know, I, I remain bullish, but I try and be self critical of my hypothesis. And that's one thing that I noticed last time that I would like to see as it pertains to DC construction related to Horizon 5:00 and 6:00. What I wasn't able to comment earlier while Franz was discussing it everyone is if Horizon one through 4 if you guys remember was 300 gross megawatts out of 750 at Childress, but it was 200 megawatts of critical IT which is you have the critical, IT is what you can run the GP us on, whereas the rest of its supporting infrastructure for cooling and just background power and kind of support for the DC. So if we assume Horizon five and six are half the size of Horizon one through 4, conservatively that project Horizon one through 4 was $2 billion annually of recurring revenue or 1.9. So on a terrible day, I think we can expect an additional $1 billion of forward ARR. But given that it's Ruben, I kind of I'm not sure if Franz is back yet, but I would be interested in his perspective on this. But we're running GV three hundreds at horizon one through 4. He's talked about how there's a clause in the contract where they could negotiate with Microsoft and Microsoft could upgrade to Rubens, which is part of the reason why Horizon one through 4 had flexible racks where they could shift from. I believe it's 130 kilowatt rack density for GB three hundreds and now up to 200 for Verirubin. Now with five and six. If there's studies that show that Reuben will be three to five times more effective than the GB 300 for inference, why that matters is those are more tokens it can produce in tokens our consummate with revenue. Now the cost of the token will go down over time, but I find it hard to believe that we're only going to get a billion dollars out of Horizon 5 through 6. And I would think it's closer to 1.5 billion to $2 billion, which given that our current guidance is $3.7 billion. If you can add an additional 1 1/2 billion dollars that gets you over 5 billion and you know 2 would get you closer to 5.7 or just shy of 6. So I think that even though it's only two data centers per SE, that just speaks to the power of Reuben and I, I think that's an opportunity for the guys on the call to speak to is how they are maximizing the value per MW. And that given that there are delays in the marketplace, they might not sign something immediately, even if it's for air cooled DC's because they're waiting on GPU delivery. And if there's a shortage of data centers and a shortage of available GPU's, then it's quite likely that the price is going to rise and they're going to agree upon contract terms right before they install it to optimize the amount of revenue that they're generating per MW. So those were just a few thoughts, friends, that I had from earlier that I couldn't get in. But Chase, thanks for coming up. You're welcome to raise your hand if there's anything else you want to speak on. But related to your question, like I think your skepticism of our competitors is not only is it healthy, but it actually makes me more more bullish about the company that we own.

Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah. No, I totally agree. And I think, I think what's interesting as well is that before this whole, before the entire AI discussion, tech companies were having regular capacity issues when it came to data centers. And of course, the whole AI made that even worse. But no, overall, thanks for bringing me up. I've been listening to you guys for a long time now. So it's nice to be on stage and just kind of hear, hear your hear everyone's thoughts.

Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah. Thanks for coming up, Chase. I didn't hear everything you said but.

Frans Bakker: For the most.

Speaker 4: Part I got it. So you're welcome to join us in the future. So yeah, I, I'm not going to go into delays at competitors now because that will turn into one Big Bear talk about Nibius, most likely. So I'm not going to go into that right now. I want to stay positive and focus on iron. So yes, Butcher, I have some thoughts on your thoughts. So let's take it apart and look at a few things that Iron has said and then we can go back and apply that to Childress. So first of all, we know that Iron has not oversubscribed their megawatts for Horizon. That means they have allocated 300 megawatts of gross IT, sorry gross power to 200 MW of IT load, but it doesn't mean that they're going to use 300 MW. And actually it also means doesn't mean they're going to use 200 MW of IT load for Horizon one to four. They are applying this sort of as a buffer and within those megawatts they're going to deliver the Microsoft contract, whatever that may be. So either it's GB three hundreds or it's a mix of GB three hundreds and Fiera Rubens. This, you know, that will depend on the substitution clause where I think they will have to make a decision for in May. There are a bunch of other things that Irons also said that I think initially when they were talking about the last 75 megawatts that was available. If you remember originally Block 6 was placed right around the place where there was a a parking lot now, so, so if you remember they used to have these drawings in the monthly OP reports where you would see block 12345 and then block 6 was placed like right below block 5 where there is now, you know, web station and some other things but. Back in the day, there was only 100 MW left after the 650 MW of Bitcoin mining and they had said that they would build you, you know, they would go to 52 Exa hash and for this last two Exa hash they would build 125 MW building right below the substation for that. That's primary substation 6, which is actually that substation is still there. It's now powering Horizon 123 of it willpower Horizon 123. But my point is there was 75 MW left that they were were discussing what to do with it. And then I think there was an analyst question during one of the earnings calls where they said that would you repurpose these buildings? And then the whole, you know, would you repurpose these mining buildings? And then I think then start to talk about, you know, like children's being an AG or something. Anyway, the bottom line of the whole conversation was that they said that they would rather just build a bunch of new Bitcoin mining buildings. You know, I think that yes, the, the question from the analyst was in the future, if AI would die, would you be able to repurpose those AI buildings to mining again? And then that's when he said we would rather just build a bunch of Bitcoin mining buildings again. I think that was the the thing. So why am I saying this now is because I think that they are going to potentially, you know, take down a couple of mining buildings for liquid cooled AI buildings now. And I think that this speaks volume of the, you know, incentive from the customer to, you know, because, you know, they have been boasting about, oh, we have so much space in children's, we could expand to the east and to the South. And it's true, the footprint of the site is huge and they have a lot of unused ground that they could build on. So, you know, why do they decide to, you know, physically build Horizon 5 and 6 next to 1 to four? That's most likely because they are going to, you know, sell it to the same customer. So I kind of got this thought while I was, you know, reacting to your your thoughts, Butcher. So I think 5:00 and 6:00 will most likely go to Microsoft as well. And you know if substitution clause will go to Ferro Rubin, that means that you will see Ferro Rubin in three and four and then also in five and six. And with regards to your acceleration fee, I don't think that's going to be applied because the acceleration fee was for Microsoft. I know Jim, Jim Liu has some different thoughts on this. He says it was just to pay for getting the long lead time items quicker. And you know, Irene had to pay a surcharge for that. I think it was more related to, you know, the staff, the the night shift workers and, you know, just get all the equipment faster. So not particularly just for for long lead time items. I think it's just an overall increase in workforce getting all the materials and all the cranes and everything to the site build out the workforce. I mean like they, they've hired like a / 100 pipe fitters in the last couple of weeks. They are really ramping up the workforce like crazy. Like hundreds of people are being added to the to the team per month. Like so it's so you know, it's it's going, I think that for a horizon five and six, they won't need to have an acceleration fee again. Why do I say that is because I think it's going to be for fewer Ruben. So I think the buildings can take a little bit longer to to be constructed because the chips will be only ready like let's say a year from now. So I think that with all the experience they got from Horizon one to four, I think they will be able to construct two more in a much faster fashion. So I think it's, you know, if they take their sweet time to build a very good Horizon 5 and 6 to be ready by H12027 with Vera Rubens for Microsoft, you know, there is no need for an acceleration fee because they can just keep doing what they've been doing, keep the same subcontractors, you know, apply best practices and all the refinements from Horizon one to two and just keep going. The only thing they needed to add is maybe demolition charges, maybe instead of an acceleration fee is a demolishing fee or something. So yes, so I think the focus will be on revenue per MW. And this is also our bread and butter from Bitcoin mining, obviously with the, you know, shoes for Terra. Hi Ash. Efficiency was always the number one thing what what attracted me in iron, you know, in regards to their Bitcoin mining economics. So I think that we're going to see this again in terms of the, you know, tokens per MW, revenue per MW. I think it's going to be what sets them apart from their competitors besides of course delivery and execution. So yes, I agree with you, Butcher. I think they're going to squeeze out a lot more tokens, a lot more revenue out of the megawatts to have at Childress than that they are currently guiding for. I think they are sandbagging. I think they are the way that Iran established their guidance is looking backwards and I think that is knowingly sandbagging. I think they are knowingly telling the market they're going to deliver poor results and then they when they actually do deliver, they want to surprise to the upside. I think that's the whole thing that they're doing. I can only say this obviously for so long because if they keep under delivering like with the $17 million of AI revenue in the last quarter, you know, at some point I I'm going to look like a fool. So obviously they have to surprise to the upside at some point. I don't think it's going to be this quarter though, but you know, going forward, I think that that's what's going to happen. So, but sure, go ahead.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Given the emergence of Horizon 5:00 and 6:00, that's 150 megawatts gross. You spoke to Horizon one through 4 being undersubscribed I think was your the terminology that you used. So there's certainly an opportunity to maximize revenue and Horizon one through 6, but that still leaves 300 gross megawatts and they previously allocated 17, 1000 GP US to Childress in their AK filing from March related to the 50K MW purchase. And I agree that that if you take the 1.3 million, excuse me, billion dollars and divide it by the 50,000 GP US comes out roughly to $3.00 per hour, which is roughly 25% increase versus the increase of the GP US and cost about 50%. So I agree with you Franz that they're sandbagging and I'd like to see that come to fruition at some point in the financial statements, whether it be May or August. But my follow up question related to your explanation on five and six is what about the remaining 300 megawatts? Does this change your opinion on what they're going to do with the rest of that site? Do you think it's still possibly Ironcloud being used for imprints using air cooled data centers to retain the existing infrastructure? Or do you think now there's signal that whether it's Microsoft or another potential hyper or larger enterprise may given the demand that Kent's spoken to and liquid cool, they might just say screw it and knock them all over. And then it might in the short term be viewed as a wasted data center. But they could build something that has a 20 to 30 year life as opposed to air cooled data centers that might realistically have a 5 to 10 year life. If you have any thoughts on that, I would be interested in hearing more.

Speaker 4: Yeah. So I think the time to data center time to compute and air cooled was indicative of customer interest and you know you can apply that as a sort of a BATNA I guess. But I think going forward I think that this is a consideration for IRN. You know, will we accept B3 hundreds to arrive in late Q4 or in Q1 of 2027 or do we just build VR200 data centers instead that we can deliver 1/4 later and get the chips then as well? You know, if the, it is like a, a chart where you know, first the, the, the, the Y will, will, the Y axis will go up in terms of deliver B3 hundreds, but then it will go down again in time where the VR2 hundreds is coming around, you know, around the corner. So I think that iron is now in the phase where they have to decide that, yeah, you know, will we take the lower CapEx and the lower revenue per megawatts from the B3 hundreds or do we just let those data centers be idle for two, 3-4 months and then slam dunk VR2 hundreds in there with a much higher revenue per MW? I think that the IT is likely that the B3 hundreds that they've ordered the 50 thousands where they directed 17,000 ish to Childress. I see a world where that those were the last B3 hundreds that they will ever order for Childress. I think that if the customer demand is so strong that they've already decided now that they're going to go ahead and you know, direct another 150 megawatts of gross power towards 100 MW of IT load. You know that now you're talking about 450 MW out of the 750 and then they have 50 MW already for the 17,000 B three hundreds. That leaves only 250 megawatts of gross power that is still left there. You could wonder if it is, you know, this is really worth to retrofit them only for B3 hundreds and go with these chips that are you know, if they'd if they haven't ordered them by now, Do you really think that B3 hundreds that will be ordered this this month or next month will arrive in 2026? I think it's unlikely. I think that this is also the reason why irons now, you know, looking at VR2 hundreds and especially given that Jensen has said that they will prefer delivering to customers that have, you know, capacity to run these GPUs for VR200. I think that, you know, there is a a likely situation that Irene will announce, you know, VR2 hundreds for the remaining capacity of children's. I know that this is this sounds again like I am flip flopping and changing my mind completely, but I'm just following what I'm seeing. I mean.

Frans Bakker: If the B.

Speaker 4: Three hundreds would be the ultimate solution for ironed and they would have, you know, bought more by now. But instead what we hear is they have most likely decided to go with more liquid cooling there. So you know, if following the the facts on the ground, it appears that for now they are looking more at Ferro Rubin. And I think that outside of GB three hundreds for Microsoft and what they've ordered so far for Canada, I think the the main theme going forward is going to be Ferro Rubin. I think the IT makes the most sense. It is the best model to squeeze the most tokens and revenue per MW out of their existing data centers. I mean, out of their existing power infrastructure is a better way to say it because obviously if they knock down mining buildings, they can't you repurpose those. But yeah, so I am watching this closely. Another thing I could probably tell the tell the crowd here is that Iron's now deciding, decided they're going to construct a man camp in Childress, which is another demonstration of Iron's finally thinking of where to sleep these people that they are, you know, letting park.

Frans Bakker: Outside of the parking lots because they are full, you know the.

Speaker 4: There are real world, real world constraints with having more than 2000 people on a on a data center site. So these include food and parking spaces and, you know, also accommodation. So I think this is a very positive development, but it also shows that iron is not just here to flip the side into B3 hundreds. I think it means that they are going to continue long, a long cycle of liquid cool data center construction in children's. I think they're going to yeah, it's going to go in that direction. And I think that's indicative of both customer demand and Ferro Rubin demand. So Butcher, you want to comment because you got your hand up.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I think that was from earlier. If it's all right, Franz, we'll go to SI and then Michael was next. SI, good evening.

SI: Hey, good evening and thanks Franz and Richard for all this information. So I have a technical question. I'm not sure whether you have the answer yet or not or this weekend I'm researching in a topic of some of the Vera Rubin configurations and the 2027 Khyber chips Michael and in 600 Watt to one MW track densities and it appears that the industry is moving towards 800 Volt DC. Did you guys see any any clues into the way they are ordering their substations or any other? I'm not sure if the analysts have covered this before. Any clue into if Iron is adapting the sort of architecture or they're still sticking with the traditional 400 Volt 400 Volt UPS and whatnot?

Speaker 4: I I know that Horizon has 405 volts DC Transformers, so I guess that is the 400 that you're talking about, right? I think, yeah, yeah, yeah. I think this is the Microsoft required voltage standard for for their GB 300 OK clusters. Other than that, you know, I, I have no clue honestly. I I have a super high definition Sweetwater satellite image in front of me and I can completely follow the wires all through the the the bulk substation into you know the utility substation and on the other side towards the primary substation, but.

SI: I have.

Speaker 4: I have no idea about, you know what, where is the, the, the decision to go with eight hundredfold. I mean, obviously a primary substation pumps out 34.5 kilofolds. I guess this is still AC. So I think if you're you're going to decide that you're going with eight hundredfold DC, it's going to have to come somewhere after that. So you're going to have like a.

SI: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 4: Like APU or something like some kind of a step down from there. And then, you know, this is not something we can see from satellite imagery or you know, can we can only anticipate it. But you know, you have to remember. Can you use 800 full DC with the favorite Rubin 200? I don't think so, right? I think this is for Kyber.

SI: Right.

Speaker 4: Yeah. So I think Kyber is for Ruben Ultra and I, you know, I don't think Ruben Ultra is on the menu right now. So you know, I guess that that sort of answers your question if, if they expect to deliver Sweetwater compute in 2027, I think we have to. You know, focus on VR200 rather than VR300. I think that makes sense.

SI: Yeah, I got another question.

Speaker 4: Go.

SI: Ahead.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Sounds like you had your next question. What were you going to say? Say.

SI: Yeah. So do do you think, you know, considering that we started late in revenue recognition last quarter and 17 mil is what we have recognized, do you think they're going to catch up and meet the 2026 guideline 26 guidance or do you think that we're going to, we're going to fall short by the end of this year? And also recently, you know, I've gone, I haven't gone through the numbers, but there's a foot going around saying that Iron has guided down there a revenue. I haven't seen anything like that. So just wanted to clarify with you if you guys have seen anything like that.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: The only thing I can think of on the ARR guidance deliveries and I think France can speak to the delivery of the DCS and connecting better than I can. But from a number standpoint, I had made the comment earlier that if you take the there's $1.3 billion of revenue. If you exclude, let's see, Prince George was 500 million and then Microsoft was 1.9, that's 2.4 billion and then you get to 3.7. That's where I'm getting the 1.3 from the difference and I think where some people have been critical of iron including myself and guidance is that 1.3 billion only shows an improvement of 25% in pricing, even though we're seeing way higher increases in spot prices in the GPU market. I can understand that the contracted rates going to be lower, but my concern with how they're guiding is that it implies that they're not recovering the increased CapEx numbers for, as an example, B3 hundreds. Last year the company was paying anywhere from 40 to I think it was closer to 50,000 per GPU, while now they're paying 70,000 per GPU. So 20 over the 50 is an increase of 40%. So that might be what it relates to Sai.

SI: OK. Isn't it, is that the difference, I know that you know the prices have increased on the CapEx side, but does that imply also that they can they have started a bit late, maybe it's a catch up of the earlier batch. There's a reason why they won't do want to cross a fixed number. I mean that number a lot.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I'm not sure I understand. Can you repeat that one more time?

SI: So I was thinking that the reason they did not guide it, they did not guide as per the increased rates reflecting the CapEx and whatnot is because they wanted to do a catch up of revenue that because they have started late with this fresh batch of GPUs or did I get that wrong?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I, I don't think it, I think it's more just Franz can speak to the history better. But my understanding is when they initially got, they invested in hoppers initially and the price of hoppers crashed where that's why we saw underwhelming Ironcloud numbers for a number of years before they made their push into the newer B2 hundreds and B3 hundreds last year and now got particles in here. And we've seen I think starting last October or November, it's gone straight up into the right for the past 6-7 months, which is a more optimistic pricing environment. But I also think given that, I, I think it gets back to the 17 million last quarter when they were initially guiding for 200 to 250, so let's say 225 for year end. They weren't necessarily saying they were going to have 225 for the prior quarter, but that they were going to have everything installed. But then we got more information and realized that those deliveries weren't on time. And I think that's part of the reason why they ended up partnering with Lenovo, an additional OEM besides Dell, so that they could make sure that that delay was no longer a concern. So I think as part of their guidance to manage that going forward in case there were GPU delays, I think they purposely kept it low so that as they're signing contracts with higher rates, even if they don't necessarily install the GPU's on time, the higher rates will cushion that along with, you know, when you combine that with lower guidance. So that's just kind of my take on it. But Franz, if you have anything to add, otherwise, we can go to Michael.

Speaker 4: No, I have nothing to add on guidance. I just like generally I said that I think they are applying past metrics and known customer contracts with the future guidance which is purposely you know low balling the actuals. I think there is no way that you know they can increase the CapEx and decrease the revenue guidance. I think there is some sort of, you know, everything basically that iron does is fake and it's always, you know, they give you data points, but you have to apply common sense to interpret it. Like the same way that they have said we are going to deliver 76,000 B three hundreds out of 200 MW IT load with a PUE of 1.5. It's it's not really like that they have allocated 300 megawatts and out of that they are going to reserve 200 MW of IT load. But 67,000 B three hundreds don't draw 200 megawatts of IT load no matter how many supercluster cables and network core buildings you attach to them. It's just not going to do that. And the reason is that they don't want to tap into the into that free IT load that they will have if they run only B3GB3 hundreds. It's because the purpose of the building says VR200 and a substitution clause will be applied within the 200 megawatts of IT load. And future swaps from whatever GB 300 to VR200, you know, during or after the Microsoft contract will also still be within that same IT load allocation. So I think that iron is sort of like, you know, reserving this capacity indefinitely for Horizon one to four. And so if you are looking just at the numbers as they are, it looks terrible, right? Everyone has said that Microsoft contract looks really bad.

Frans Bakker: And.

Speaker 4: Why is the top line so good for Nubius who has the same megawatts because it turns out and that's what no one is talking about is that it's actually matters how many GPUs you run in there. So, you know, iron is sort of under under utilizing their data centers if they are going with GB three hundreds because it was designed for higher rec density chips. And you know, so at the same the same thing applies to their guidance as well in terms of ARR. If you just look at what they are saying, it's probably because they it's, you know, using as a methodology that makes no sense if you apply common sense. So, you know, it's just some people call it autistic, some people call it Australian culture, but it's just straight straight up retarded. And you know, investors are global and we all have our own way of looking at these guidance numbers and the common consensus is it's makes no, absolutely no sense, right? So they have the the floor in 10 days from now or what is it 12 days from now and they going to have to deliver, they're going to have to talk about yeah, look, we guided for 3.7 billion. But yeah, sorry guys, we made a little bit of a mistake here. We forgot that we look back and it's we have to look forward because it's forward-looking guidance. So we're going to increase our guidance to four point X billion, you know like this, this would make the most sense because Dan was saying on our space that they that they have expect prepayments for capacity coming from the 50,000 GB 50,000 B 300. That means customer contracts are already being negotiated for capacity that's coming online later this year. So if customer contracts are being negotiated because prepayments are being you know prepared, that means rates are also locked in. And if rates are locked in, you're going to have to increase your guidance if the rates are better than what you told us previously. So I think that, you know, there's a time for sandbagging and there's a time for playing, you know, opening your carts to the market. Because if your, if your quarter is underwhelming because you had only 4X to your $17 million from last December, I think you, you would really have to talk some shop with the, with the, with the investors, right? I mean, I am, I'm all for surprising to the upside, but you got to come with a surprise and not announce the announcement every time. So yes, I think that's how I look at it and I, I really expect something big from them at or before earnings. I'm still clinging on to my 75% probability.

Frans Bakker: Of a deal.

Speaker 4: Before or at earnings and the deal would be something in you know, something with either the announcement of Microsoft 5, Horizon 5 to 6 and or something maybe Entropic, I don't know, possibly a kind of flats or or something like that. There are a couple of things that I think are very likely. But let's say worst case, none of these things materialize like there will be no announcement of a customer. They just deliver on their contracted revenue and they say, yeah, we had $400 million last earnings contracted ARR we have now you know we signed $535 million by March 31st. So we have beaten our own contracted guidance. But then if they are going to say, but actual AI revenue was only $60 million, you know the market's going to be unhappy. So you have to counter that with a proper guidance like now is not the time to send back because if your numbers are underwhelming and all your contracted revenue is pointing to the future, like yes, now we have it signed, but they are coming in the next quarter. I swear you guys it's kind of gum. Then you're going to have to be more open with your guidance for the end of the year and maybe start to talk about 2027 and favorite Rubin and expected revenue coming from that. And you know, just don't be like some of the our peers that don't say anything about commercials and just show train wreck of AP and L and then talk about massive end of year guide ARR numbers. I think it is time for Iran to choose a path and looking back and sandbagging your way out of this and just keep building and putting your head down and executing. It's, you know, of course I like this. But you know, given the $6 billion ATM and what's at stake here, I think they have to be a bit more conscious of, you know, your, your guidance is, is really your lifeline in terms of, you know, your share price. I think if you're going to fumble the football and give shit guidance with regards to, you know, your, your CapEx and the market's expectation, just because you are not 100% sure. I mean, all these legal disclaimers that are baked in all these filings and announcements, just just use them and just, you know, be a bit more bullish on your own business, right? I think that's what I want to see.

SI: Yeah, I have the same line of thinking France honestly, honestly, I don't care about Sweetwater announcements or Horizon announcements or any other things. At least show us the guidance card properly. That's that's something is in your hand. So if you have sent back that guidance at least, I mean, I mean, at least they can show that card at least they owe us that much as what I'm thinking about. Yeah. But thanks for answering all this patiently. Thank you guys.

Speaker 4: No worries, Michael, you're up next.

Speaker 1: Hey guys, yeah, I'm sitting in a sauna and my phone battery is like dying by the 2nd, so there's a chance that I get knocked off of here, but couple comments, one on like the demand environment and then the second on like management and shareholder sentiment, so.

SI: The first up, I've got like a few $1,000,000 of exposure. So I'm definitely, you know, exposed to IRN and have been in it for over a year. You know, started buying when it was about 10 or so. You know, on the demand side. Obviously a lot of people have been talking about Anthropic. I get, I see a lot of like SPV secondary deals and stuff just being kind of in the startup tech world. I, I heard that they were going to raise at 800 billion and they've tabled that and they're moving the valuation up to 1.3 trillion. We'll see if that 100% materializes. I heard is opening up this week at 1.3 trillion. You'd imagine they're going to raise at least 100 billion. And obviously the big issue that they have right now is supporting demand and, and the product is really degraded because of the lack of your compute infrastructure available to them. And obviously there's like an arms race going on with open AI and them and open AI is taking some of their their market share right now. So they clearly are going to need to spend a ton of money. I'm not sure exactly where they're going to get that capacity and this year and next year outside of companies like like iron. So I thought that was interesting. And then the second to some like the, you know, I, I saw people calling for like this, you know, Dan, the CEO to step down today and stuff like that. The investor base is is super.

Speaker 1: Impractical and impatient. You know, generally not everybody, but generally, I mean at the end of the day there's been a six month kind of consolidation period after the stock ran up what 10X from 4 or $5 or something even more than that up to the the peak. And in the management team has been pretty clear from the start that, you know, they're going to be patient, they're building these things out, they're going to be prudent about signing deals.

SI: And, and they think that the demand environment is going to only get bigger and, and prices are only get higher. And obviously it seems like that's that's happened. So I mean, if we would have signed a bunch of shitty deals, you know, people would have been, you know, saying, saying bad shit about the management and the company. And then if we don't sign the deals, people talk shit. And I think people should just.

Speaker 1: Kind of sit back for a little bit and and kind of decide is this the company that they want to be in and is this the leadership team that they trust and if so, then.

SI: Trust it the same way that people did with, you know, Jeff Bezos and whatever 979899 when he said, you know, we're going to lose money, we're going to take, you know, it's going to take a lot of time to to get where we want to be. We're playing a bigger game. And obviously the management team could probably do a better job of articulating that. But I think that they have done and they just don't, you know, they don't care that much. They're a little brazen. They don't care that much about like the sentiment a little bit, but it obviously matters for like raising money and and and stuff like that. So just a couple points I want to bring up.

Speaker 4: Yeah, but it's, this is exactly, I don't know if you heard how you are articulating it yourself. It's you're, you're basically providing counterpoints to every point you raise. And that's why this is so sensitive. You know, like I, I haven't seen myself that people ask for Dan to step down. But, you know, his tweet was kind of controversial, you know, because on LinkedIn he replied to a post and that that was his comments. And then on Twitter, he didn't include that quoted post that he was replying to. So there was no contact. So the, the tweet read, read really weird. Like I, I honestly thought it was looking kind of bearish as well because, you know, without the context of the of the post that other companies are having delays. You know, instead of pounding himself on the chest, he just provided like a macro overview post. But that doesn't make any sense if you don't have to quote a post, you know, it without that post, the CEO of a company is talking about something that he's, he's doing himself, right. So that's why people were applying, you know, is he, is he setting us up for delays or so, you know, an honest mistake from a great guy. I mean, I, I really like Dan. I think he's a, he's a class actor CEO and you know, I, I put all my money on him as well. So, you know, I, I get it that people should not jump to conclusions, but you know, we are not all of us are on LinkedIn all the time. And I think it was a, a bit sloppy to not include that, you know, post. So I think I understand the sentiments. Yesterday or today for some of you that's around that tweet because you know, it was just a bit poorly executed. But on the other hand, I'm not one of the one deal crowd. So I, I do agree with you there that that that is coming over across this very impatient and I think that's management deserves.

Frans Bakker: More.

Speaker 4: Credit when it comes to delivering, even though the, the one deal that they did deliver wasn't really impressive if you look at it at face value, because, like I just explained, the, the numbers are, are not what they appear to be and the, the market's just not that smart. You know, especially when you're dealing with algorithms and then with sell side analysts with different agendas. You know, the, the people that are the most in the weeds with this company are, are basically on Twitter. So, you know, I, it's not for no, I mean, I don't want to brag or something. It's not for no reason that, you know, my post about the arrival of the Transformers was quoted by Roth Capital Partners, right? I mean, it's just it's an example of how how you know, deep we go into due diligence here with satellite imagery, drone videos, people doing like drive by photo shoots at the data center sites of iron. And you know, there's a lot of other things that are happening, you know, like networking here and there. So I don't, I just don't think that the the Southside and you know, the big boys in Wall Street have the same access to all these things. I do know that obviously there are, you know, a lot of financial institutions that do get to hear a lot of these things. You know, they are Privy to some Intel that we are unfortunately not don't have access to here. But I think going forward, I think it would really do iron well to just take AR guidance a little bit more serious. And I'm just going to use this as a little slap on the wrist because I think we know about your execution and we very well know about your supply chain and the procurement team. It's, it's, it's great, right? So if we want to extrapolate all your great efforts coming to fruition, at least give us something to you know, do a little bit of a sensitivity guidance or you know, if you remember in Bitcoin mining, Aaron had this table where they said if Bitcoin is 60,000 or 70,000 or 80 or 90 or 100, we will make this much EBITDA. And you know, they even forecasted their overheads and stuff like that. Electricity cost. I know it's not all that black and white or, or, you know, easy to do for GP us, you know, we buy 50,000 and we expect this much revenue, but at least make it fit the real world, right? I mean, the real world is showing increased pricing and for some reason iron has guided down their revenue mix in GPU hour revenue. So I think that was a bit of a weird one to say the least. So I guess we lost Michael due to the sauna because he's, he's no longer with us. Or maybe he left because I was going on too long. But I just think I, I do have patience. I have conviction. I just think they got, you know, up their game a little bit, especially with around earnings. I mean people, all the people I talked to were not too happy with last earnings, not because we dropped to 28 during the three CS, but just the whole delivery was just poor. They they gotta increase the traffic that they can accommodate to their own website. You know it is absolutely retarded. I'm sorry I can't find another word for this. That you are an AI company with data centers and you can't handle traffic going to your site. I mean if you are talking about yeah we are in control of our own destiny. We don't have customer service of Co located data centers that we need to call. I bet you that they had to call someone to fix their traffic to their site and it wasn't iron hosted. You know, if it was iron hosted, you know, how bad would that would even be? So, you know, I mean, it's just a detail, but these earnings calls need to be something to look forward to. And I think a lot of people that are on this call and that are in my subscribing group are dreading earnings now because of, you know, crashing, crashing podcast or, or, or crushing web costs and free falling music. And, you know, I think paired this with the sandbagging, it's just, you know, it's time for a little bit of a change. But I'm hopeful that this is going to happen because I told this in I think it was in the last space or it was a space I joined with small cap Sniper. Iron has hired a lot of PR people and they are going to announce something around marketing as well. I think they're going to really up their game and I think that's that is a good thing. And I think, you know, ultimately that will also lead to better understanding of their business. I think the most heard comments I hear from institutional investors is that they don't get the business, you know, because it's too complex, it's too multifaceted. I think it will do the stock really well if Iran just talks shop more, you know, like be a little bit more, you know, straightforward with your expectations and rather than sandbagging, I know real world execution is a is a, you know, a constraint and it's probably also legally a limit on what you can say that you will be able to do. But you know, I think if Iran is so confident of their physical delivery and their head start in long lead time items procurement and grid connected power and their whole operational team, then, you know, at least paired it with a little bit more concrete guidance. And you know, like how we bought 50,000 GP US and we expect him to be delivered in a six month window. You know, like I think that's also too fake. It doesn't really speak into having a very solid supply chain at all. I mean, honestly, if you don't know when your GPUs will arrive in July or in December, then how are you really on top of your procurement? You know, I mean, is that fair or am I being completely irrational here? What do you think, Butcher?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I think it's rational in that see, I wish Michael was still up here because those unfamiliar with his background, he's got a $200 million startup and I would imagine that he didn't self fund that. I again, I have a lot of respect for Michael and what he accomplished. But my point is, if you're seeking outside capital, whether it's the debt market or equity investors, you have to be able to tell your story. And I just always find myself wanting more, to be honest. And anecdotes of just even that tweet last night is just a microcosm of I think that Dan Meanswell and directionally he's correct and had the him and will are very prescient and bright guys. But I think sometimes it comes down to just telling your story better and showing for this site. We're waiting for Reuben. You know, like Sweetwater is not signed. I don't necessarily need to hear a deal, but I want to hear, OK, the we have liquid cooled infrastructure in place. We plan on using their Reubens there. There's plenty of demand. We have a partner in mind that we're starting to work with, but we haven't finalized deal at this time. It just like seems like there's some really low hanging fruit for communication that most of us, you know, I could understand someone here saying we're overreacting, but Franz has been here since it was, you know, 2-3 dollars. I've been here when I initially got in at $8 and bought as low as $5.00. So I think we've taken our fair share of licks in the marketplace to have an opinion on just that. They can do things a little better And we are, you know, $15 billion company or depending on the Share Account, maybe it's closer to 18 or 20 billion now. We'll figure that out soon, but that comes with expectations and that doesn't make me any less bullish about the company. But I just think we have to hold as shareholders, we hold our leaders accountable. And I always tell people in my business, I wouldn't ask you something if I didn't think you were capable of it. So if Dan listens back to this or Mike listens back to it, like we're providing constructive feedback of what we'd like to see. And no, we don't run multi billion dollar businesses. And I know there's challenges that we're unfamiliar with, but it does appear on the surface that there are items that are pretty easy that would help them going forward 'cause if you're going to build Sweetwater, and that's one GW, that's roughly a forty $50 billion project. You have a $6 billion ATM. You know, I don't think they want to sell shares in the 30s, which I think if this call were to go poorly, there's the potential. I don't, I want to make it clear, I don't think this is what's going to happen. But if they didn't execute this upcoming call, well, there's the potential to revisit the 40s and kind of just linger and have the same questions about their execution, despite the anecdote. So I just, I really hope they savor this opportunity because ultimately they've shown the ability to get good GPU financing. That's encouraging. But they have to build all this infrastructure. And since they're doing Greenfield sites, eventually once Horizon One through 4 is completed, they could refinance those and recycle that capital. But it's not there yet. So they have to front load all of this capital investment on the front end and the only way to do so right now is via convertible notes in the ATM. And to not dilute us any further, it's more optimal for the share price to be higher. And for the share price to be higher, they have to tell a better story. So it might sound like bitching because it is, but it's it's rational bitching. So that's my addition to the rant funds. Thanks.

Speaker 4: I see there are a couple of people that want to come up and speak. I'm gonna allow them to come up. You know, I'm not only critical of what they've done, but, you know, there's just a couple of things that I agree with you. They can do better. I just, I'm a, I'm a little bit tired of seeing them do things that they haven't told us about. And, you know, this is, this is going across all the operations and sites. You know, we've seen them build a data center in Prince George that they haven't told us about. And then they tell us about it in the earnings and six months later it's immaterial. And we've seen them sponsor the Sydney Swans and run ads on trams in South Australia that make absolutely zero sense. And you know, they are they going to tell us about it this earnings. I mean, sometimes it feels a bit of a curse to be ahead of the curve. You know, sometimes we know about things well before they are announced, and that can sometimes be detrimental to being patient. So that's why it's good to have these weekly meetups here online so we can tell each other that it's all going to be all right. But let's hear it from little Mafia. What's up, Mr. Franz? How are you, Butcher? How's the canyons? How's everything, man?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I need the share price higher so that I can pay to come back here. Mafia. But everything's great. Thank you for asking.

Speaker 4: I I've been in this roller coaster for almost a year. We always have the uncertain with iron, but market did pretty amazing in the last two weeks. I'm amazed with the amount of volume. And if you see the chart of the last six months every every time we have this accumulation of volume, it's because you know, market knows. Like I said to you friends in the chat many times, I'm a little worried about the delivery of Microsoft. Not in a bad way, just I'm a little, I know we're going to deliver in time, but I, I wish we we could have a little more of what's going to happen or how it's going to happen if we're going to have a testimonial video, because it's going to be, I mean, we are, we are all expecting Irene to deliver Microsoft. It's one of my favorite parts of this earning call. Yeah. Well, I spoke to that earlier in the space. I think they are going to to you know talk about that, how they delivered the first building and how the rest is just going to be copy paste. So I think they're and that's actually true. I think that's going to be one part of the delivery to Microsoft that they will speak on and secondly, I think they will announce something with regards to the substitution clause because that's also within the Microsoft contract. So those two things could be bundled together. It would it would be very good if they could get a quote from someone high-ranking at Microsoft to say something about, you know, the project. Obviously we know that these guys visit the site regularly as I it's also something I saw in the comments. Or why are they demolishing mining buildings to, to produce liquid cooled capacity in Childress as opposed to just build new data centers in Sweetwater. I think that is entirely customer driven. So I think customers in this regards, Microsoft would rather have their data centers clustered together for obvious cluster reasons or for, you know, the fact that they prefer the future of Children's over having their compute in Sweetwater. I mean, there is something to say about Children's being a better location than Sweetwater on paper. If you look at the fiber connectivity, for example, Children's is right on the backbone between Dallas and Denver, I believe. Yes, and there are some projects that Zio is going to upgrade to fiber on that backbone in 20-30, which means that it's going to become like a super, I don't know, I don't know the word for it, but it's it's the the highest bandwidth or the lowest millisecond, whatever. And I think that is Childress is right on that backbone line. So I think that for future, you know, projects, future computes, a player like Microsoft looks into these things because you know in 3 1/2 years you're already there. It's within the contract. It's probably beneficial for their, you know, latency. So I would say that that is. And another thing is there is no airport in the middle of nowhere, but there is an airport in Children's. So a couple of things why reasons why I think they would rather expand their capacity over there if I was Microsoft, but that doesn't mean Sweetwater is a bad side. I have a lot to say about Sweetwater, but I just got this satellite image early. This morning, so I haven't really processed it yet, but as I can see it now, a lot of cables have been connected, but the bulk substation from iron is only partially finished. But I think that that doesn't mean they can't energize it because I think they're bulk substation in children's, for example, was only 50%, you know, occupied originally, but it was running for a long time as well. So I will have to make a complete analysis of this. But there is no construction yet of data centers. But the site looks prime to start construction. So yeah, that's my two cents based on what you said. I don't know if you have any other questions or comments. No, I just want to thank you both of you guys. You do good Alpha, you support us. I think there's a lot of people here that understand that Iron is a long term, but in the meantime, it could be a very short term because we have too much catalysis in the, in the door. And I wish Iron team to deliver. And that's, that's the most important thing, you know, because you see all the new views and the core weave and all these guys talking about price action and they know nothing. And I, I really appreciate all, all the alpha, all all the insights you give in the chat and I, I don't know, I, I just want to say thank you. No worries, man. Thanks for your support as well. Happy to have you in our only friends group. Super Saiyan. Are you bullish?

SI: Yeah, I've been listening to you guys again. Thanks for hosting it tonight as well. I mean for me, I mean, nothing has changed for me. I'm I'm definitely still bullish. I mean, I just look at the hardcore facts and the first day almost two years ago when I invested, invested for the fact that I knew that there would be a constraint around this year with AI compute and and iron would be in the middle of everything and it completely played out. I mean, in North America, we know they're the only one who has 1.4 gigabyte power ready almost for the Sweetwater one. So I'm very bullish. But then again, I, I, I have to also I look, I, I analyze the points that butcher and you made. And it also makes sense that a lot of the delivery and communication could be better, but I just don't think it would it would have a huge impact, right? Like, I mean, I've seen Cypher, Wolf, Hot, they all made deals and they were, they were good deals, right? But it's not something that is like extraordinary, right? For me, what was extraordinary is when the first time Nabius made a deal with Microsoft and I and I, I was in that trade. It went from 45, I believe in the news came out within two days to $90.00, I believe. So for me, that was a good shocker, right? Because I've never seen a deal primed like that. And that being said, I think Irene is still on tracks to to cover what it needs to cover. And looking at Dan's recent tweet, I mean, that seemed bullish to me. I've seen a lot of comments saying that, oh, like he could be hinting there could be delay, but I just don't see how it just seemed like he shared a link where it says that there's delays with data centers, right. If I'm ACEO and I'm gonna post something like that, that's me basically saying, well, there's delays, But guess what, you know, just hint in I don't have one that that's how I took that. But if people took it the other way, I have no problem with that. So that being said, I'm, I'm pretty much bullish and I do think my gut feeling is saying again, it's, it's not, it's just a fun guess. I, I think by next week we should hear something from them either about the Sweetwater one being energized or there, there should be some sort of communication, right, 'cause Irene knows they said it in the past that around April it should be done. And we also remember them doing monthly reports. So they're very big on delivery and that's something they are boastful about in a good way. So yeah, that being said, I'm I would say I'm still bullish.

Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm bullish too. I've said that I'm bullish May. That means that doesn't mean I'm not bullish for the last four days of April, but I just think there's a, you know, the people were expecting some kind of announcement on Monday. I think that's not not necessarily going to happen. I think they're the Monday is a public holiday in Australia and I think, you know, they will take these things into consideration even though when the market opens on Monday in the US, it's already, I don't know, very late, I guess. No, it will already be be on Tuesday if we are 4 hours difference. Yeah, it's, it's going to be twelve, 12:30 AM. Oh, hey, look, it is Shawn Swanson who wants to come up and talk. It's our favorite bear. Maybe he has something positive or bullish to say this time. I think we are now running into two hours. Oh no, I started an hour later. So we've only been an hour. Hey Sean, are you bullish or bearish? I'm.

Speaker 1: Probably like the most negative bull out there. I know that we spoke last week and just goes back to like kind of, it's kind of ironic that we're talking about communication. Just found one last time. I was just kind of talking about like their management team seeming to be not quite hitting like the opportunities like you said. So I guess my question is kind of going back, 'cause it's, you know, one of the things like as I consume other investor books, it's always having the ability to go back to your thesis and kind of stress test it, not try to protect it, but always try to try to like see, like, you know, where am I, where am I being wrong, being bullish and you know, am I wrong and things like that. So I guess my question is 2/1 is let's just play this out as kind of game theory. Like if for some reason, you know, they don't hit their Marks and you're decide to make a rotation, have you already had like considerations of like business sectors that you would go in? Like maybe you would not say, oh, I would go into company XY or Z, but maybe I would go into like photonics or like a different type of like memory or, or something else like foundry. And then this second question is, I've just noticed like one of the biggest kind of bulls on the market was like Hanter. And I've noticed that, and this might be like super old news, but I've seen that their price target has been slashed 3 Times Now from like 1:30 to 82. And I just wanted to kind of get your guys's opinion on that since you guys have been in it. And obviously you guys have been in it so early that, you know, I guess from your lens it's like how much is enough and you know, if they start to not come through.

Speaker 4: OK, so I'll take the second one first 'cause that's easy. I, I strongly believe Southside analysts have multiple agendas and I happen to know that some people high up in Cantor had a bad experience with the IRA management team last year with regards to, you know, I think Cantor was willing to finance something for the Oklahoma side which didn't happen. And then they got left on read or something. It was like a little bit of a awkward saying, I think that someone high up at Cantor just said OK Brett slash it just fuck them over and that's what they do. I mean respectfully, sell side analysts are fucking bitches. They will just do whatever their boss tells them to do. And if their boss has a a crutch against someone, then you know, they will slash. And I was a quite big fan of Brad because he was, you know, he's made the most sense because I think honestly, I think he's not personally believing in this price targets. I think he's just doing what's been told to him. So that's I think generally I think you should just take South side analyst with a grain of salt. I know I am probably ruining my chances of ever working together with them but you know I honestly don't give shit because I am independent so I will just be my own sell side analyst and I don't need anyone else to tell me when to sell iron. So that goes back to your first topic. What am I going to sell Iron for if they they mess up? Well, you know, this is again the whole story from last time. You know, do I want to entertain the thought that Iron will miss their, you know, execution for Microsoft and others and fumble the football and completely fail as an investment? You know, I don't know if I'm ready to do that. I do want to take bear cases serious. I want to not don't want to underestimate execution risk and things like that. But it goes a little bit far to talk about rotation when they are in the middle of delivery or not even in the middle. They're in the 3rd or 4th inning. I do can, I can't talk to you about diversification. Sure. I mean I have, I have some exposure to photonics. I have $17.00 January 27th synthetic longs on POET which I entered when they were seven and $8 around 7-8 dollars and POET is now 15 or $16.00 almost. So you can you know, I am very happy because I got paid like 9 1/2 dollars in credit for the synthetics and I could buy them probably back on the on the market on Monday for like 3 or $4.00 or no I guess maybe even less. Which means I have very nice return on them in just a matter of months 'cause bow it ran up from like 5 or $6 all the way to you know, $16.00 almost now. So, you know, I think photonics is a very interesting market and they are probably not the only or the best choice in in stocks. But I don't want to talk too much about stocks. There are so many choices. I think in the, you know, I think we are entering a very bullish year for stocks. I think the May has just been, you know, revised to be even more bullish than it was. I saw some projection from a quartz where May is now in the third quad or something. I don't exactly know how this how this is being measured, but it sounds bullish to me. I think Trump will probably pump the markets going into midterms. If there is anything left to save, we will we will get a better fat share. I think for markets there are a lot of reasons to be bullish and I think you can probably not be wrong with the picking a different stock outside of obviously picking losers. So let's entertain the fact if there would be a forced rotation, if I would see that OK, they have failed on Microsoft Delivery and Iron is a terrible company, then I would probably full port short on an EBS. Because if Iron can't deliver it, then sure as hell a bunch of incompetent Russian software guys cannot deliver AI infrastructure at scale. So you know, that would be the easiest short of a lifetime in that situation. So if there would be a rotation, it would probably be that one. You know, I never seen myself as a full porch short guy. But you know, if we are entertaining the what if, then that would be my first thought honestly. So I hope that just answers your question.

Speaker 1: It does. Do you use a cover, a ladder cover call strategy on all of your on any of your positions to like scrape premiums at all?

Speaker 4: No, I don't really use that's tactic, but I what I do some I, I do have a bull spread, a bull call spreads. So you know, long for example, I have long 34 short 115 or 110 for January on iron, which I initiated when iron was $34. So I kind of bought the call at the money and I sold the call, you know at a very high strike price. So these are these are obviously already very green, but that means that the the short call will you know, it's super red and we'll probably you know, there is a very reasonable situation that IRN actually exceeds $110 by January. If they do what I think they will do, if the market will front run their 2027 results because they have a very good execution in twenty 26th and you know, by my projections we could exceed $100 as soon as August, you know, so you know, in that in that situation, those spreads will just be what they are. I will just reap the spread and that's it. But that's a caps upside. But no, I'm not going to cover my calls, sorry. I'm not going to cover my, my core shares with laddered covered calls going into the best year of iron ever. You know, I mean, they are going to announce so many catalysts and you know, in the coming months and maybe in the coming 18 months. You know, that would be stupid to sell covered calls in this period of time. Because I've seen people in my subscriber group selling calls for $50.52 dollars, $51 last week that were like losing half of their hair because it was just how can iron all of a sudden breakthrough a call wall and then finish the week about $50 when we were all so sure that they needed a deal for that, you know? So I think selling covered calls, obviously I'm not giving investment advice or financial advice, but I would be very wary with selling covered calls in the coming. Because as volatile as iron is going down, we can have the same move going up. And I say that from experience with the stock. So, you know, just to put it out there and everyone is free to do what they want. If you sell covered calls, just be ready to pay the price if we do RIP.

Speaker 1: Are you adding more besides the call spreads that you've done, like to your long position?

Speaker 4: No, not, not really. I'm, I'm, I'm basically fully allocated. I did the last thing I thought was did was a single $75 synthetic long when we were 7047 1/2 dollars. So I, I usually what I like to do is if I have a free margin, I will go along synthetic at the money because those will you can usually buy them for a 0 or or a credit. So that means you, you pay nothing or you get paid to enter the synthetic long. If you have enough conviction that it will go up, you will RIP double hard because you know your entry price is either negative or zero and then everything that happens above your strike price is a massive upside. So the the returns are like exponentially phenomenal. It's great. But you know, obviously the flip side is if the stock goes down, you're you're probably forced to buy them at the money which is sent 47 1/2 dollars. If that's OK with you, then whatever. So that's what I do. I sometimes go synthetic long at the money, but it's I have my, my broker is Interactive Brokers and I have a margin account and they, they punish concentration a lot. So for me, it's not just like, oh, I have some spare cash, I'm going to buy a couple of extra shares. It's I, I am currently allocated to the to the tits. So I'm going to let it roll and I'm going to make my decisions going forward, you know, as the story unfolds this year. So yeah.

Speaker 1: I appreciate all your feedback and creating this this format. I'm not, I don't come here to like be negative. It's just like I'm always like trying to like make sure I'm not incorrect, you know, and I, I really respect everyone's research and time that they put into this. So thank you guys.

Speaker 4: Yeah, you're welcome. And I gladly welcome critical views and negative views. You know, just to make sure that people realize this is not an echo chamber. I won't censor negative views or people with opposing views. It's just it's it's good to have a a bit of an alternative look on things, but I am confident that they will execute on what they have entered into. I just hope that they are going to become a bit more, you know, realistic with their forward-looking guidance in terms of AR and you know, I think we will see with the next earnings how they will do that. I just realized we are way over 2 hours. So I am going to close the space here. Now it's time for, you know, for some rest and the market, the pre market will open in a little less than four hours. So it's looking good. I hope everyone had a great space and I will for my subscribers, I will publish a post with the Sweetwater super high definition satellite imagery later today. So something to look forward to. Thanks everyone for joining Butcher. Thanks so much for taking the time to join us from your holiday. And it's I wish you a nice last couple of days there and safe trip home and talk to you next week. And thanks for the speakers and thanks everyone for joining. Have a great Sunday night or a Monday and see you next week. Bye. The.

Frans Bakker: Hey guys, good evening. Welcome to our Sunday night iron space that we try to organize every week. This week's A.

Speaker 4: Little bit later.

Frans Bakker: Because I had some things I had to take care of 1st and I wasn't counting on Bitcoin Butcher to join me. But here we are. He's, he's with us already. Welcome, Butcher. How are you doing?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Thanks for having me, France. Good to see everyone. And just in a hotel room in Cayman.

Frans Bakker: Yeah, I figured you're probably not outside in the pool right now, but you did a lot of hard work for our share price sitting in the pool all week. So thanks for that. And well, actually judging the overnight prices, kind of looks like you're in the pool right now anyway was yeah. So for those of you who don't get it, Bitcoin Butcher is on a holiday with his with his wife for a week in Cayman Islands. And every time when it appeared that every time when he was sitting in the swimming pool, the share price of iron went up. At least that was what we concluded may or may not be true, but so basically that's the the gimmick. But anyway, I am not sure if if it's just overnight algos reacting to the Bitcoin surge, but you know, the end of the day risk on is all connected. So I usually judge Bitcoin as an indicator of the sentiment rather than a, you know, a real driver of of the share price of the the high beta stocks. But anyway, Friday was a little bit of a sell off, which I think Iran, you know, weathered pretty well relatively. I think we can be actually quite content with the the way the the stock performed on Friday. Some of the other names in the same industry like Core Weave and Ebus did pretty poorly. I, I had a discussion with someone, I forgot his name, but basically it was AII placed my bets that Nubius will never reach $200 or more per share. And he said that it will just need one anthropic deal and, and they will be there, but it's doesn't look like they have any capacity left. So, yeah, to piggyback on that topic, I think the main topic this weekend was the delays in data centers, the whole topic around the grid. There was an article from the White House. Let me just put it in the nest. I wanted to talk about this post actually, I I hoped that Mike Alfred would talk about this post during his space yesterday, but it was he didn't see my comment or it wasn't worth the his time. But I think this is a very interesting one to talk about today, as well as the the tweet from Dan Roberts and the article that he was reacting to that he failed to include in the Twitter version. But so, yeah, the, the general thesis of, of Iran is, has always been grid connected power is the most valuable kind of power and it's also the most scarce one and most difficult 1 to obtain if you're not taking years ahead to reserve capacity or form studies or anything of such nature. And well, already during the Bitcoin mining area era, we, we kind of figured out that Iran had this mysterious pipeline that they were always talking, talking about already in 2023 and 2024, I saw some of the pre IPOC decks where they had, you know, these unnamed sites all across the globe. Like there was a picture of Australia with one site at least that was pictured there. And over the time it slowly became clear that they have always been sort of sandbagging their pipeline. Initially it was we have over, we have over a GW more than what they disclosed. And that was before they announced Sweetwater. And then they came with Sweetwater, which was 1.4 GW and they still said we still have more than one GW in our pipeline on top of that. And then they came with Sweetwater too. And then it was still, we have more than one GW. And then recently they changed to we have multiple gigawatts in our pipeline. And then they announced Oklahoma and they still have multiple gigawatts in their pipeline. So we're, yeah, so quick mass brings us to 4.6 GW of grid connected power with a firm interconnection agreements and yeah, energization dates. And then on top of that, they are saying they still have multiple gigawatts of grid connected power. So I will go on record here saying that I have basically gathered enough evidence in my Discord and subscriber channel that this pipeline and everything that they have announced already combined will easily surpass 10 gigawatts. And I think that it is most likely between 10:00 and 12:00 gigawatts that I can, you know, sort of pinpoint right now. And that would be power which they, you know, can draw from up to 2035, I guess. So it's not like it's power that's going to be available next year or something. I'm talking about their pipeline. So just to you know, I think it's some of this power will be 20/30/2029. For example, Oklahoma Aaron hasn't really talked about the the two faced part of the the the project. If you look at the filings that they did or at at least at the county documents that they have discussed for the tax abatement, it is 600 MW is the first phase and then one GW is the second phase. And with the utility they have two separate interconnection agreements and I think the 600 MW is a bit more firm and clear on the energization data. The one GW form phase two, but it's I think it will be 6600 MW 1st and then a GW later. I think they're going to start building next year or at least like side civil works for the 600 MW and then the one GW will be rolled out I guess towards the end of the decade. So it's probably going to be be a phase project where they keep keep building and keep expanding the capacity. So this is also something which is why I I'm convinced of their 11:50 GW pipeline is iron isn't interested anymore in small sites. They've never really been interested in sites below 300 megawatts, but more recently they have just straight up said that they only looking at a GW and above, even for Australia for example, which is obviously pretty tough to, to realize. So I, I think at most it will get one GW size in Australia. I'm not like saying that it's going to be multiple GW sites over there, but just to give you an idea, there are probably like over 10 sites that we have, you know, in our in our focus for the long term. And let's just say if half of those are GW and the other half is like between 300 and 500 GW, you easily get to 12 GW. So that's a little bit about how to how I get to these calculations. For example, there is one side that's not too far from Childress where they applied for 600 MW, which is very early stage, like pre study stage or at the study stage. So you know, we're probably talking about 20-30. But just to give you an idea, that is probably going to be 5-6 hundred MW and up and most like mostly a GW and up. So anyway, just to talk about, you know, the the strong suit of iron, they got their power secured for the coming 9 to 10 years. And I think if some of you may have recalled Dan Roberts saying in 2024, I'm already thinking about 2029. I've quoted him a couple of times, but this is what he's been doing for the last five to seven years is securing grid connected power well into the future. So we are all reaping, you know the benefits of that now with the Sweetwater and you know Oklahoma's of of their portfolio. So anyway, so Iron is doing really well on this front, but there are a lot of other companies that are, you know, having some issues with getting grid connected power and a lot of them have diverted to behind the meter. And well, we've heard Dan Roberts on our space talk about behind the meter and I agree with him that grid connect power is way superior. But also the whole problem with the behind the meter power is that it's, you know, is the drawing from a pool of long lead time items that are in high demand, especially the turbines. And even having secured some turbines doesn't mean that you can just go ahead and power them because, you know, there are certain permits that are required. And it is also not easy, just as simple as a firing them up and connect the the racks. You know, there is a, a different process going on with these things to maintain your uptime. So I'm not extremely well educated in the behind the meter, you know, power. But I'll just say that I think there's a big part of the whole talk about delays for data centers. It's going to, you know, be around behind the meter. I think well, you know the the projects that we know about that have firm power grid connected power with energization days they are going ahead. As we saw for example Stargate phase one is grid connected and they have delivered that. But now they are running into the issue that the substation that they have and the line that's running into the site is only 138 kilovolts. And you know, you can only draw so many power from that and it's certainly not enough to power the whole Stargate sites. So I think they diverted to gas turbines as well. And I was informed that they sort of received the wrong ones or I'm not entirely sure how it went. But just to give you an example that if you don't perform your right due diligence and your studies in advance and your research and you go ahead and you start a 1.2 GW project on a 138 kilofolt substation, you're going to run into limits and constraints. And I think This is why it's interesting to see that iron has done a 750 MW site at Childress on a 345 kilofolt line and substation. You see that this less capacity, but higher voltage line. So you know, the, the vision of the iron guys versus the Crusoe and Lancium guys is very different. You know, iron is always targeting 345 kilovolt lines. They're not going with this smaller substations, these lower voltage lines, because ultimately that just means that your capacity is, you know, you're you're more capacity limited going into the future. So I guess I could run a whole monologue about why grid connected power is superior and why I think iron is positioned, you know, very well in this regard. But I think it is, there are more things to talk about when it comes to delivery of data centres. It's not just about power, even though power is becoming trendy again, like last year, I think the first half of 2025, the big buzz was around power, power, power. And then in the second-half of last year, it turned to chips again and memory and, you know, other components in the, in the chain. And now I what I'm seeing in the first half of this year so far is that despite the constraints around chips and memory, the number one being mentioned by stakeholders is power again. And yeah, I think that's a big part of the delays is most likely actually attributed to the lack of firm power. So, yeah, maybe I'll pause there and give maybe Butcher, maybe you can talk a little bit about that. How did you read Dan's tweet? Did you think he was talking bullish about Iran and just forgot to link the article talking about delays and or do you think that he was trying to temper expectations? Maybe we can talk a little bit about his tweet and because it's in the light of this subject, so like to hear your thoughts.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Yeah, Full disclosure, I scratched my head initially when I read it, but I was also at a dinner with a wine tasting that was like 4 or 5 drinks deep. So I think it probably overreacted a little like some of us if you did, because we're all human. But I took a step back this morning and. I viewed it more as a soft flex on his part. We could talk about semantics and was it effective messaging or whatever it is. But I think given the context of industry wide delays and then considering that just a few weeks ago he was echoing that horizon one through 4 remain on track. So I think it's more him speaking to when we interviewed him how they're putting out hundreds of fires simultaneously and it's a challenging job. But in spite of that, they continue to deliver or deliver at least better than their peers. So I think it was more him saying that we have a lot to look forward to with respect to the pipeline you spoke to. But I think just the existing sites and being on time. And I, I think what I want to see at earnings specifically is I wish they would give more color on I think people still and we're going to see we've estimated 60 to $80 million from Canada with Prince George on AI revenue. So revenue aside, I think it's just more this theme of time to compute, time to compute. Well, I think it's possibly just them like creating a timeline and just saying day one we start the retrofit day 60, we're plugging in GPU's, day 90, they're burnt in and they start producing revenue. But some sort of visual to help Southside actually understand why having those air cooled DC's are a competitive advantage not only in Canada, but also it appears in Childress that they're leaning in that direction. So I think for the foreseeable future, certainly we see progress with the Sweetwater site, but it's also understandable if they're holding off for Reuben. I personally going into the next few weeks here, I'd like to see with children specifically, I think that's the lowest hanging fruit where we can produce revenue quick enough and also at a fraction of the price via retrofitting as opposed to doing Greenfield site development and then talked earlier about the whole pipeline. I, I was interested in your view, I put in the nest. It appears there might be additional power in Canada, whether it was new sites or if it was additions to existing sites. It appears Canada power comes at a premium, which might be valuable for inference from a hyperscaler or an enterprise. And then lastly, the, the marketing spend that we've seen, it appears to be millions of dollars being spent in Australia, whether it's sponsoring the Sydney Swans or having marketing dollars spent on the trams that the public transportation. So they're clearly trying to make their presence felt in their home of Sydney. But the question is why? And but I again to full circle, I think the biggest opportunity for them to show incremental progress while the rest of the pipeline kind of it might take longer and it's not tomorrow, but they have a vision for the next 10 years as you were speaking to. But my immediate focus is on Childress for the reasons I've stated, Yeah.

Frans Bakker: So I've made some theories about extra power in Canada, as you know. You know, there are a couple of sites that we've also been looking at that have not been disclosed. But you know, I don't see that as a something that's going to happen anytime soon. I think the additional capacity would have to come from expansion projects, like for example, the 30 to 35 megawatts in Prince George or the 20 megawatts in Mackenzie. I have, yeah. I've kind of given up on that since, you know, they've started to become extremely fake about the data center they build in Prince George. When Dan said it was immaterial, 10 megawatts immaterial. I also kind of revised my look on the on the layout of the data center. If you remember initially they added the extra data center in a earnings presentation where it was comprised of eight squares and two of them were colored as to be the 10 MW proof of concept for liquid cooling where they would deploy the GB three hundreds that they acquired. But I think looking back and after my careful consideration and analyzation of the size, I think those were not, you know, 5 MW quarters making it like a, you know, like a 40 MW building. I think it was just a 2.5 megawatts compartment like that would make it like still 10 MW overall. So I, I kind of gave up on the whole extra power coming. I know that that the former VP of OPS for Canada, who is now VP of, of OPS globally, Glenn has mentioned in an interview that there would be 30 megawatts coming to PG and 22 Mackenzie. I still have a clip somewhere where he's saying that, but it's just, you know, it's never been mentioned again. No one talks about it. Maybe it's just very difficult right now in in Canada where I think new projects need to apply for some kind of tender or I don't know, like they need to get allocated capacity for a certain amount of time, like for one or two years. And yeah, I mean, I guess there are other interesting things. I don't know, maybe Canada will come at a premium, but I think there we should rather look at Kennel Flats for something, you know, material. I think it is obvious that they left Kennel Flats out of their 2026 guidance is 30 MW. It will be mining Bitcoin until September. That was at least what they initially said. But it seems to me that, you know, if you have a retrofit of a couple of weeks, which they've been, you know, pounding the table on like, oh, we just roll out the Bitcoin mining ASICS and then, you know, we do a little bit of work here, add some generators and then roll in the GPU racks. It's yeah, it nothing has actually been, you know, shown that it's, it's, it's that quick. They can retrofit in a couple of weeks, sure. But if you're waiting for generators that take a couple of months and for GPU's that take six months, then what what is the, you know, what is your strength here in retrofit time? So honestly, I, I think that candle flats is a part of, you know, a 2027 delivery for compute and that would most likely point at Rubens. So I kind of, that's why I always kept kind of flats as a part of the earnings report. I'm, I'm putting Australia a little bit lower on my priority list or slash wishlist, if you will. I know that Australia has seen a lot of advertising and Dave had obviously been into conversations with Microsoft Entropic and there's been this new entity that they created in New South Wales. And I think the most recent thing that we saw is they are hiring a substation engineer or substation designer for, for their Sydney office. And you know, I know that it's initially we thought that these would just be like remote workers that would work from the office and provide support around the clock for the time zone difference to to work with like engineers in Texas or Canada. But we've now actually seen the wording data center sites, Australian data center sites and boots on the ground and whatnot. So I see we have a speaker who is from Australia. If I if you're an Adelaide United fan, then maybe you're from John. Do you have any thoughts on Australian projects or iron in general your first time come to speak with us? Let us know your thoughts. Go ahead or not. If you want to speak then just raise your hand going forward. I thought I'd just give you a chance to speak now. But anyway. So yeah. So despite all the advertisements and tram sponsors and whatever we've seen in Australia from Iran, the Swans sponsorship as well, I don't think it is like imminent for a commercial deal myself. I think personally there are other projects that are, you know, more urgent, as you said, Butcher Childress is most likely, you know, more imminent obviously because there's already data centers there and power running. And then of course the Sweetwater side and the whole things, you know, the things in Canada are probably more easy to contract as there's already power flowing. But nevertheless, I still think Australia is on my list. I just would expect that if they announce something, it is most likely a site project with a.

Speaker 4: Tenants or a customer or a joint venture partner. So I think it's probably more complex. I think you know, could be this earnings or could be the next. At the very least, I think they'll mention something around Australia during the earnings. It's pretty material if you're starting to hire like a twenty 3050 people and spend a couple of million.

Frans Bakker: On advertisements in in the country, maybe it's worth a question from an analyst at least. So let's see if I mean, I, I posed the question to Dan and myself like what's going on why what's up with all the sponsorships and then he just started to talk about we have a global focus, but also a focus on Australia. I think that now, I think it's been like a month or a month and a half since we had that space. I think now it's, you know, they probably have something more to talk about now, especially since the creation of that subsidiary and a bunch of other rumors that have come from SA. So let's see. But my personal expectation is #1 will be the announcement of Horizon 5:00 and 6:00. That is the absolute number one that I expect to happen between this very moment and May 7th on or before May 7th. So I think they're going to talk about that because it's going to happen. I think they're going to talk about, you know, displacing some minors in children's, potentially clearing some area, maybe demolishing a couple of mining buildings in the process. I think right now these things are still unconfirmed, but it's very likely to happen. And this is also a bit of a confusing topic within the iron investors on on Twitter. Why is iron talking about air cooling, air cooling, air cooling, and then they start to talk about Horizon 5 to 6 being liquid cooled again. So I think this could only be indicative of a, you know, strong customer demand and potentially better deal terms because, you know, for Iron to go back into the 11:50 million a megawatts in cutbacks for data centers, they probably need to have a, a much better top line to justify that. So I'll add to that expectation of Horizon five and six that it's I, I, I'm going to go on a record here and say that it will also be with Vera Rubens. So I think, you know, obviously Microsoft would be the most easy customer and I think it makes sense if it's called Horizon 5 and 6. I cannot 100% say that it will be called Horizon 5 and 6. I just I'm pretty sure about there will be 100 MW of IT load coming liquid colds in Childress. And I just think it will make absolutely zero sense to start construction for data Center for for two data centers. Well, our six buildings I guess in the middle of 2026 when Vera Rubin's coming in around the time those will be finished. So I think it will be for Vera Rubin. And I think we will also hear something about conclusion of the substitution clause for horizon 3 and 4. Horizon three and four look very different from Horizon 1 and 2. I think tomorrow I'll get a new satellite image from Childress, which could maybe give us a few hints. But to give you one example, there are no roof fans on Horizon 3, which is very weird because Iran has always build data centers with roof fans, and the newest three buildings don't have any fans on top there. There is no inlets. There are no, you know, it's like a solid roof and there are also no side inlets. There are, you know, no filter backs have been spotted. It's a it's a different design again. So first we see Horizon One with a liquid cooling facility or.

Speaker 4: Or.

Frans Bakker: Liquid cooling plant, I guess with the fans hanging down. And then Horizon 2 sees a completely different design where there are like fins on top, even though the data centers and everything is the same as between Horizon 1:00 and 2:00. But they changed the design of the liquid cooling plant. Maybe it's a different supplier or maybe it's a different version or I don't know, iteration. And then Horizon 3, all of a sudden they have changed the data center itself and they have decided that OK, now we're going to stop using roof, fence and side inlets. I guess it's part of the whole best practices and refinement process that they run. But it's, you know, interesting to see that within a set of four Horizon one to four, they've already made three changes in the first 3. And you know, obviously the wells, those big rounds towers where they store the water have been built for all four of the data centers. But for example, the liquid cooling plant for Horizon 3 has not been built yet. So the, and the the fourth data center Horizon 4 is also seeing something new is where they are doing all the underground work first and doing the concrete shells, I mean the concrete and the shells later. So I think, you know, we talked a lot about what, why is Horizon one to four and the Microsoft contracts, you know, why does it have a negative, you know, MPV, why is it a single digit IRR and levered? Why is it a bad deal? You know, but at the end of the day, you're going to see that this is a, you know, it's a first project. It's like a test tube baby. And it's, you know, let's not forget that Iron and Microsoft are not just customer and supplier, they're also partners in design. And I think that that's that's why you see these refinements through the process of the construction. And I think it's going to look really funny. If you see a satellite image in a year from now, you're going to see the top view of the horizon 124 and it's going to look completely different like 1234. It's like, you know, pick your flavor. But you know, this was the same thing with the mining buildings. After all, like Block 1 was 20 MW buildings with these massive roof fans. And then Block 2 going forward had like these smaller roof fans and were 25 MW buildings. So I think, you know, going forward I think we're going to see a more unified design or like a standard design of a liquid cooling shell where they will apply all the best practices. So most likely Horizon 5 and 6 for example will look very much similar to horizon three and four rather than to horizon one and two. And I think we'll see the same thing in Sweetwater.

Speaker 4: Where they will obviously not start over again with learning, but they will apply all everything they learned from the Microsoft deal. So I think the Microsoft deal is just a very fancy R&D project at the end of the day. It's not a cash generating project. It's, you know, it is, it's validation. It's a food in the door.

Frans Bakker: And it's a start of a partnership and it will give iron a very rich, you know, experience and skill set of delivering, you know, 200 kilowatt rack density, liquid cool data centers. And hopefully they will be able to deliver them at pace, a high pace. So that's how I see Childress, I expect. So I expect Horizon 5 and 6 announced with Fiora Rubin's decision around Horizon 3 and 4 substitution clause and potentially the announcement that they delivered the first data center of Horizon One. So the first building of the three to Microsoft. The GPU's are already on site and I expect them to be installed by now. The Horizon One first building has been fenced off, so it's now a security clearance event. So if you want to go inside, you need to show a badge. So it's like now it is really a Microsoft environment. So if you're not on the list and you're not getting in anymore, so that shows that it's in the handover face. And I guess maybe Microsoft will be, you know, involved in the burning in process. But you know, we still have a 1 1/2 weeks until earnings. I think it's quite obvious they're going to announce, you know, a very triumphant handover of the first building, which is a bit meager. I can understand most of you were, you know, expecting all of this to happen 1/4 ago, but you know, to go back to dance, tweet, the real world can't always keep up with the digital world and the the same thing applies to iron. But you know, on the one hand, we are investors and we want revenue to hit as soon as possible, but on the other hand, what is more important?

Speaker 4: If you look.

Frans Bakker: At Microsoft, the Microsoft contract has a liability. Then all you want is them not to.

Speaker 4: You know, get delays and penalties and just deliver within a certain grace period or you know, so let me just say that I would love to see the revenue hit earlier, but at the end of the day, I just want them to deliver on time. So since we don't know, what are the ultimate deadlines for the for the first three buildings?

Frans Bakker: All we all I can say is if they don't get any sort of delay or penalties, then it's fine for me, you know so and the biggest hurdle will always be the first building and then the second hurdle will be the first three buildings and then the third hurdle will be the first 100 MW cluster. So it will get easier, you know, I think it will get a lot easier.

Speaker 4: After the first building is delivered and then you know, going forward, it's just going to get to go a lot smoother. So yeah, if I look at the the quarter that they're going to talk about on May 7th, it's also most likely the last quarter where the revenue expectations will be, you know, a bit higher than what they're going to deliver. Obviously it's going to be a bit of a, you know, soft quarter in terms of AI revenue and in terms of, you know, overall revenue. I think Bitcoin was performing pretty poorly during the quarter. Not that it should be material, but you know, from a cash flow perspective, it would be nice to have a bit of mining revenue, but it was, we've seen a lot of hash go down and Bitcoin being down South. I think the best metric will be, and I think they're going to milk that is the quarter of a quarter metric. So it's from $17 million to like say 60 or $65 million. It's going to be a 4X. So they're probably going to make the headline for 400% increase in AI revenue or something like that. You're probably think back of this space when you see their earnings report, because I think it's going to be on the first page in big letters outside of obviously any other big announcements like, you know, Vera Rubin or Australia or something. But so, yeah, so I think that the May earnings will be the last sort of underwhelming earnings report in terms of the actual PNL. And so I think you know, it will be the one where they have to talk, where they will have to announce, where they have to guide, where they have to explain their ARR guidance with regards to the new purchase of the B3 hundreds.

Frans Bakker: It could be the earnings where they announce a new GPU purchase. I think it's about time that they start to do this, particularly if they've raised money through the ATMI. Think it will be wise if they will pair that with a announcement of GPUs because not not to say that I want them to pay for the GPUs with the ATM, raise money, but just to lever the you know.

Speaker 4: The equity in terms of adding depth, so I see new GP US as a form of depth because I think that they are you know bankable in terms of you know acquire them and then 30 days later you can pay for them, but you can finance them with the GPU that finance I think if iron raises equity for the purpose of leveraging.

Frans Bakker: The balance sheet, I think I'm OK with that, even though you know, obviously the, you know, the past months the price has been absolutely horrific. So I would be slightly, I would, I would be disappointed if they have raised in the 30s honestly. But you know, since we know.

Speaker 4: The Dan likes to tap the ATM at $6 as well. Who knows, they may have raised at 3030 one $32. You know, at the end of the day, it's accretive, right. So yeah, I, I see we have a a new speaker.

Frans Bakker: Bitcoin, you butcher, you let him come up. Maybe you want to introduce Chase and have a little chat with him. I'm going to grab something to drink.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Chase, come on up. How are you this evening?

Speaker 1: I'm good, I'm good. How are you?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Doing wild, you got the floor. What would you like to talk about?

Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. I just wanted to add a little insight in regards to the power secure process. I, when I first started my career, well, couple of years ago, I used to work for a major utility company in the South of the United States. And there was just constant discussions about headcount issues in regards to what it means to, to, to train their, their lineman or the people that work that are working on substations, right? The Apprentice program is roughly 3 to 4 years. And there's a really high turnover rate. That's just public information as well. And what, what makes it really grueling is that they have to wear these, these like PPE clothing. So it's like these like thick, thick, you know, long, long sleeves, long pants, material that's supposed to protect them and they're dealing with electricity or on these construction sites. And so there's just a low pass rate when it comes to The Apprentice program. So, you know, we have all you're hearing about all of these plans to, I guess, secure power for these companies, but it's just not as cut and dry now. I think it's important to be mindful that the company that I worked for was very had strong like operational excellence piece to it. But essentially there's a, there's, there's like a headcount issue. And I can imagine it's only increasing because the energy demands also increasing. And then I used to have conversations with just some of the engineers as well. They're, they're stressed out, they're overworked. So it's on both sides. I know a lot of companies are announcing, you know, what they want to do and so forth, but I think the timelines might be optimistic. But that's just my perspective.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: So if I'm understanding it correctly, you formally worked in the utility sector? I'm kind of reading this back just to make sure if anyone missed what you said. You worked in the utility sector and given the labor requirements for lineman, I think you said and it's a high turnover apprenticeship program that leads you to believe that some of these timelines for the utility delivering the requested capacity, you find you are, I would say skeptical. Is that a fair assessment?

Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. I think, you know, they're, they're giving the, they always give the conservative case whenever they're doing projections, but I am skeptical on whether or not they will consistently hit their mark. So it's just something to be mindful of when people are super excited about, you know, future demand coming online and so forth. But it's just not cut and dry. But I think everyone's aware of that, so.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: What would you say just playing both sides of it? I think it's a good point for the industry, but I think I would playing devil's advocate after hearing Franz speak earlier if you weren't on, he's estimated we've announced 4.5 gigawatts of power through let's say 20272028 with Oklahoma. But with the remaining pipeline, it might end up being 11:50 gigawatts. And given the company's ability to build that might cover them through let's say 20-30 or 2032 does that. And I didn't ask are you a shareholder or you just interested in the topic? Or maybe that would help too?

Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, Iron, yeah, shareholder, but no, I, I, I, I can't really speak on or I don't really have much insight on like what how people are going to hit their targets or if it is achievable. You know, I feel like, you know, Iran has displayed that operational excellence piece and they're pretty good at projecting timelines, but I'm not sure when it comes to the other companies and those discussions. So but yeah, that's pretty much it. I just wanted to get.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I think that makes me more sorry to interrupt. I would, I guess my point is that makes me bullish assuming they can deliver on time, which so far we have and I think that's the point of differentiation. I guess that's the whole point of Dan's relaying the delays in the industry is to differentiate Iron amongst its competitors. And you have newer behind the meter participants that haven't built the data center yet or legacy Bitcoin miners. They've signed a deal and they actually signed deals prior to Iron yet Iron's delivering Horizon one before they've completed their first data center. So personally that gives me confidence I, if I'm being, I think what I would want to see from Iron, there were acceleration fees that was $2,000,000 per MW that are part of the reason why Horizon one through 4 cost roughly 15,000,000 per MW. So a little ran a little higher than everyone was expecting, which I think was initially a shock. So I hope Kent and Anthony and Dan are able to convey whether we should expect to see that going forward. Like if they're, if they are locking up deals with some of the parties, we hope that they team up with is them, are we expected to pay that acceleration fee going forward? Or is the client going to start paying a premium because they're realizing no one else can deliver at the pace iron can. So those are, you know, I, I remain bullish, but I try and be self critical of my hypothesis. And that's one thing that I noticed last time that I would like to see as it pertains to DC construction related to Horizon 5:00 and 6:00. What I wasn't able to comment earlier while Franz was discussing it everyone is if Horizon one through 4 if you guys remember was 300 gross megawatts out of 750 at Childress, but it was 200 megawatts of critical IT which is you have the critical, IT is what you can run the GP us on, whereas the rest of its supporting infrastructure for cooling and just background power and kind of support for the DC. So if we assume Horizon five and six are half the size of Horizon one through 4, conservatively that project horizon one through 4 was $2 billion annually of recurring revenue or 1.9. So on a terrible day, I think we can expect an additional $1 billion of forward ARR. But given that it's Ruben, I kind of, I'm not sure if Franz is back yet, but I would be interested in his perspective on this. But we're running GV three hundreds at Horizon one through 4. He's talked about how there's a clause in the contract where they could negotiate with Microsoft and Microsoft could upgrade to Rubens, which is part of the reason why Horizon one through 4 had flexible racks where they could shift from. I believe it's 130 kilowatt rack density for GV three hundreds and now up to 200 for Verirubin. Now with five and six. If there's studies that show that Reuben will be three to five times more effective than the GB 300 for inference, why that matters is those are more tokens it can produce in tokens our consummate with revenue. Now the cost of the token will go down overtime, but I find it hard to believe that we're only going to get a billion dollars out of Horizon 5 through 6. And I would think it's closer to 1.5 billion to $2 billion, which given that our current guidance is $3.7 billion. If you can add an additional 1 1/2 billion dollars that gets you over 5 billion and you know 2 would get you closer to 5.7 or just shy of 6. So I think that even though it's only two data centers per SE, that just speaks to the power of Reuben and I, I think that's an opportunity for the guys on the call to speak to is how they are maximizing the value per MW. And that given that there are delays in the marketplace, they might not sign something immediately, even if it's for air cooled DC's because they're waiting on GPU delivery. And if there's a shortage of data centers and a shortage of available GPU's, then it's quite likely that the price is going to rise and they're going to agree upon contract terms right before they install it to optimize the amount of revenue that they're generating per MW. So those were just a few thoughts, friends, that I had from earlier that I couldn't get in. But Chase, thanks for coming up. You're welcome to raise your hand if there's anything else you want to speak on. But related to your question, like I think your skepticism of our competitors is not only is it healthy, but it actually makes me more more bullish about the company that we own.

Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah. No, I totally agree. And I think, I think what's interesting as well is that before this whole, before the entire AI discussion, tech companies were having regular capacity issues when it came to data centers. And of course, the whole AI made that even worse. But no, overall, thanks for bringing me up. I've been listening to you guys for a long time now. So it's nice to be on stage and just kind of hear you, hear your hear everyone's thoughts.

Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah. Thanks for coming up, Chase. I didn't hear everything you said, but for the most part, I got it. So you're welcome to join us in the future. So yeah, I I'm not going to go into delays at competitors now because that will turn into one Big Bear talk about Nibius, most likely. So I'm not going to go into that right now. I want to stay positive and focus on iron. So yes, Butcher, I have some thoughts on your thoughts. So let's take it apart and look at a few things that Aaron has said and then we can go back and apply that to Childress. So first of all, we know that Aaron has not oversubscribed their megawatts for Horizon. That means they have allocated 300 megawatts of gross IT, sorry gross power to 200 MW of IT load. But it doesn't mean that they're going to use 300 MW. And actually it also means doesn't mean they're going to use 200 MW of IT load for Horizon One to.

Frans Bakker: 4.

Speaker 4: They are applying this as sort of as a buffer and within those megawatts they're going to deliver the Microsoft contract, whatever that may be. So either it's GB three hundreds or it's a mix of GB three hundreds and Fiera Rubens. This, you know, that will depend on the substitution clause where I think they will have to make a decision for in May. There are a bunch of other things that Irons also said that I think initially when they were talking about the last 75 megawatts that was available. If you remember, originally Block 6 was placed right around the place where there was a, a parking lot now, so, so if you remember, they used to have these drawings in the monthly OP reports where you would see block 12345. And then block 6 was placed like right below block 5 where there is now, you know, web station and some other things. But back in the day, there was only 100 MW left after the 650 MW of Bitcoin mining. And they had said that they would build you, you know, they would go to 52 exa hash and for this last two exa hash, they would build 125 MW building right below the substation for that. That's primary substation 6, which is actually that substation is still there. It's now powering horizon one to three of a willpower horizon one to three. But my point is there was 75 MW left that they were were discussing what to do with it. And then I think there was an analyst question during one of the earnings calls where they said that would you repurpose these buildings? And then the whole, you know, would you repurpose these mining buildings? And then I think then start to talk about, you know, like children's being an AG or something. Anyway, the bottom line of the whole conversation was that they said that they would rather just build a bunch of new Bitcoin mining buildings. You know, I think that yes, the, the question from the analyst was in the future, if AI would die, would you be able to repurpose those AI buildings to mining again? And then that's when he said we would rather just build a bunch of Bitcoin mining buildings again. I think that was the the thing. So why am I saying this now is because I think that they are going to potentially, you know, take down a couple of mining buildings for liquid cooled AI buildings now. And I think that this speaks volume of the, you know, incentive from the customer to, you know, because, you know, they have been boasting about, oh, we have so much space in children's, we could expand to the east and to the South. And it's true, the footprint of the site is huge and they have a lot of unused ground that they could build on. So, you know, why do they decide to, you know, physically build Horizon 5 and 6 next to 1 to four? That's most likely because they are going to, you know, sell it to the same customer. So I kind of got this thought while I was, you know, reacting to your your thoughts, Butcher. So I think 5:00 and 6:00 will most likely go to Microsoft as well. And you know if substitution clause will go to Ferro Rubin, that means that you will see Ferro Rubin in three and four and then also in five and six. And with regards to your acceleration fee, I don't think that's going to be applied because the acceleration fee was for Microsoft. I know Jim, Jim Liu has some different thoughts on this. He says it was just to pay for getting the long lead time items quicker. And you know, Irene had to pay a surcharge for that. I think it was more related to, you know, the stuff the the night shift workers and you know, just get all the equipment faster. So not particularly just for for long lead time items. I think it's just an overall increase in workforce getting all the materials and all the cranes and everything to the site build out the workforce. I mean like they, they've hired like a / 100 pipe fitters in the last couple of weeks. They are really ramping up the workforce like crazy. Like hundreds of people are being added to this to the team per month. Like so it's so you know, it's it's going, I think that for a horizon five and six, they won't need to have an acceleration fee again. Why do I say that is because I think it's going to be for fewer Ruben. So I think the buildings can take a little bit longer to to be constructed because the chips will be only ready like let's say a year from now. So I think that with all the experience they got from Horizon one to four, I think they will be able to construct two more in a much faster fashion. So I think it's, you know, if they take their sweet time to build a very good Horizon 5 and 6 to be ready by H12027 with Vera Rubens for Microsoft, you know, there is no need for an acceleration fee because they can just keep doing what they've been doing, keep the same subcontractors, you know, apply best practices and all the refinements from Horizon one to two and just keep going. The only thing they needed to add is maybe demolition charges, maybe instead of an acceleration fee is a demolishing fee or something. So yes, so I think the focus will be on revenue per MW. And this is also our bread and butter from Bitcoin mining, obviously with the, you know, shoes for Terra. Hi Ash. Efficiency was always the number one thing what what attracted me in iron, you know, in regards to their Bitcoin mining economics. So I think that we're going to see this again in terms of the, you know, tokens per MW, revenue per MW. I think it's going to be what sets them apart from their competitors besides of course delivery and execution. So yes, I agree with you Butcher. I think they're going to squeeze out a lot more tokens, a lot more revenue out of the megawatts to have a children's then that they are currently guiding for. I think they are sandbagging. I think they are the way that Iran established their guidance is looking backwards and I think that is knowingly sandbagging. I think they are knowingly telling the market they're going to deliver poor results and then they when they actually do deliver, they want to surprise to the upside. I think that's the whole thing that they're doing. I can only say this obviously for so long because if they keep under delivering like with the $17 million of AI revenue in the last quarter, you know, at some point I I'm going to look like a fool. So obviously they have to surprise to the upside at some point. I don't think it's going to be this quarter though, but you know, going forward, I think that that's what's going to happen. So, but sure, go ahead.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Given the emergence of Horizon 5:00 and 6:00, that's 150 megawatts gross. You spoke to Horizon one through 4 being undersubscribed I think was your the terminology that you used. So there's certainly an opportunity to maximize revenue and Horizon one through 6, but that still leaves 300 gross megawatts and they previously allocated 17, 1000 GP US to Childress in their AK filing from March related to the 50K MW purchase. And I agree that that if you take the 1.3 million, excuse me, billion dollars and divide it by the 50,000 GP US comes out roughly to $3.00 per hour, which is roughly 25% increase versus the increase of the GP US and cost about 50%. So I agree with you Franz that they're sandbagging and I'd like to see that come to fruition at some point in the financial statements, whether it be May or August. But my follow up question related to your explanation on five and six is what about the remaining 300 megawatts? Does this change your opinion on what they're going to do with the rest of that site? Do you think it's still possibly Ironcloud being used for inference using air cooled data centers to retain the existing infrastructure? Or do you think now there's signal that whether it's Microsoft or another potential hyper larger enterprise may given the demand that Kent's spoken to and liquid cool, they might just say screw it and knock them all over. And then it might in the short term be viewed as a wasted data center. But they could build something that has a 20 to 30 year life as opposed to air cooled data centers that might realistically have a 5 to 10 year life. If you have any thoughts on that, I would be interested in hearing more.

Speaker 4: Yeah. So I think the time to data center time to compute and air cooled was indicative of customer interest and you know you can apply that as a sort of a BATNA I guess. But I think going forward I think that this is a consideration for iron. You know, will we accept B3 hundreds to arrive in late Q4 or in Q1 of 2027 or do we just build VR200 data centers instead that we can deliver 1/4 later and get the chips then as well? You know, if the, IT is like a, a chart where you know first the, the, the, the Y will the Y axis will go up in terms of deliver B3 hundreds, but then it will go down again in time where the VR2 hundreds is coming around, you know around the corner. So I think that iron is now in the phase where they have to decide that you know, will we take the lower CapEx and the lower revenue per megawatts from the B3 hundreds or do we just let those data centers be idle for two, 3-4 months and then slam dunk VR2 hundreds in there with a much higher revenue per MW? I think that the IT is likely that the B3 hundreds that they've ordered the 50 thousands where they directed 17,000 ish to Childress. I see a world where those were the last B3 hundreds that they will ever order for Childress. I think that if the customer demand is so strong that they've already decided now that they're going to go ahead and you know direct another 150 megawatts of gross power towards 100 MW of IT load. You know that now you're talking about 450 MW out of the 750 and then they have 50 MW already for the 17,000 B three hundreds. That leaves only 250 megawatts of gross power that is still left there. You could wonder if it is, you know, this is really worth to retrofit them only for B3 hundreds and go with these chips that are you know, if they'd if they haven't ordered them by now, Do you really think that B3 hundreds that will be ordered this this month or next month will arrive in 2026? I think it's only likely. I think that this is also the reason why irons now, you know, looking at VR2 hundreds and especially given that Jensen has said that they will prefer delivering to customers that have, you know, capacity to run these GPUs for VR200. I think that, you know, there is a a likely situation that Irene will announce, you know, VR2 hundreds for the remaining capacity of children's. I know that this is this sounds again like I am flip flopping and changing my mind completely, but I'm just following what I'm seeing. I mean.

Frans Bakker: If the B.

Speaker 4: Three hundreds would be the ultimate solution for ironed and they would have, you know, bought more by now. But instead what we hear is they have most likely decided to go with more liquid cooling there. So you know, if following the the facts on on the ground, it appears that for now they are looking more at Ferro Rubin. And I think that outside of GB three hundreds for Microsoft and what they've ordered so far for Canada, I think the the main theme going forward is going to be Ferro Rubin. I think the IT makes the most sense. It is the best model to squeeze the most tokens and revenue per MW out of their existing data centers. I mean, out of their existing power infrastructure is a better way to say it because obviously if they knock down mining buildings, they can't you repurpose those. But yeah, so I am watching this closely. Another thing I could probably tell the tell the crowd here is that Iron's now deciding, decided they're going to construct a man camp in Childress, which is another demonstration of Iron's finally thinking of where to sleep these people that they are, you know, letting park.

Frans Bakker: Outside of the parking lots because they are full, you know the.

Speaker 4: There are real world, real world constraints with having more than 2000 people on a on a data center site. So these include food and parking spaces and, you know, also accommodation. So I think this is a very positive development, but it also shows that iron is not just here to flip the side into B3 hundreds. I think it means that they are going to continue long, a long cycle of liquid cool data center construction in children's. I think they're going to yeah, it's going to go in that direction. And I think that's indicative of both customer demand and Ferro Rubin demand. So Butcher, you want to comment because you got your hand up.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I think that was from earlier. If it's all right, Franz, we'll go to SI and then Michael was next. SI, good evening.

SI: Hey, good evening and thanks Franz and Richard for all this information. So I have a technical question, I'm not sure whether you have the answer yet or not or this weekend I'm researching in a topic of some of the Vera Rubin configurations and the 2027 Kyber ships. Michael and in 600 Watt to one MW track densities and it appears that the industry is moving towards 800 Volt DC. Did you guys see any, any clues into the way they are ordering their substations or any other? I'm not sure if the analysts have covered this before. Any clue into if Iron is adapting the sort of architecture or they're still sticking with the traditional 400 Volt 400 Volt UPS and whatnot?

Speaker 4: I I know that Horizon has 405 volts DC Transformers, so I guess that is the 400 that you're talking about, right? I think. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Frans Bakker: I think this is the.

Speaker 4: Microsoft required voltage standard for for their GB 300 clusters. Other than that, you know, I, I have no clue honestly. I I have a super high definition Sweetwater satellite image in front of me and I can completely follow the wires all through the the the bulk substation into you know the utility substation and on the other side towards the primary substation, but.

SI: I have.

Speaker 4: I have no idea about, you know what, where is the, the, the decision to go with eight hundredfold. I mean, obviously a primary substation pumps out 34.5 kilofolds. I guess this is still AC. So I think if you're you're going to decide that you're going with eight hundredfold DC, it's going to have to come. Somewhere after that, so you're going to have like a.

SI: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 4: Like APU or something like some kind of a step down from there and then, you know, this is not something we can see from satellite imagery or you know, can we can only anticipate it. But you know, you have to re remember. Can you use 800 full DC with the favorite Rubin 200? I don't think so, right? I think this is for Kyber.

SI: Right.

Speaker 4: Yeah. So I think Kyber is for Ruben Ultra and I, you know, I don't think Ruben Ultra is on the menu right now. So, you know, I guess that that sort of answers your question if, if they expect to deliver Sweetwater compute in 2027, I think we have to, you know, focus on VR200 rather than VR300. I think that makes sense.

SI: Yeah, I got another question.

Speaker 4: Go.

SI: Ahead.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: Sounds like you had your next question. What were you going to say? Say.

SI: Yeah. So do you, do you think, you know, considering that we started late in revenue recognition last quarter and 17 mil is what we have recognized, do you think they're going to catch up and meet the 2026 guideline 26 guidance or do you think that we're going to, we're going to fall short by the end of this year? And also recently you know, I've gone, I haven't gone through the numbers, but there's a fun going around saying that Iron has guided down there air revenue. I haven't seen anything like that. So just wanted to clarify with you if you guys have seen anything like that.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: The only thing I can think of on the ARR guidance deliveries and I think France can speak to the delivery of the DCS and connecting better than I can. But from a number standpoint, I had made the comment earlier that if you take the there's $1.3 billion of revenue. If you exclude, let's see, Prince George was 500 million and then Microsoft was 1.9, that's 2.4 billion and then you get to 3.7. That's where I'm getting the 1.3 from the difference and I think where some people have been critical of iron including myself and guidance is that 1.3 billion only shows an improvement of 25% in pricing, even though we're seeing way higher increases in spot prices in the GPU market. I can understand that the contracted rates going to be lower, but my concern with how they're guiding is that it implies that they're not recovering the increased CapEx numbers for, as an example, B3 hundreds. Last year the company was paying anywhere from 40 to I think it was closer to 50,000 per GPU, while now they're paying 70,000 per GPU. So 20 over the 50 is an increase of 40%. So that might be what it relates to Sai.

SI: OK. Isn't it, is that the difference, I know that you know the prices have increased on the CapEx side, but does that imply also that they can they have started a bit late, maybe it's a catch up of the earlier batch. There's a reason why they won't do want to cross a fixed number. I mean that number a lot.

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I'm not sure I understand. Can you repeat that one more time?

SI: So I was thinking that the reason they did not guide it, they did not guide as per the increased rates reflecting the CapEx and whatnot is because they wanted to do a catch up of revenue that because they have started late with this fresh batch of GPUs or did I get that wrong?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I, I don't think it, I think it's more just Franz can speak to the history better. But my understanding is when they initially got, they invested in hoppers initially and the price of hoppers crashed where that's why we saw underwhelming Ironcloud numbers for a number of years before they made their push into the newer B2 hundreds and B3 hundreds last year and now got particles in here. And we've seen I think starting last October or November, it's gone straight up into the right for the past 6-7 months, which is a more optimistic pricing environment. But I also think given that, I think it gets back to the 17 million last quarter when they were initially guiding for 200 to 250, so let's say 225 for year end. They weren't necessarily saying they were going to have 225 for the prior quarter, but that they were going to have everything installed. But then we got more information and realized that those deliveries weren't on time. And I think that's part of the reason why they ended up partnering with Lenovo, an additional OEM besides Dell, so that they could make sure that that delay was no longer a concern. So I think as part of their guidance to manage that going forward in case there were GPU delays, I think they purposely kept it low so that as they're signing contracts with higher rates, even if they don't necessarily install the GPU's on time, the higher rates will cushion that along with, you know, when you combine that with lower guidance. So that's just kind of my take on it. But Franz, if you have anything to add, otherwise, we can go to Michael.

Speaker 4: No, I have nothing to add on guidance. I just like generally I said that I think they are applying past metrics and known customer contracts with the future guidance which is purposely you know low balling the actuals. I think there is no way that you know they can increase the CapEx and decrease the revenue guidance. I think there is some sort of, you know, everything basically that iron does is fake and it's always, you know, they give you data points, but you have to apply common sense to interpret it. Like the same way that they have said we are going to deliver 76,000 B three hundreds out of 200 MW IT load with a PUE of 1.5. It's it's not really like that they have allocated 300 megawatts and out of that they are going to reserve 200 MW of IT load. But 67,000 B three hundreds don't draw 200 megawatts of IT load no matter how many supercluster cables and network core buildings you attach to them. It's just not going to do that. And the reason is that they don't want to tap into the into that free IT load that they will have if they run only B3GB3 hundreds. It's because the purpose of the building says VR200 and a substitution clause will be applied within the 200 megawatts of IT load. And future swaps from whatever GB 300 to VR200, you know during or after the Microsoft contract will also still be within that same IT load allocation. So I think that iron is sort of like, you know, reserving this capacity indefinitely for Horizon one to four. And so if you are looking just at the numbers as they are, it looks terrible, right. Everyone has said that Microsoft contract looks really bad. And why is the top line so good for Niebius who has the same megawatts because it turns out and that's what no one is talking about is that it's actually matters how many GPUs you run in there. So, you know, iron is sort of under under utilizing their data centers if they are going with GB three hundreds because it was designed for higher rec density chips. And you know, so at the same the same thing applies to their guidance as well in terms of ARR. If you just look at what they are saying, it's probably because they it's, you know, using as a methodology that makes no sense if you apply common sense. So, you know, it's just some people call it autistic, some people call it Australian culture, but it's just straight strata retarded. And you know, investors are global and we all have our own way of looking at these guidance numbers and the common consensus is it's makes no, absolutely no sense, right. So they have the the floor in 10 days from now or what is it 12 days from now and they going to have to deliver, they're going to have to talk about yeah, look, we guided for 3.7 billion. But yeah, sorry guys, we made a little bit of a mistake here. We forgot that we look back and it's we have to look forward because it's forward-looking guidance. So we're going to increase our guidance to four point X billion, you know like this, this would make the most sense because Dan was saying on our space that they that they have expect prepayments for capacity coming from the 50,000 GB 50,000 B 300. That means customer contracts are already being negotiated for capacity that's coming online later this year. So if customer contracts are being negotiated because prepayments are being you know prepared, that means rates are also locked in. And if rates are locked in, you're going to have to increase your guidance if the rates are better than what you told us previously. So I think that, you know, there's a time for sandbagging and there's a time for playing, you know, opening your carts to the market. Because if your, if your quarter is underwhelming because you had only 4X to your $17 million from last December, I think you, you would really have to talk some shop with the, with the, with the investors, right? I mean, I am, I'm all for surprising to the upside, but you got to come with a surprise and not announce the announcement every time. So yes, I think that's how I look at it and I, I really expect something big from them at or before earnings. I'm still clinging on to my 75% probability.

Frans Bakker: Of a deal.

Speaker 4: Before or at earnings and the deal would be something in you know, something with either the announcement of Microsoft 5, Horizon 5 to 6 and or something maybe Entropic, I don't know, possibly a kind of flats or or something like that. There are a couple of things that I think are very likely. But let's say worst case, none of these things materialize like there will be no announcement of a customer. They just deliver on their contracted revenue and they say, yeah, we had $400 million last earnings contracted ARR we have now you know we signed $535 million by March 31st. So we have beaten our own contracted guidance. But then if they are going to say, but actual AI revenue was only $60 million, you know the market's going to be unhappy. So you have to counter that with a proper guidance like now is not the time to send back because if your numbers are underwhelming and all your contracted revenue is pointing to the future, like yes, now we have it signed, but they are coming in the next quarter. I swear you guys it's kind of gum. Then you're going to have to be more open with your guidance for the end of the year and maybe start to talk about 2027 and favorite Rubin and expected revenue coming from that. And you know, just don't be like some of the our peers that don't say anything about commercials and just show train wreck of PNL and then talk about massive end of year guide ARR numbers. I think it is time for iron to choose a path and looking back and sandbagging your way out of this and just keep building and putting your head down and executing. It's, you know, of course I like this. But you know, given the $6 billion ATM and what's at stake here, I think they have to be a bit more conscious of, you know, your, your guidance is, is really your lifeline in terms of, you know, your share price. I think if you're going to fumble the football and give shit guidance with regards to, you know, your, your CapEx and the market's expectation, just because you are not 100% sure. I mean, all these legal disclaimers that are baked in all these filings and announcements, just just use them and just, you know, be a bit more bullish on your own business, right? I think that's what I want to see.

SI: Yeah, I have the same line of thinking France honestly, honestly, I don't care about Sweetwater announcements or Horizon announcements or any other things. At least show us the guidance card properly. That's that's something is in your hand. So if you have sent back that guidance at least, I mean, I mean, at least they can show that card at least they owe us that much as what I'm thinking about. Yeah. But thanks for answering all this patiently. Thank you guys.

Speaker 4: No worries, Michael, you're up next.

Speaker 1: Hey guys, yeah, I'm sitting in a sauna and my phone battery is like dying by the 2nd, so there's a chance that I get knocked off of here, but couple comments, one on like the demand environment and then the second on like management and shareholder sentiment, so.

SI: The first up, I've got like a few $1,000,000 of exposure. So I'm definitely, you know, exposed to iron and, and I've been in it for over a year, you know, started buying when it was about 10 or so, you know, on the demand side, obviously a lot of people have been talking about Anthropic. I get, I see a lot of like SPV secondary deals and stuff just being kind of in the startup tech world. I, I heard that they were going to raise at 800 billion and they've tabled that and they're moving the valuation up to 1.3 trillion. We'll see if that 100% materializes. I heard is opening up this week at 1.3 trillion. You'd imagine they're going to raise at least 100 billion. And obviously the big issue that they have right now is supporting demand and, and the product is really degraded because of the lack of your compute infrastructure available to them. And obviously there's like an arms race going on with open AI in them and open AI is taking some of their, their market share right now. So they clearly are going to need to spend a ton of money. I'm not sure exactly where they're going to get that capacity and this year and next year outside of companies like like iron. So I thought that was interesting. And then the second to some like the, you know, I, I saw people calling for like this, you know, Dan, the CEO to step down today and stuff like that. The investor base is is super.

Speaker 1: Impractical and impatient. You know, generally not everybody, but generally I mean at the end of the day, there's been a six month kind of consolidation period after the stock ran up what 10X from 4-5 dollars or something even more than that up to the the peak. And in the management team has been pretty clear from the start that, you know, they're going to be patient, they're building these things out, they're going to be prudent about signing deals.

SI: And, and they think that the demand environment is going to only get bigger and, and prices are only get higher. And obviously it seems like that's that's happened. So I mean, if we would have signed a bunch of shitty deals, you know, people would have been, you know, saying, saying bad shit about the management and, and the company. And then if we don't sign the deals, people talk shit. And I think people should just.

Speaker 1: Kind of sit back for a little bit and and kind of decide is this the company that they want to be in and is this the leadership team that they trust and if so, then.

SI: Trust it the same way that people did with, you know, Jeff Bezos and whatever 979899 when he said, you know, we're going to lose money, we're going to take, you know, it's going to take a lot of time to to get where we want to be. We're playing a bigger game. And obviously the management team could probably do a better job of articulating that. But I think that they have done and they just don't, you know, they don't care that much. They're a little brazen. They don't care that much about like the sentiment a little bit, but it obviously matters for like raising money and and and stuff like that. So just a couple points I want to bring up.

Speaker 4: Yeah, but it's, this is exactly, I don't know if you heard how you are articulating it yourself. It's you're, you're basically providing counterpoints to every point you raise. And that's why this is so sensitive. You know, like I, I haven't seen myself that people ask for Dan to step down. But, you know, his tweet was kind of controversial, you know, because on LinkedIn he replied to a post. And that, that was his comments. And then on Twitter, he didn't include that quoted post that he was replying to. So there was no contact. So the, the tweet read, read really weird. Like I, I honestly thought it was looking kind of bearish as well because, you know, without the context of the of the post that other companies are having delays. You know, instead of pounding himself on the chest, he just provided like a macro overview post. But that doesn't make any sense if you don't have to quote a post, you know, it without that post, the CEO of a company is talking about something that he's, he's doing himself, right. So that's why people were applying, you know, is he, is he setting us up for delays or so, you know, an honest mistake from a great guy. I mean, I, I really like Dan. I think he's a, he's a class actor CEO and you know, I, I put all my money on him as well. So, you know, I, I get it that people should not jump to conclusions, but you know, we are not all of us are on LinkedIn all the time. And I think it was a, a bit sloppy to not include that, you know, post. So I think I understand the sentiments yesterday or today for some of you that's around that tweet because, you know, it was just a bit poorly executed. But on the other hand, I'm not one of the one deal crowd. So I, I do agree with you there that that that is coming over across this very impatient and I think that's management deserves.

Frans Bakker: More.

Speaker 4: Credit when it comes to delivering, even though the, the one deal that they did deliver wasn't really impressive if you look at it at face value, because, like I just explained, the, the numbers are, are not what they appear to be and the, the market's just not that smart. You know, especially when you're dealing with algorithms and then with sell side analysts with different agendas. You know, the, the people that are the most in the weeds with this company are, are basically on Twitter. So, you know, I, it's not for no, I mean, I don't want to brag or something. It's not for no reason that, you know, my post about the arrival of the Transformers was quoted by Roth Capital Partners, right? I mean, it's just it's an example of how how you know, deep we go into due diligence here with satellite imagery, drone videos, people doing like drive by photo shoots at the data center size of iron. And you know, there's a lot of other things that are happening, you know, like networking here and there. So I don't, I just don't think that the the Southside and you know, the big boys in Wall Street have the same access to all these things. I do know that obviously there are, you know, a lot of financial institutions that do get to hear a lot of these things. You know, they are Privy to some Intel that we are unfortunately not don't have access to here. But I think going forward, I think it would really do iron well to just take AR guidance a little bit more serious. And I'm just going to use this as a little slap on the wrist because I think we know about your execution and we very well know about your supply chain and the procurement team. It's, it's, it's great, right? So if we want to extrapolate all your great efforts coming to fruition, at least give us something to you know, do a little bit of a sensitivity guidance or you know, if you remember in Bitcoin mining, Aaron had this table where they said if Bitcoin is 60,000 or 70,000 or 80 or 90 or 100, we will make this much EBITDA. And you know, they even forecasted their overheads and stuff like that. Electricity cost. I know it's not all that black and white or, or, you know, easy to do for GP us, you know, we buy 50,000 and we expect this much revenue, but at least make it fit the real world, right? I mean, the real world is showing increased pricing and for some reason iron has guided down their revenue mix in GPU, our revenue. So I think that was a bit of a weird one to say the least. So I guess we lost Michael due to the sauna because he's, he's no longer with us or maybe he left because I was going on too long. But I just think I, I do have patience. I have conviction. I just think they got, you know, up their game a little bit, especially with around earnings. I mean, people, all the people I talked to were not too happy with last earnings. Not because we dropped to 28th during the three CS, but just the whole delivery was just poor. They they gotta increase the traffic that they can accommodate to their own website. You know it is absolutely retarded. I'm sorry I can't find another word for this. That you are an AI company with data centers and you can't handle traffic going to your site. I mean if you are talking about yeah we are in control of our own destiny. We don't have customer service of Co located data centers that we need to call. I bet you that they had to call someone to fix their traffic to their site and it wasn't iron hosted. You know, if it was iron hosted, you know, how bad would that would even be? So, you know, I mean, it's just a detail that these earnings calls need to be something to look forward to. And I think a lot of people that are on this call and that are in my subscriber group are dreading earnings now because of, you know, crashing, crashing podcast or, or, or crushing web costs and free falling music. And, you know, I think paired this with the sandbagging, it's just, you know, it's time for a little bit of a change. But I'm hopeful that this is going to happen because I told this in I think it was in the last space or it was a space I joined with small cap sniper Iron has hired a lot of PR people and they are going to announce something around marketing as well. I think they're going to really up their game and I think that's that is a good thing. And I think, you know, ultimately that will also lead to better understanding of their business. I think the most heard comments I hear from institutional investors is that they don't get the business, you know, because it's too complex, it's too multi faceted. I think it will do the stock really well if Irene just talks shop more, you know, like be a little bit more, you know, straightforward with your expectations and rather than sandbagging, I know real world execution is a is a, you know, a constraint and it's probably also legally a limit on what you can say that you will be able to do. But you know, I think if Irene is so confident of their physical delivery and their head start in long lead time items procurement and grid connected power and their whole operational team, then you know, at least pair that with a little bit more concrete guidance. And you know like how we bought 50,000 GP US and we expecting to be delivered in a six month window, you know, like I think that's also too fake. It doesn't really speak into having a very solid supply chain at all. I mean, honestly, if you don't know when your GPUs will arrive in July or in December, then how are you really on top of your procurement? You know, I mean, is that fair or am I being completely irrational here? What do you think, Butcher?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I think it's rational in that see, I wish Michael was still up here because those unfamiliar with his background, he's got a $200 million startup and I would imagine that he didn't sell fund that. I again, I have a lot of respect for Michael and what he accomplished. But my point is, if you're seeking outside capital, whether it's the debt market or equity investors, you have to be able to tell your story. And I just always find myself wanting more, to be honest. And anecdotes of just even that tweet last night is just a microcosm of I think that Dan Meanswell and directionally he's correct and had the him and will are very prescient and bright guys. But I think sometimes it comes down to just telling your story better and showing for this site. We're waiting for Reuben. You know, like Sweetwater is not signed. I don't necessarily need to hear a deal, but I want to hear, OK, the we have liquid cooled infrastructure in place. We plan on using their Reubens there. There's plenty of demand. We have a partner in mind that we're starting to work with, but we haven't finalized deal at this time. It just like seems like there's some really low hanging fruit for communication that most of us, you know, I could understand someone here saying we're overreacting, but Franz has been here since it was, you know, 2-3 dollars. I've been here when I initially got in at $8 and bought as low as $5.00. So I think we've taken our fair share of licks in the marketplace to have an opinion on just that. They can do things a little better And we are, you know, $15 billion company or depending on the Share Account, maybe it's closer to 18 or 20 billion now. We'll figure that out soon, but that comes with expectations and that doesn't make me any less bullish about the company. But I just think we have to hold as shareholders, we hold our leaders accountable. And I always tell people in my business, I wouldn't ask you something if I didn't think you were capable of it. So if Dan listens back to this or Mike listens back to it, like we're providing constructive feedback of what we'd like to see. And no, we don't run multi billion dollar businesses. And I know there's challenges that we're unfamiliar with, but it does appear on the surface that there are items that are pretty easy that would help them going forward 'cause if you're going to build Sweetwater, and that's one GW, that's roughly a forty $50 billion project. You have a $6 billion ATM. You know, I don't think they want to sell shares in the 30s, which I think if this call were to go poorly, there's the potential. I don't, I want to make it clear, I don't think this is what's going to happen. But if they didn't execute this upcoming call, well, there's the potential to revisit the 40s and kind of just linger and have the same questions about their execution, despite the anecdotes. So I just, I really hope they savor this opportunity because ultimately they've shown the ability to get good GPU financing. That's encouraging. But they have to build all this infrastructure. And since they're doing Greenfield sites, eventually once Horizon One through 4 is completed, they could refinance those and recycle that capital. But it's not there yet. So they have to front load all of this capital investment on the front end and the only way to do so right now is via convertible notes in the ATM. And to not dilute us any further, it's more optimal for the share price to be higher. And for the share price to be higher, they have to tell a better story. So it might sound like bitching because it is, but it's it's rational bitching. So that's my addition to the rant funds. Thanks.

Speaker 4: I see there are a couple of people that want to come up and speak. I'm gonna allow them to come up. You know, I'm not only critical of what they've done, but, you know, there's just a couple of things that I agree with you. They can do better. I just, I'm a, I'm a little bit tired of seeing them do things that they haven't told us about. And, you know, this is, this is going across all the operations and sites. You know, we've seen them build a data center in Prince George that they haven't told us about. And then they tell us about it in the earnings and six months later it's immaterial. And we've seen them sponsor the Sydney Swans and run ads on trams in South Australia that make absolutely zero sense. And you know, they are they going to tell us about it this earnings. I mean, sometimes it feels a bit of a curse to be ahead of the curve. You know, sometimes we know about things well before they are announced, and that can sometimes be detrimental to being patient. So that's why it's good to have these weekly meetups here online so we can tell each other that it's all going to be all right. But let's hear it from little Mafia. What's up, Mr. France? How are you, Butcher? How's the canyons? How's everything, man?

₿itcoin ₿utcher: I need the share price higher so that I can pay to come back here. Mafia. But everything's great. Thank you for asking.

Speaker 4: I I've been in this roller coaster for almost a year. We always have the uncertain with iron, but market did pretty amazing in the last two weeks. I'm amazed with the amount of volume. And if you see the chart of the last six months every every time we have this accumulation of volume, it's because you know, market knows. Like I said to you friends in the chat many times, I'm a little worried about the delivery of Microsoft. Not in a bad way, just I'm a little, I know we're going to deliver in time, but I, I wish we we could have a little more of what's going to happen or how it's going to happen if we're going to have a testimonial video, because it's going to be, I mean, we are, we are all expecting Irene to deliver Microsoft. It's one of my favorite parts of this earning call. Yeah. Well, I spoke to that earlier in the space. I think they are going to to you know talk about that, how they delivered the first building and how the rest is just going to be copy paste. So I think they're and that's actually true. I think that's going to be one part of the delivery to Microsoft that they will speak on and secondly, I think they will announce something with regards to the substitution clause because that's also within the Microsoft contract. So those two things could be bundled together. It would it would be very good if they could get a quote from someone high-ranking at Microsoft to say something about, you know, the project. Obviously we know that these guys visit the site regularly as I it's also something I saw in the comments. Or why are they demolishing mining buildings to, to produce liquid cooled capacity in Childress as opposed to just build new data centers in Sweetwater. I think that is entirely customer driven. So I think customers in this regards, Microsoft would rather have their data centers clustered together for obvious cluster reasons or for, you know, the fact that they prefer the future of Children's over having their compute in Sweetwater. I mean, there is something to say about Children's being a better location than Sweetwater on paper. If you look at the fiber connectivity, for example, Children's is right on the backbone between Dallas and Denver, I believe. Yes, and there are some projects that Zio is going to upgrade fiber on that backbone in 20-30, which means that it's going to become like a super. I don't know, I don't know the word for it, but it's it's the the highest bandwidth or the lowest. Millisecond, whatever and I think that is Childress is right on that backbone line. So I think that for future, you know, projects, future computes, a player like Microsoft looks into these things because you know in 3 1/2 years you're already there. It's within the contract. It's probably beneficial for their, you know, latency. So I would say that that is. And another thing is there is no airport in the middle of nowhere, but there is an airport in Children's. So a couple of things why reasons why I think they would rather expand the capacity over there if I was Microsoft, But that doesn't mean Sweetwater is a bad side. I have a lot to say about Sweetwater, but I just got this satellite image early this morning so I haven't really processed it yet. But as I can see it now, a lot of cables have been connected but the bulk substation from iron is only partially finished. But I think that that doesn't mean they can't energize it because I think they're bulk substation in children's, for example, was only 50%, you know, occupied originally, but it was running for a long time as well. So I will have to make a complete analysis of this. But there is no construction yet of data centers. But the site looks prime to start construction. So yeah, that's my two cents based on what you said. I don't know if you have any other questions or comments. No, I just want to thank you both of you guys. You do good Alpha, you support us. I think there's a lot of people here that understand that iron is long term, but in the meantime, it could be a very short term because we have too much catalysis in the, in the door. And I wish iron team to deliver. And that's, that's the most important thing, you know, because you see all the new views and the coral weave and all these guys talking about price action and they know nothing. And I, I really appreciate all, all the alpha, all all the insights you give in the chat And I, I don't know, I, I just want to say thank you. No worries, man. Thanks for your support as well. Happy to have you in our only friends group. Super Saiyan. Are you bullish?

SI: Yeah, I've been listening to you guys again. Thanks for hosting it tonight as well. I mean for me, I mean, nothing has changed for me. I'm I'm definitely still bullish. I mean, I just look at the hardcore facts and the first day almost two years ago when I invested, invested for the fact that I knew that there would be a constraint around this year with AI compute and and iron would be in the middle of everything and it completely played out. I mean, in North America, we know they're the only one who has 1.4 gigabyte power ready almost for the Sweetwater one. So I'm very bullish. But then again, I, I, I have to also I look, I, I analyze the points that butcher and you made. And it also makes sense that a lot of the delivery and communication could be better, but I just don't think it would it would have a huge impact, right? Like, I mean, I've seen Cypher, Wolf, Hot, they all made deals and they were, they were good deals, right? But it's not something that is like extraordinary, right? For me, what was extraordinary is when the first time Nabius made a deal with Microsoft and I and I, I was in that trade. It went from 45, I believe in the news came out within two days to $90.00, I believe. So for me, that was a good shocker, right? Because I've never seen a deal primed like that. And that being said, I think Iran is still on tracks to to cover what it needs to cover. And looking at Dan's recent tweet, I mean, that seemed bullish to me. I've seen a lot of comments saying that, oh, like he could be hinting there could be delay, but I just don't see how it just seemed like he shared a link where it says that there's delays with data centers, right. If I'm ACEO and I'm gonna post something like that, that's me basically saying, well, there's delays, But guess what, you know, just hint in I don't have one that that's how I took that. But if people took it the other way, I have no problem with that. So that being said, I'm, I'm pretty much bullish and I do think my gut feeling is saying again, it's, it's not, it's just a fun guess. I, I think by next week we should hear something from them either about the Sweetwater one being energized or there, there should be some sort of communication, right, 'cause Irene knows they said it in the past that around April it should be done. And we also remember them doing monthly reports. So they're very big on delivery and that's something they are boastful about in a good way. So yeah, that being said, I'm I would say I'm still bullish.

Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm bullish too. I've said that I'm bullish May. That means that doesn't mean I'm not bullish for the last four days of April, but I just think there's a, you know, the people were expecting some kind of announcement on Monday. I think that's not not necessarily going to happen. I think they're the Monday is a public holiday in Australia and I think, you know, they will take these things into consideration even though when the market opens on Monday in the US, it's already, I don't know, very late, I guess. No, it will already be be on Tuesday if we are 4 hours difference. Yeah, it's, it's going to be twelve, 12:30 AM. Oh, hey, look, it is Shawn Swanson who wants to come up and talk. It's our favorite bear. Maybe he has something positive or bullish to say this time. I think we are now running into two hours. Oh no, I started an hour later. So we've only been an hour. Hey Sean, are you bullish or bearish? I'm.

Speaker 1: Probably like the most negative bull out there. I know that we spoke last week and just goes back to like kind of, it's kind of ironic that we're talking about communication. Just found one last time. I was just kind of talking about like their management team seeming to be not quite hitting like the opportunities like you said. So I guess my question is kind of going back, 'cause it's, you know, one of the things like as I consume other investor books, it's always having the ability to go back to your thesis and kind of stress test it, not try to protect it, but always try to try to like see, like, you know, where am I, where am I being wrong, being bullish and you know, am I wrong and things like that. So I guess my question is 2/1 is let's just play this out as kind of game theory. Like if for some reason, you know, they don't hit their Marks and you're decide to make a rotation, have you already had like considerations of like business sectors that you would go in? Like maybe you would not say, oh, I would go into company XY or Z, but maybe I would go into like photonics or like a different type of like memory or, or something else like foundry. And then this. The second question is, I've just noticed like one of the biggest kind of bulls on the market was like Hanter. And I've noticed that, and this might be like super old news, but I've seen that their price target has been slashed 3 Times Now from like 1:30 to 82. And I just wanted to kind of get your guys's opinion on that since you guys have been in it. And obviously you guys have been in it so early that, you know, I guess from your lens it's like how much is enough and you know, if they start to not come through.

Speaker 4: OK, so I'll take the second one first 'cause that's easy. I, I strongly believe Southside analysts have multiple agendas and I happen to know that some people high up in Kantor had a bad experience with the IRA management team last year with regards to, you know, I think Kantor was willing to finance something for the Oklahoma side which didn't happen. And then they got left on read or something. It was like a little bit of awkward thing. I think that someone high up at Cantor just said OK brat, slash it, just fuck them over and that's what they do. I mean respectfully, sell side analysts are fucking bitches. They will just do whatever their boss tells them to do. And if their boss has a a crutch against someone, then you know, they will slash. And I was a quite big fan of Brad because he was, you know, he's made the most sense because I think honestly, I think he's not personally believing in this price targets. I think he's just doing what's been told to him. So that's I think generally I think you should just take sell side analyst with a grain of salt. I know I am probably ruining my chances of ever working together with them but you know I honestly don't give shit because I am independent so I will just be my own sell side analyst and I don't need anyone else to tell me when to sell iron. So that goes back to your first topic. What am I going to sell Iron for if they they mess up? Well, you know, this is again the whole story from last time. You know, do I want to entertain the thought that Iron will miss their, you know, execution for Microsoft and others and fumble the football and completely fail as an investment? You know, I don't know if I'm ready to do that. I do want to take bear cases serious. I want to not don't want to underestimate execution risk and things like that. But it goes a little bit far to talk about rotation when they are in the middle of delivery or not even in the middle. They're in the 3rd or 4th inning. I do can't, I can't talk to you about diversification. Sure. I mean I have, I have some exposure to photonics. I have $17.00 January 27th synthetic longs on POET which I entered when they were seven and $8 around 7-8 dollars and POET is now 15 or $16.00 almost. So you can you know, I am very happy because I got paid like 9 1/2 dollars in credit for the synthetics and I could buy them probably back on the on the market on Monday for like 3 or $4.00 or no I guess maybe even less. Which means I have very nice return on them in just a matter of months 'cause bow it ran up from like 5 or $6 all the way to you know, $16.00 almost now. So, you know, I think photonics is a very interesting market and they are probably not the only or the best choice in in stocks. But I don't want to talk too much about stocks. There are so many choices. I think in the, you know, I think we are entering a very bullish year for stocks. I think the May has just been, you know, revised to be even more bullish than it was. I saw some projection from a quartz where May is now in the third quad or something. I don't exactly know how this how this is being measured, but it sounds bullish to me. I think Trump will probably pump the markets going into midterms. If there is anything left to save, we will we will get a better fat chair. I think for markets there are a lot of reasons to be bullish and I think you can probably not be wrong with the picking a different stock outside of obviously picking losers. So let's entertain the fact if there would be a forced rotation, if I would see that OK, they have failed on Microsoft Delivery and Iron is a terrible company, then I would probably full port short on an EBS. Because if Iron can't deliver it, then sure as hell a bunch of incompetent Russian software guys cannot deliver AI infrastructure at scale. So you know, that would be the easiest short of a lifetime in that situation. So if there would be a rotation, it would probably be that one. You know, I never seen myself as a full porch short guy. But you know, if we are entertaining the what if, then that would be my first thought honestly. So I hope that answers answers your question.

Speaker 1: It does. Do you use a cover, a ladder cover call strategy on all of your on any of your positions to like scrape premiums at all?

Speaker 4: No, I don't really use that's tactic, but I what I do some I, I do have a bull spread, a bull call spreads. So you know, long for example, I have long 34 short 115 or 110 for January on iron, which I initiated when iron was $34. So I kind of bought the call at the money and I sold the call, you know, at a very high strike price. So these are these are obviously already very green, but that means that the the short call will, you know, it's super red and we'll probably you know, there is a very reasonable situation that Iran actually exceeds $110 by January. If they do what I think they will do, if the market will front run their 2027 results because they have a very good execution in 2026, then the you know, by my projections we could exceed $100 as soon as August, you know, So you know, in that, in that situation, those spreads will just be what they are. I will just reap the spread and that's it. But that's a cap upside. But no, I'm not going to cover my calls, sorry. I'm not going to cover my my core shares with laddered covered calls going into the best year of iron ever. You know, I mean, they are going to announce so many catalysts and you know, in the coming months and maybe in the coming 18 months. You know, that would be stupid to sell covered calls in this period of time because I've seen people in my subscriber group selling calls for $50.52 dollars, $51 last week that were like losing half of their hair because it was just how can Iran all of a sudden breakthrough a call wall and then finish the week above $50 when we were all so sure that they needed a deal for that, You know, so I think selling covered calls, obviously I'm not giving investment advice or financial advice, but I would be very wary with selling covered calls in the coming. Because as volatile as iron is going down, we can have the same move going up. And I say that from experience with the stock. So, you know, just to put it out there and everyone is free to do what they want. If you sell covered calls, just be ready to pay the price if we do RIP.

Speaker 1: Are you adding more besides the call spreads that you've done, like to your long position?

Speaker 4: No, not, not really. I'm, I'm, I'm basically fully allocated. I did the last thing I thought was did was a single $75 synthetic long when we were 7047 1/2 dollars. So I, I usually what I like to do is if I have a free margin, I will go long synthetic at the money because those will you can usually buy them for a 0 or or a credit. So that means you, you pay nothing or you get paid to enter the synthetic long. If you have enough conviction that it will go up, you will RIP double hard because you know your entry price is either negative or zero. And then everything that happens above your strike price is a massive upside. So the the returns are. Like exponentially phenomenal. It's great. But you know, obviously the flip side is if the stock goes down, you're you're probably forced to buy them at the money which is sent 47 1/2 dollars. If that's OK with you, then whatever. So that's what I do. I sometimes go synthetic long at the money, but it's, I have a, my, my broker is Interactive Brokers and I have a margin account and they, they punish concentration a lot. So for me, it's not just like, oh, I have some spare cash. I'm going to buy a couple of extra shares. It's I, I am currently allocated to the to the tits. So I'm going to let it roll and I'm going to make my decisions going forward, you know, as the story unfolds this year. So yeah.

Speaker 1: I appreciate all your feedback and creating this this format. I'm not, I don't come here to like be negative. It's just like I'm always like trying to like make sure I'm not incorrect, you know, and I, I really respect everyone's research and time that they put into this. So thank you guys.

Speaker 4: Yeah, you're welcome. And I gladly welcome critical views and negative views. You know, just to make sure that people realize this is not an echo chamber. I won't censor negative views or people with opposing views. It's just, it's, it's good to have a, a bit of an alternative look on things. But I am confident that they will execute on what they have entered into. I just hope that they are going to become a little bit more you know realistic with their forward-looking guidance in terms of ARR and you know I think we will see with the next earnings how they will do that. I just realized we are way over 2 hours. So I am going to close the space here. Now it's time for, you know, for some rest and the market, the pre market will open in a little less than four hours. So it's looking good. I hope everyone had a great space and I will for my subscribers. I will publish a post with the Sweetwater super high definition satellite imagery later today. So something to look forward to. Thanks everyone for joining Butcher. Thanks so much for taking the time to join us from your holiday and it's I wish you a nice last couple of days there and safe trip home and talk to you next week. And thanks for the speakers and thanks everyone for joining. Have a great Sunday night or a Monday and see you next week. Bye.